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Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

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Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#41
This seems like it's missing the forrest for the trees. COVID19 is a strain of flu and like all flus, it affects the respiratory system. For this reason, COVID19's mortality rate is 2.8% among men in China, compared to 1.9% among women, which can at least partially be attributed to men smoking at a rate of >50% whereas women smoke at a rate of 2% in China. [1] I think that the thread's focus on the interplay between the healthcare system and the spread of COVID19, which imho is going to be lessened because of fears of the virus making people more likely to go to the hospital. On the other hand, The US overall has fewer smokers[2], which makes the effects of COVID19 less likely to be severe on those who do get it. Most cases are mild[3], so its more important to see where the severe cases will be, rather than cases overall

[1]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/20/health/coronavirus-men-wo...

[2]http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/smoking-rates-by-...

[3]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/world/asia/coronavirus-tr...

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#42

I did not know about the screening for coronavirus being ineffective. A 35 y/o guy at work died from the flu a little over a week ago (Denver). If it was coronavirus, they'd know, wouldn't they?

No, unfortunately, although most likely wasn’t coronavirus. Countries without (known) outbreaks generally aren’t testing all flu patients.

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#43

Who is this person? As far as I can tell it’s just some random person speculating. Is there a reason we should be taking them seriously? Because a lot of this seems like fear mongering.

Maybe it is fear mongering, but the points raised are valid issues mainly caused by the American health care system. In Japan where I live, drugs that Americans are used to getting over the counter like Tylenol are prescription and no one thinks twice about going to the doctor for the most minor ailment. Obviously the US is the complete opposite of this. The American health care system does have systemic issues that MAY make the coronovirus worse there. I don't think the author is doing anyone a disservice by pointing that out.

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#44

Who is this person? As far as I can tell it’s just some random person speculating. Is there a reason we should be taking them seriously? Because a lot of this seems like fear mongering.

Which points do you have issues with? I think they all seemed on 'on-base'.

Public Health is an actual line of business based on science.

Access to health care is a factor in that unhealthy populations are more at risk of complications. The thing that makes covid scary is how it spreads, and the focus of the health authorities is intervening to slow that down.

I am not an expert in the field, but I consulted for a few of them in the past. Ignore twitter bullshit with political overtones and seek out what is being said by CDC, state health departments and related researchers.

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#45
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://www.brynntannehill.com/about/ I fail to see any health background.

Yeah, but she does have operations research experience with the air force and campaign analysis experience with the navy, and she's not making any biology claims that aren't reasonably supported by the literature, she's drawing conclusions about secondary effects which seems more in her wheel house. Also, she has a BS in computer science, which often seems to qualify anybody in the HN comment sections to be an author…

I love the web era where everything is about asserting expertise

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#46

Who is this person? As far as I can tell it’s just some random person speculating. Is there a reason we should be taking them seriously? Because a lot of this seems like fear mongering.

Epidemiologists would point out things differently, but the bottom line is that US is not prepared.

Eric Feigl-Ding, Epidemiologist at Harvard pointed out:

- US has no free testing or treatment for population.

- US government does not cover any preventive measures for healthcare workers like China does.

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#47

Who is this person? As far as I can tell it’s just some random person speculating. Is there a reason we should be taking them seriously? Because a lot of this seems like fear mongering.

Which points do you have issues with? I think they all seemed on 'on-base'.

Well just about none of them are substantiated with any data. You can say things like “people in the US will avoid going to the hospital because of the bill” and it sounds right because of our perception of the US health system, but is it really? Do we have actual numbers showing this is actually the case, and if so, how extensive it will be? And do we have reason to believe those numbers will hold in this exceptional circumstance? Yes, when people believe they might have the flu, they could potentially try and wait out going to the doctor. But do we believe that in an environment where we have people so acutely aware of the coronavirus outbreak that they are buying out supplies of masks, posting long twitter screeds on potential doomsday scenarios, and side-eyeing every Asian-American with a cough, that when they start to show symptoms they still are going to get hung up on the cost of a clinic visit?

The same goes for many of the other assertions, such as parents forcing their children to go school sick. Or the extremely thin premise of elderly people dying because of a huge number of parents sticking them with their sick children while they work. In fact, what data we do have seems to suggest that children barely get sick from this thing at all, or their sickness is so mild it doesn’t get diagnosed. A recent paper in JAMA found that of the first 44,672 cases confirmed in China, only 416 were in children younger than 10. In fact, only 10% were in people younger than 30.[0] It seems ridiculous to entertain scenarios where elderly people all die off because overworked parents foist their parental duties onto them.

It’s also worth stating that a lot of these concerns are not unique to the US. Many of them also apply to other countries like China and Japan, which are already in the midst of their outbreak. Yes, author is only comparing the US and Europe, but that seems like a useless comparison given that the number of infections in both regions is so small and contained right now.

And finally, the author fails to account for reasons why the US might be better off than Europe. As is often pointed out on this site, usually in a negative context, the US is far less dense than Europe. Fewer people are living in tightly packed urban communities, and more live in suburban and rural areas. Far fewer rely on public transportation. That means far fewer opportunities to come across someone contagious. And the US has some measure of protection in its borders. Except for Canada and Mexico, we can only be accessed via plane or boat. Most of the EU has open borders, meaning that it will only be that much more difficult to coordinate quarantines and control measures.

[0] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?gu...

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#48
post #36
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like the US government isn't structured to deploy such resources so quickly (e.g., FEMA's responses to Katrina, Sandy, etc.) and regulation would seem to kill private efforts. Maybe a state or local government could pull it off with accommodation from federal regulators.

In the US, private industry is broadly empowered to say "No" or "I'll see you in court" to government demands, to a larger degree than many other countries. The side effect of empowering private industry is that organizations like FEMA and the CDC can't force much, and typically advise or request. Which doesn't get things done nearly as efficiently when it's a situation where proposed actions are detrimental to one c…

What do you think the US government would have to demand from private industry to do build in the time frame that Thunder God Mountain was built?

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#49

Who is this person? As far as I can tell it’s just some random person speculating. Is there a reason we should be taking them seriously? Because a lot of this seems like fear mongering.

Facebook gets the extra evil points because they make money, but Twitter is much more effective in getting bullshit propagated to the world.

Twitter is basically like a digital swewer outlet right into your computer and phone, getting that raw digital sewage from the source. Brilliant invention.

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#50
post #46

Who is this person? As far as I can tell it’s just some random person speculating. Is there a reason we should be taking them seriously? Because a lot of this seems like fear mongering.

Epidemiologists would point out things differently, but the bottom line is that US is not prepared. Eric Feigl-Ding, Epidemiologist at Harvard pointed out: - US has no free testing or treatment for population. - US government does not cover any preventive measures for healthcare workers like China does.

Feigl-Ding has been fearmongering since the virus hit the mainstream, including tweeting out non peer reviewed preprinted papers claiming the R0 of the disease was far higher than it is, with commentary that was sensational (“HOLY MOTHER OF GOD”) and simply wrong (claiming the R0 was 8x higher than SARS, when current estimates are that it’s similar). He’s had to walk back lots of claims and has been so irresponsible that he has been called out by fellow epidemiologists and has had an entire article written about him as an example of how misinformation spreads[0]. Take anything coming from his mouth with a huge grain of salt, even with the “Harvard” label trailing his name.

[0] https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china...

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