Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths • Hacker News Board

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#261

Post by jbay808 » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 4:21 PM UTC

mns wrote: post #141

nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

There's a difference between "my honest prediction is that this is legitimately going to get way worse, because of X, Y, and Z", and "I feel a psychological need to pretend that this small problem is much bigger than the information makes it seem, because I like drama".

I've been watching Canada's medical system's near-total non-reaction to this situation. Basically the measures they have taken are to caution people not to worry to much or discriminate against Chinese people. Based on that, our throughput of travellers, and the fact that asking people if they've been in Wuhan in the last two weeks is no longer good enough to rule out cases, it's obvious that it's just a matter of time before Canada has a serious outbreak.

When I crossed the US border recently, all they asked me was whether or not I've been to China.

I think it's just realistic to acknowledge that at some point we lose the containment game, and that's very likely happened already. Maybe the long term consequence is a flu season that is twice as lethal. Or maybe there will be a very effective vaccine that eraducates the virus next year. Who knows.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#262

Post by dredmorbius » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 4:22 PM UTC

A related item that's been languishing in HN's submissions queue: "Mapping Coronavirus, Responsibly"

https://www.esri.com/arcgis-blog/products/product/mapping/ma...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22427334

This looks at the geographic distribution of COVID-19, and ways of accurately (and non-emotionally) conveying that information. Existing infographics have tended to hide information as much as they reveal it.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#263

Post by oefrha » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 4:22 PM UTC

ggreer wrote: post #147

dannyw wrote: post #2

How much can we trust the data coming out of China?

Let's look at China's flu death stats to get an idea of how honest the government tends to be. From a 2018 article in a CCP-owned newspaper[1]: > The total number of flu deaths last year was 144, compared with 56 in 2016 and 41 in 2017. A recent article in The Global Times (a tabloid owned by the CCP's official newspaper) gives similar figures.[2] So China lies about flu deaths by 2-3 orders of magnitude . Who knows…

Can’t you see the word “reported” next to the stats? Most flu hospitalizations and deaths aren’t reported.

I encourage you to read U.S. CDC’s explanations on how they estimate flu hospitalizations and deaths. Only a small percentage is ever reported even in the U.S.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#264

Post by tathatsnice » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 4:23 PM UTC

checker659 wrote: post #115

I wish there was statistics available on mortality for people taking immunosuppressants (secondary immunosuppression).

I am also interested in this. If you find information on this, please post it here.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#265

Post by lucian1900 » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 4:23 PM UTC

vonquant wrote: post #23

lucian1900 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much can we trust the data coming from the American CDC? Why exactly would you distrust China, besides racism?

Oh let me see, perhaps it has something to do with China being a one-party state with a ripe history of human rights atrocities and pervasive censorship. Just look at SARS for an example of where trusting the official information from China made for a terrible idea.

And the US isn't a two party state with a ripe history (and present) of human rights atrocities and pervasive censorship?

Your view of China is almost entirely defined by US media, owned by capitalists. Perhaps consider they have an incentive to lie.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#266

Post by wozer » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 4:24 PM UTC

companyhen wrote: post #243

eecc wrote: post #35

People, if you haven’t yet go get the seasonal flu vaccine. Reduces burden on strained ops and your risk of getting double tapped

Are you saying the flu vaccine can help prevent covid-19? Just trying to clarify. I'm traveling to Asia in 3 weeks from US and haven't gotten the flu shot the past year. I got it in 2017 and got sick, 2018 and got sick, but last year I decided not to and didn't get sick at all. Maybe just a coincidence though.

No, it can't. But it can prevent getting both at the same time.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#267

Post by hiram112 » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 4:24 PM UTC

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #254

mns wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

The problem is in the healthcare capacities. I live in a country with ~2mio people. If you're patient zero here, you get a comfy private room, your own bed, 5 doctors, 10 nurses, whole research teams, respirators, priority with all the tests, examinations, etc. Same for patient 1, 2, 3. If 200k people get infected (10% of population), and only 10% of those need extra medical care, that's 20.000 people. We don't have…

> If you're patient zero here, you get a comfy private room, your own bed, 5 doctors, 10 nurses, whole research teams, respirators, priority with all the tests, examinations, etc. Same for patient 1, 2, 3.

I read a similar comment from someone on another forum. If you're certain this will end up a pandemic, with almost everyone eventually catching it, your best move is to catch the virus as soon as possible, ensuring you'll get the best care.

Though this assumes you can't get it a second time, after the antibodies are generated. This appears not to be the case with this virus, possibly.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#268

Post by TheOtherHobbes » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 4:26 PM UTC

zaroth wrote: post #245

learc83 wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As you said cruise ships skew much older than the general population, so this tells us very little about the actual mortality rate. All 4 people who died were in their 80s.

IMO it’s one of the best data points we have. As I understand it, everyone on the ship was exposed, everyone was tested, we know exactly how many people became infected, and under close to ideal treatment conditions, there have been (so far) 4 fatalities of elderly patients. Yes, this doesn’t tell you what happens with less than ideal care (higher fatality rates), or under different populations (lower fatality rates)…

Which makes it more or less identical to flu.

There are around 400,000 deaths from flu globally, every year. (The numbers vary by quite a bit.) And that's after vaccination efforts.

So far I'm seeing no evidence to persuade me this is significantly deadlier. Everything that has been said about COVID-19 - the stress on healthcare, and so on - has already been happening during flu waves. For decades.

The real difference is the scale of the response. Flu's effect on the economy is a little more than a rounding error, but not by much.

Because of the measures taken, this is likely to have very significant negative economic and social effects which will last far longer than the danger of infection.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#269

Post by mythrwy » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 4:29 PM UTC

arcticfox wrote: post #216

cm2187 wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, there is a doomer mentality that applies to everything (climate change, geopolitical tensions, etc) and which the media are more than happy to fuel to sell paper and commercials.

While I agree with the overall sentiment, in the context of a novel pandemic, downplaying the risks is far worse than overplaying them IMO.

True, but the same claims are made about the other things you mention also.

Boy who cried wolf story comes to mind.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#270

Post by qwerty456127 » Thu, Feb 27, 2020, 4:29 PM UTC

Given 0.2% chance to die I see no reason to care, I probably have higher chances to die in a car accident on any given day. Even if I were 80 years old I still would see no reason to worry about the 14.8% chance to die as I would probably have comparable chances to get a hear attack and die on any given day anyway.