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How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

smithsonianmag.com

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Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#31

Post by tzs »

wincy wrote: post #15
jtdev wrote: post #7

“ Philadelphia had scheduled a big Liberty Loan parade for September 28. Doctors urged Krusen to cancel it, fearful that hundreds of thousands jamming the route, crushing against each other for a better view, would spread disease. They convinced reporters to write stories about the danger. But editors refused to run them, and refused to print letters from doctors. The largest parade in Philadelphia’s history proceede…

For the USA at least, wouldn't imposing a ban rather than a recommendation be a violation of the Constitutional right to freedom of assembly?

Restrictions on that right are subject to "strict scrutiny", which is the highest standard of judicial review.

To satisfy it, the government has to show that it has a compelling state interest and that their solution is narrowly tailored to serve that interest.

Curfews for public safety after natural disasters like fires and floods, or to prevent spread of disease, or in times of extreme civil unrest like riots have been found to meet the strict scrutiny standard.

Since a ban on large gatherings is less of an imposition on your freedom of assembly than a curfew, I'd expect that it would be allowed.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#32

Post by macintux »

PopePompus wrote: post #25
wincy wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the USA at least, wouldn't imposing a ban rather than a recommendation be a violation of the Constitutional right to freedom of assembly?

If the CDC merely urged that all large gatherings be cancelled, that would probably result in the cancellation of 95% of them, with no constitutional implications.

Can they at this point? It seems like their authority has been emasculated.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#33

Post by [deleted] »

bcrosby95 wrote: post #30
moultano wrote: post #13

For those of you reading this from the bay area, we already have suspected community transmission 50 miles away, in a town with a lot of people who commute to the Bay. If it's easy for you to work from home, consider doing so, giving explicit permission to your reports to do so, and asking your manager to give permission to their reports to do so. We're fortunate to be in an industry where WFH has relatively little c…

I'm not sure why officials haven't come out suggesting things like this. And to avoid non-mandatory travel. It's probably a bit late for this stuff from a containment perspective. But it would help reduce the r0. Speaking personally, I have to decide by mid March if we should take our trip to Legoland in San Diego. Right now I'm leaning towards "no". And I don't imagine the outlook will be much better in just 2 weeks…

[deleted]

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#34

Post by smacktoward »

dragontamer wrote: post #3

> In 1918, medicine had barely become modern; some scientists still believed “miasma” accounted for influenza’s spread. Does anyone know where I can learn more about the "miasma" model of disease? Whenever I'm looking up old plagues / diseases / etc. etc., they bring up the "miasma" model. But what is the miasma theory (or pseudo-science?) that people used to believe in? And how does it differ from our modern germ th…

In a nutshell, miasma theory argued that illness was transmitted through the air, which could be poisoned by emissions from rotting organic matter. If you breathed this poisoned air, the theory said, you got sick. "Bad" air could be distinguished from "good" air by its offensive odor -- the stronger the odor, the worse the miasma. The way you prevented disease was by removing things that smelled bad to somewhere people weren't.

The miasma theory fell short compared to germ theory in several respects. While germs can be transmitted through air, for instance, they can also be transmitted through water, physical contact, etc. -- so miasma theory was spectacularly unhelpful in dealing with diseases like cholera, which is transmitted through water. There are also lots of situations where germs can be present even though there's no obvious bad smell, so miasma theory is no help there. Germ theory can explain why a doctor who doesn't sanitize his instruments between operations can pass an infection from one patient to another, for example; miasma theory cannot. And since it identifies the germ as the underlying vehicle of transmission, germ theory provides a means of protection -- kill the germ and you prevent the transmission. Miasma theory had no explanation for what exactly in the supposed miasma was causing the transmission, so its prophylactic utility was limited.

It's one of those things where people very early on made an intuitive observation (that being in places full of things that smelled bad tended to make people sick), and since that observation was "good enough" to make it useful in a lot of cases, it became part of the conventional wisdom. But once the scientific approach started finally being applied to medicine, its limitations became clear.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#35

Post by AnimalMuppet »

jtdev wrote: post #29
jtdev wrote: post #7

“ Philadelphia had scheduled a big Liberty Loan parade for September 28. Doctors urged Krusen to cancel it, fearful that hundreds of thousands jamming the route, crushing against each other for a better view, would spread disease. They convinced reporters to write stories about the danger. But editors refused to run them, and refused to print letters from doctors. The largest parade in Philadelphia’s history proceede…

To add a little context: I’m currently scheduled to attend a ~50000 attendee international conference in the U.S. My employer has sponsored - and I’m not in a position to refuse to attend (yet). The host org is standing firm on pushing forward as scheduled, but has released a bunch of PR B.S. communications about hand sanitizer, face masks, etc. being provided and quarantine of symptomatic individuals at the event (n…

Out of curiosity, what conference is that big? NAB?

