131–140 of 438 posts
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Actually, multiple orders of magnitude...The Flu has a mortality rate of 2 per 100k [1]. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/flu.htm [edited - reformatted numbers to avoid localization issues]
Commas and decimals are not interchangeable
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There’s something off about Iran. According to Wikipedia [0], Spanish Flu killed a much higher percentage in Iran too, in comparison with the rest of the world: “The World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio). [...] In Iran, the mortality was very high: according to an estimate, between 902,400 and 2,431,000, or 8% to 22% of the total population died.” — source…
It's hard to find up to date records filtered by country, but they might have higher count of the ACE2 enzyme which is thought to be an entry point for coronaviruses. Asian populations have much higher count than other populations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_...
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Compared to many other countries, the United States has unpredictably overpriced medical costs that specifically burden the patient. my concern is that it's trained many people (especial those living paycheck to paycheck) to simply not seek medical services unless their condition demands the emergency room. I feel this economic reality will create conditions advantagous to the spread of Covid 19 in the United States.
I think you're pretty far off the mark here. >90% of people have healthcare coverage in the U.S.[1]. Those that don't are likely illegal or homeless or in some way don't qualify for medical coverage (I also don't know how prisoners are counted in the data). Many people I know visit the doctor way more often than they need to or should (I know those who receive it free to purchase it to use employer insurance - like m…
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Doctors and nurses are exposed to a much higher viral load than most people. In Wuhan, they may also overwork and have insufficient sleep.
> higher viral load What is "higher viral load"? Isn't it binary - you are either infected or not?
Viral load is literally a numerical expression of the quantity of virus in a given volume. It is often expressed as viral particles, or infectious particles per mL depending on the type of assay. And a higher viral load often correlates with the severity of an active viral infection.
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A 1% death rate in people without known complications (even 0.2% which seems pervasive in every age group) is orders of magnitude higher than for instance flu. And it spreads easily and is contagious before symptoms. Sounds like something you should be aware of.
Actually, multiple orders of magnitude...The Flu has a mortality rate of 2 per 100k [1]. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/flu.htm [edited - reformatted numbers to avoid localization issues]
The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…
For a proper estimate we should look at cases where the infection is known to have begun e.g. a month ago. Then the mortality rate should be somewhere between dead/infected and dead/(dead + recovered).
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A 1% death rate in people without known complications (even 0.2% which seems pervasive in every age group) is orders of magnitude higher than for instance flu. And it spreads easily and is contagious before symptoms. Sounds like something you should be aware of.
Actually, multiple orders of magnitude...The Flu has a mortality rate of 2 per 100k [1]. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/flu.htm [edited - reformatted numbers to avoid localization issues]
[1] https://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_flu-p...
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The mortality rate may seem very low, but the symptoms are far more severe. When you get the flu it's rare you get pneumonia, not so much with this virus. The biggest problem is that it spreads without symptoms. That is, you can be infected & contagious for days (some Dr's suspect up to 3 weeks) and not have a clue because you seem perfectly healthy. So this has the potential to spread like wild fire. Further, 2 days…
> Further, 2 days ago some numbers out of China stated that up to 14% of previously infected became infected again. The numbers weren't that 14% became infected again. They were that 14% were found to still have the virus after being declared recovered. Many are speculating this doesn't mean reinfection, but could be an indicator that the tests have a higher false-negative rate than previously believed, or that peopl…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-japan/japane...
This is the email I sent my team last night. We should consider working from home. You may all have seen the news by now. A patient was just diagnosed with COVID-19 at UC Davis after having no known contact with anyone travelling. Importantly, they were diagnosed after being intubated already for 7 days. It is suspected that this is the first known case of public transmission of the virus in the US. From what we know…
Seems like a pretty strong overreaction. The flu leads to about half a million hospitalizations in the US each year, while COVID-19 has lead to dozens. So your team is thousands of times more likely to transmit the flu then COVID-19 - even if COVID-19 is 50x more dangerous, it is far more likely that your team will cause hospitalizations due to the flu. I don't see why anyone should be taking precautions for COVID-19…