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Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

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Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#221

Post by mrweasel »

LandR wrote: post #39
eecc wrote: post #35

People, if you haven’t yet go get the seasonal flu vaccine. Reduces burden on strained ops and your risk of getting double tapped

Isn't this something you can only get if you are in at risk group? I can't go to my doctor and just get a flu shot, I don't think?

Depending on where you live you can get a flu shot at your local pharmacy. You just have to pay, unless you're over a certain age, then it's free... Again depending one where you live.

One issue may be the availability of flu shots at this point. Also there is a small risk of getting sick from the shot, which would put you at increased risk if contracting Covid-19.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#222

Post by el_cujo »

zebrafish wrote: post #78

i know it's passe to rail on the media, but i think the hyperconnectedness of everyone is causing the amount of panic i'm sensing out there to significantly outweigh the risks wrt covid-19.

If you look at it from the point of view of "am I going to die from corona virus?" then yes, the panic is overblown (for most people anyway). The real fear is that enough people are going to get sick and have to stay home (to eventually recover) that it will severely disrupt the world, ranging from economic markets to supply of food/drugs at grocery stores. I'm not necessarily saying I buy into that doomsday/prepper hype, but seeing news like Japan recommending school closures definitely makes me worry.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#223

Post by nowaycomputer »

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #211
scarmig wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My reasoning for thinking this is worthy of panic: I recently moved to China. The PRC has good numbers (internally) and knows more about COVID-19's severity and risk profile than anyone else. And, on the ground, the PRC is putting the entire country on what amounts to wartime footing (in a way that's unimaginable to most HN readers), to the point that it's willing to sacrifice a quarter or more worth of economic prod…

EDIT: --- As the replies to my comment indicate I have totally misunderstood the paper. And there IS in fact evidence that the temperature changes the transmission. Sorry my bad. leaving the rest as is --- > I'm hoping Spring ends up curtailing the pandemic; letting warmer temperatures do their work requires slowing down the virus' spread as much as possible, and that requires significant disruptions to people's ever…

Note that the quote above is the background of the paper, not the conclusion, which states:

"The study found that, to certain extent, temperature could significant change COVID-19 transmission, and there might be a best temperature for the viral transmission, which may partly explain why it first broke out in Wuhan. It is suggested that countries and regions with a lower temperature in the world adopt the strictest control measures to prevent future reversal"

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#224

Post by pjc50 »

mns wrote: post #141
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

There does seem to be a section of punditry and commentators, internet and traditional media, who are absolutely salivating for a big dramatic disaster. A lot of people seem to enjoy the thought of doom. It's as if everyone's joined a doomsday cult, like the Millenium.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#225

Post by nik_s »

billfruit wrote: post #202
nik_s wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If my original post gave off the impression of being conspiracy-theory-driven, I want to apologize, because that wasn't the intent. My original post aimed at clarifying that death rates in exponentially spreading diseases that have a lag between infection and possible recovery and death is a tricky topic, and that the numbers generally reported seem to not take this nuance into account. I think collecting accurate da…

Yet your post seemed to hint at willful manipulation of data, which isn't something for which there is reliable concrete evidence for, and which in my view is adding to the paranoia. The line of thinking for eg:, Chinese numbers are untrustworthy, WHO numbers are untrustworthy etc, is very frequently echoed by the western press, and even here in HN.

I think you're referring specifically to the "political and cultural pressure in China" part of my original post. I was basing this on reporting from the New York Times [1] of the original outbreak. It very well might be that the reporting has improved since then, but I do think that there is evidence to say that there was manipulation of data, or at least a very strong incentive to under-report cases initially.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/30/podcasts/the-daily/corona...

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#226

Post by DyslexicAtheist »

scarmig wrote: post #215
DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EDIT: --- As the replies to my comment indicate I have totally misunderstood the paper. And there IS in fact evidence that the temperature changes the transmission. Sorry my bad. leaving the rest as is --- > I'm hoping Spring ends up curtailing the pandemic; letting warmer temperatures do their work requires slowing down the virus' spread as much as possible, and that requires significant disruptions to people's ever…

To be clear, the "There is no evidence supporting that temperature changes COVID-19 transmission" is part of the background statement of the paper. The paper establishes evidence that temperatures do significantly effect transmission rates.

correct, I have messed up here. edited the orig. post to make it clear. thanks for pointing it out everyone.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#227

Post by pjc50 »

jmiskovic wrote: post #176
zerkten wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both. They could easily have had an undiagnosed underlying condition that made them more susceptible to complications. This is to be expected in places like Iran with severe limitations in their healthcare system. I…

Is it just me or is your comment really insensitive? I would think that about half of world has no better healthcare system than Iran.

Iran's healthcare is a lot worse than would be expected for a country of its wealth and development level because of the US embargo.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#228

Post by LarryDarrell »

Loughla wrote: post #183
ableal wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few days ago I looked up the numbers for the 1918 flu - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu - world population: 1800 million - infected: 500 million - dead: 50 million I did not know it had been that bad.

There's this weird social media thirst for this to become the next spanish flu. My family (midwest conservatives) fall into one of two camps: 1. This was sent by Jesus and is a prelude to the rapture, literally. 2. The spanish flu happened 100 years ago, and 100 is a big round number, so this is going to do the same things. It's very strange and surreal around the home town right now. Many elderly are openly embracin…

My own personal opinion is that the Great Recession and it's repercussions (inequality, deaths of despair, the hallowing out of middle American economies, the opioid crises, Flint water crises, etc) over last 10+ years have really ramped up a zeitgeist of inevitable doom. I don't really blame anyone in the Midwest for being full of doom and gloom, because for the most part that's all they have known for the last decade.

My other opinion is that more so than racism and actually believing Trump would make America great again, that most of the support that pushed Trump over the edge came from wanting to burn the whole thing down.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#229

Post by zamalek »

mns wrote: post #141
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

COVID-19 is uniquely terrifying because it is so hard to quarantine. The fatality rate also doesn't factor in the debilitation rate: survivors aren't walking away from this thing unscathed - you have to worry for yourself also. A reasonable amount of panic is healthy, panic is an emotion that we experience for very good evolutionary reasons. Fight or flight often overidentifies threats, but it can underidentify them (e.g. America's official response).

Conspiracy theories aside.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#230

Post by learc83 »

scarmig wrote: post #142
Tenoke wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/infected) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. On the other hand, there are also a lot of infected who only have a mild version and are never checked and recorded, which swings it in the other direction. Edit: Seems like the parent post later edited their post to mention the above.

In the case of the Diamond Princess, all infections, mild to severe, have been identified. Out of ~800 infected, 4 have died, which suggests that with the best case scenario the mortality rate is 0.5%. This also should be read with the context that cruise ship passengers tend to be older. Also, that number will climb a bit. The biggest risk isn't the bare mortality rate when properly treated, but the actual mortality…

As you said cruise ships skew much older than the general population, so this tells us very little about the actual mortality rate. All 4 people who died were in their 80s.
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