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#36

Post by js2 »

While doing ancestry research years ago, I learned I had a 2nd great uncle who immigrated to America from Romania aboard the RMS Carpathia in 1904. (Eight years later in 1912, this would be the first ship to come to the Titanic’s rescue, and six years after that would itself be sunk by a U-Boat.) He had left Romania likely to escape anti-semitism. He’d eventually find his way out to Denver. Sadly, he’d die in 1918 (the same year the Carpathia was sunk) at the age of 25, very probably from the flu.

This is a picture of him, along with his headstone and declaration of intent to become a citizen:

- https://ibb.co/xggjjnJ (Photo)

- https://ibb.co/vvnSqMg (Headstone)

- https://ibb.co/zmNzdC9 (Declaration)

Google Maps for his Denver, CO address:

- https://goo.gl/maps/CvmeCsUARnwXNnBu6

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#37

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

bcrosby95 wrote: post #30
moultano wrote: post #13

For those of you reading this from the bay area, we already have suspected community transmission 50 miles away, in a town with a lot of people who commute to the Bay. If it's easy for you to work from home, consider doing so, giving explicit permission to your reports to do so, and asking your manager to give permission to their reports to do so. We're fortunate to be in an industry where WFH has relatively little c…

I'm not sure why officials haven't come out suggesting things like this. And to avoid non-mandatory travel. It's probably a bit late for this stuff from a containment perspective. But it would help reduce the r0. Speaking personally, I have to decide by mid March if we should take our trip to Legoland in San Diego. Right now I'm leaning towards "no". And I don't imagine the outlook will be much better in just 2 weeks…

Officials have to calibrate their guidance against how the general public will react. If they announce that you should try to stay home and cancel your travel plans, but the average Joe looks around and says "nah it's not really spreading in the US right now", how do you get him to actually stay home if/when it's absolutely necessary?

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#38

Post by moneil971 »

jtdev wrote: post #29
jtdev wrote: post #7

“ Philadelphia had scheduled a big Liberty Loan parade for September 28. Doctors urged Krusen to cancel it, fearful that hundreds of thousands jamming the route, crushing against each other for a better view, would spread disease. They convinced reporters to write stories about the danger. But editors refused to run them, and refused to print letters from doctors. The largest parade in Philadelphia’s history proceede…

To add a little context: I’m currently scheduled to attend a ~50000 attendee international conference in the U.S. My employer has sponsored - and I’m not in a position to refuse to attend (yet). The host org is standing firm on pushing forward as scheduled, but has released a bunch of PR B.S. communications about hand sanitizer, face masks, etc. being provided and quarantine of symptomatic individuals at the event (n…

I’ve been seeing quite a lot of major conferences being cancelled and/or large companies deciding not to attend. In many cases they’ve waited as long as possible before officially cancelling to see if things improve. I would think you have the right to express your concerns and decide not to attend - if enough people do the same, the event may be postponed or cancelled.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#40

Post by nostromo »

jtdev wrote: post #29
jtdev wrote: post #7

“ Philadelphia had scheduled a big Liberty Loan parade for September 28. Doctors urged Krusen to cancel it, fearful that hundreds of thousands jamming the route, crushing against each other for a better view, would spread disease. They convinced reporters to write stories about the danger. But editors refused to run them, and refused to print letters from doctors. The largest parade in Philadelphia’s history proceede…

To add a little context: I’m currently scheduled to attend a ~50000 attendee international conference in the U.S. My employer has sponsored - and I’m not in a position to refuse to attend (yet). The host org is standing firm on pushing forward as scheduled, but has released a bunch of PR B.S. communications about hand sanitizer, face masks, etc. being provided and quarantine of symptomatic individuals at the event (n…

Panic is unwarranted.

On the cruise ship, which is known for being full of old people, there were 3 deaths out of ~750 known cases. Almost everyone dying so far has had another medical issue or been very old. Reports now say that many people testing positive have no symptoms at all and aren't getting sick. There have been zero deaths of children so far, which is unlike the flu. The youngest death was in his mid 30s.

Everyone should chill. Visit with your parents or compromised friends on FaceTime for a few weeks. Wash your hands. Don't go to work sick. If you're pregnant take extra precautions. Otherwise live your normal life.

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