How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017) • Hacker News Board

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#41

Post by Loughla » Fri, Feb 28, 2020, 6:01 PM UTC

howmayiannoyyou wrote: post #22

I fear we are going to regret not taking draconian measures right now. Mandatory social distancing right now likely could buy additional time for the healthcare system to advance preparations for a wide scale outbreak, including stockpiling additional PPE and advancing triage procedures. It provides valuable time for drug & medical device manufacturers to ramp up production of needed supplies and drugs that should be…

Flip side of your argument, just for brevity's sake.

I fear many governments and leaders are going to use this as an excuse to take full control and become the tin-pot dictators they want to be through those same draconian measures.

So here we are.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#42

Post by smacktoward » Fri, Feb 28, 2020, 6:01 PM UTC

It may be worth noting that while this piece presents it as settled that the Spanish flu originated in Kansas, that's not really the case. The author of this piece, John Barry, has long been an advocate for that position, but there are other theories of origination as well supported by at least as much evidence as the Kansas theory.

Wikipedia has a write-up on the various theories of origination here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Hypotheses_about_t...

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#43

Post by Loughla » Fri, Feb 28, 2020, 6:02 PM UTC

macintux wrote: post #32

PopePompus wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the CDC merely urged that all large gatherings be cancelled, that would probably result in the cancellation of 95% of them, with no constitutional implications.

Can they at this point? It seems like their authority has been emasculated.

I don't understand what you mean by this.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#44

Post by sadfev » Fri, Feb 28, 2020, 6:03 PM UTC

Here comes the fear mongering. We are far better equipped to handle epidemics and pandemics now than 100 years ago.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#45

Post by vikramkr » Fri, Feb 28, 2020, 6:03 PM UTC

wincy wrote: post #15

jtdev wrote: post #7

“ Philadelphia had scheduled a big Liberty Loan parade for September 28. Doctors urged Krusen to cancel it, fearful that hundreds of thousands jamming the route, crushing against each other for a better view, would spread disease. They convinced reporters to write stories about the danger. But editors refused to run them, and refused to print letters from doctors. The largest parade in Philadelphia’s history proceede…

For the USA at least, wouldn't imposing a ban rather than a recommendation be a violation of the Constitutional right to freedom of assembly?

Legal eagle did a video on Youtube that came out yesterday that seemed to suggest that the government has leeway in cases of pandemics (sort of like in wartime) that it wouldn't have otherwise. It might technically be unconstitutional under some readings of it, but SCOTUS might rule that it's warranted.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#46

Post by jtdev » Fri, Feb 28, 2020, 6:03 PM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #35

jtdev wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add a little context: I’m currently scheduled to attend a ~50000 attendee international conference in the U.S. My employer has sponsored - and I’m not in a position to refuse to attend (yet). The host org is standing firm on pushing forward as scheduled, but has released a bunch of PR B.S. communications about hand sanitizer, face masks, etc. being provided and quarantine of symptomatic individuals at the event (n…

Out of curiosity, what conference is that big? NAB?

HIMSS (Health Information and Management Systems Society), the irony is just...

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#47

Post by astine » Fri, Feb 28, 2020, 6:03 PM UTC

dragontamer wrote: post #3

> In 1918, medicine had barely become modern; some scientists still believed “miasma” accounted for influenza’s spread. Does anyone know where I can learn more about the "miasma" model of disease? Whenever I'm looking up old plagues / diseases / etc. etc., they bring up the "miasma" model. But what is the miasma theory (or pseudo-science?) that people used to believe in? And how does it differ from our modern germ th…

Miasma theory was the belief that it was the smells themselves that caused the disease, or rather, that bad air which was synonymous with with bad smell, that caused disease. The plague doctor outfits, for example, were not actually airtight. The 'beak' contained incenses and perfumes intended to protect against miasma by preventing smelling of bad smells. It actually was not very effective (fleas getting in through under the coat was among the many defects,) and the mortality rates of plague doctors was very high.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#48

Post by mc32 » Fri, Feb 28, 2020, 6:05 PM UTC

bcrosby95 wrote: post #30

moultano wrote: post #13

For those of you reading this from the bay area, we already have suspected community transmission 50 miles away, in a town with a lot of people who commute to the Bay. If it's easy for you to work from home, consider doing so, giving explicit permission to your reports to do so, and asking your manager to give permission to their reports to do so. We're fortunate to be in an industry where WFH has relatively little c…

I'm not sure why officials haven't come out suggesting things like this. And to avoid non-mandatory travel. It's probably a bit late for this stuff from a containment perspective. But it would help reduce the r0. Speaking personally, I have to decide by mid March if we should take our trip to Legoland in San Diego. Right now I'm leaning towards "no". And I don't imagine the outlook will be much better in just 2 weeks…

Anecdotally, companies are sending communication whereby company-related travel is restricted and requires approval from the chief health officer in the company/HR.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#49

Post by microcolonel » Fri, Feb 28, 2020, 6:05 PM UTC

moultano wrote: post #13

For those of you reading this from the bay area, we already have suspected community transmission 50 miles away, in a town with a lot of people who commute to the Bay. If it's easy for you to work from home, consider doing so, giving explicit permission to your reports to do so, and asking your manager to give permission to their reports to do so. We're fortunate to be in an industry where WFH has relatively little c…

> We don't have to wait for the government to give us guidance.

I can not stress this enough, if you have the ability to do something at relatively little cost, which will delay or prevent the unnecessary spread of this virus, you have a moral obligation to execute on that ability. If you live in a major city or a city near one, it is probably in your community already, and the key thing that will reduce the deaths in this outbreak is reducing the peak load on hospitals.

Hospitals will be placed under extreme strain, and the quality of care will decline with the volume. A significant proportion of those suffering confirmed COVID-19 require oxygen and/or ventilatory support. Ventilatory support in hypoxemic patients relies on many highly specialized personnel and consumable resources, and keeping the rate of infection low enough that these facilities are sufficient is of great importance.

Do not hesitate to act now, even if you will be questioned later on your authority to do so.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#50

Post by vikramkr » Fri, Feb 28, 2020, 6:06 PM UTC

sadfev wrote: post #44

Here comes the fear mongering. We are far better equipped to handle epidemics and pandemics now than 100 years ago.

Part of that is rapid transfer of information though - I could argue that the ability to rapidly spread fear of the disease to get people to worry and change their behaviors helps make us better at dealing with pandemics than when the news and the government would push propoganda saying there's nothing to worry about. I don't know if I would argue that or complete believe that argument since I agree with you that a lot of this is needless fear mongering and there are likely detrimental effects to that, but I don't know if it's as cut and dry?