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Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

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Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#181

Post by nik_s »

mns wrote: post #141
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

If my original post gave off the impression of being conspiracy-theory-driven, I want to apologize, because that wasn't the intent.

My original post aimed at clarifying that death rates in exponentially spreading diseases that have a lag between infection and possible recovery and death is a tricky topic, and that the numbers generally reported seem to not take this nuance into account.

I think collecting accurate data in the middle of a crisis is incredibly difficult for a host of reasons, none of which need to originate from ill intent. Test kits may be missing, data may be collected differently, methodologies for evaluating "who is infected" and "who has recovered" may differ between countries, patients' records might just not be a top priority for hospital staff, ...

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#182

Post by duxup »

mns wrote: post #141
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

I think being skeptical of numbers from China is reasonable.

Historically speaking even inside China it is a pretty well known quantity (even openly spoken of in China) that local governments are hesitant to give bad news to the central government until it is too late and so on. The result usually is the central government is behind the ball dealing in broad (sometimes less than useful) strokes until things are resolved.

As far as any conclusions you can draw such as "well it must be much worse". I think that is pure speculation.

Specific speculation that isn't founded in much and IMO not helpful. The scale and wonkyness of China's efforts could be because this is a very dangerous / misunderstood disease ... or the massive efforts simply a byproduct if poor internal information / a product of the political nature of China.. panic by their leadership (historically they're very wary of any unrest of their own population), or both.

Skepticism of some information from countries with proven track records of not being forthcoming / have had issues with accurate information is reasonable. Conclusions based in nothing, not so much.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#183

Post by Loughla »

ableal wrote: post #125
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

A few days ago I looked up the numbers for the 1918 flu - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu - world population: 1800 million - infected: 500 million - dead: 50 million I did not know it had been that bad.

There's this weird social media thirst for this to become the next spanish flu. My family (midwest conservatives) fall into one of two camps:

1. This was sent by Jesus and is a prelude to the rapture, literally.

2. The spanish flu happened 100 years ago, and 100 is a big round number, so this is going to do the same things.

It's very strange and surreal around the home town right now. Many elderly are openly embracing what they see as their future deaths because it's God's will.

I'm very, very confused by all of this.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#184

Post by [deleted] »

mns wrote: post #141
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

[deleted]

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#185

Post by hutzlibu »

rootusrootus wrote: post #102
hutzlibu wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But please inform yourself before. In my area in germany for example, the flu is already peaking, so it would be actually harmful to get the vaccine now, as the protection time is around 2 weeks later(I think) and the vaccine temporarily lowers your immune system. Which means, getting the vaccine now means actually a higher risk of getting the real flu (or something else). Vaccines should be taken ahead of the season…

> the vaccine temporarily lowers your immune system Medical science seems to disagree with you. Edit: And HN disagrees with me. Have we become Reddit? On second thought, don't answer that. Bro science has a long tradition on HN just like anywhere else.

Hm. And where?

Because the known side effects can be: dizziness, fever, headache, fainting. I associate those with general low energy, meaning lower immune system. Now the last conclusion might be incorrect, true, I don't know if I drew this conclusion by myself or have this from a medical person. In either case, medical doctors here definitely advised against taking the vaccine now.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#186

Post by n0rbwah »

drclau wrote: post #90
sciinfo wrote: post #52

There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both. The first hypothesis is likely based on the number of infections found in international travellers who went to Iran. We still cannot rule out the second hypothesis though. A 23-year-old woman soccer player: http…

There’s something off about Iran. According to Wikipedia [0], Spanish Flu killed a much higher percentage in Iran too, in comparison with the rest of the world: “The World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio). [...] In Iran, the mortality was very high: according to an estimate, between 902,400 and 2,431,000, or 8% to 22% of the total population died.” — source…

The Spanish Flu was a hundred years ago, I highly doubt that what happened then in Iran has much relations to what's happening now.

What's happening now has more to do with their theocratic regime that didn't take the threat seriously and doesn't care much about their people.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#187

Post by Retric »

wcoenen wrote: post #148
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

> a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)) This formula is still fundamentally wrong because it assumes that the time between infection and death is the same as the time between infection and recovery. I don't see why that would be true.

The argument is it’s a closer approximation. Abstractly if the average death took place X days after infection and recovery took more than 2X days after infection then deaths:infection is a better metric. On the other hand if the average recovery takes less than 2X then deaths:recoveries is a better metric. And if it’s close to 2X then averaging them is a better idea.

Of course detection also lags infection so that’s another consideration. I suspect that’s the real difference as outside of China a lot of cases where discovered before symptoms developed due to blood tests.

PS: South Korea has 1,766 confirmed cases, 13 dead, and 26 recovered. Iran has 245 confirmed cases, 26 dead, and 21 recovered. Those numbers are far enough apart to suggest underlying differences in reporting, which is I a larger issue. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#188

Post by 99052882514569 »

ableal wrote: post #125
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

A few days ago I looked up the numbers for the 1918 flu - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu - world population: 1800 million - infected: 500 million - dead: 50 million I did not know it had been that bad.

These numbers have been revised substantially upwards in the last few decades. I think the estimates were closer to 10-15 million in early 2000s.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#189

Post by phonypc »

tarkin2 wrote: post #4

It's symptoms are pneumonia-like and it mainly kills the elderly. Is this is a new strain of pneumonia? If so, this seems like an overreaction? Edit: Not sure what the downvotes are about. I asked a question. So you can't fight it with drugs, it's highly contagious, hard to initially detect, its long-term effects are unknown, most have recovered and it's largely fatal to the elderly or those with existing conditions.

Pneumonia isn't a disease in the same sense as any specific virus or bacteria. It's a condition brought forth by various things. Covid-19 sometimes causes pneumonia.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#190

Post by thaumasiotes »

zebrafish wrote: post #78

i know it's passe to rail on the media, but i think the hyperconnectedness of everyone is causing the amount of panic i'm sensing out there to significantly outweigh the risks wrt covid-19.

I agree. The Chinese went hysterical when the outbreak was first noticed, and I heard a lot about it spontaneously when wishing people happy new year. Hysteria continued right up to the point where... everyone went back to work.

I think the government got unlucky that the outbreak coincided with a major holiday. And while shutting things down was a good idea in many ways, it also meant that people were stuck at home with nothing to do but freak out. So that's what everybody did.

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