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Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

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Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#21

Post by piker »

ailideex wrote: post #11
piker wrote: post #2

It will be interesting to see how elastic the supply of healthcare services is in the US versus the social systems if a pandemic does break out. History has shown that when mobilized for a common cause, the US is a force even when compared to socialist and authoritarian states. Thunder God Mountain may not have been possible in the US, but in the worst case scenario, it will interesting to see what is possible in the…

> Thunder God Mountain may not have been possible in the US What would you say would be the biggest impediment here? I would think actually that just government regulation in and of itself would prevent any private company from achieving this feat. And even Federal and State governments are similarly encumbered by regulation.

It seems like the US government isn't structured to deploy such resources so quickly (e.g., FEMA's responses to Katrina, Sandy, etc.) and regulation would seem to kill private efforts. Maybe a state or local government could pull it off with accommodation from federal regulators.

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#22

Post by claudeganon »

AzzieElbab wrote: post #20

What about spare capacity that US medical system possess as opposed to say neighboring Canada? Otherwise, all points are valid.

They're actually worse off (ranked 36th vs. US' 32nd)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hosp...

Here are the full stats:

https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=30183

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#23

Post by wil421 »

bart_spoon wrote: post #9

Who is this person? As far as I can tell it’s just some random person speculating. Is there a reason we should be taking them seriously? Because a lot of this seems like fear mongering.

It sounds more like someone took the typical America sucks topics from a weeks worth of front page submissions from Reddit. Complete with a jab at the current administration.

They could’ve added some stats at the end to convince people to go to the doc but instead it just ends.

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#24

Post by simonh »

sgt101 wrote: post #5

Horrible thought - given the nature of this disease (kills aged 50+, very infectious) and the demographic of US leadership on all sides... what impact might this have on the dynamics of US politics? (edited to clarify)

It kills about 2% of those infected, and about 30% of the population are over 50 so it might kill very roughly 6% of those over 50. Most of those will be the quite elderly and infirm though, most people active in their 50s and 60s should be ok although of course lightning can strike where it will. I'm in the UK but the demographics are pretty similar.

I'm not too worried for myself in my mid 50s, but have real concerns for my wife's parents and my mother.

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#26

Post by simonh »

ericlewis wrote: post #8
sgt101 wrote: post #5

Horrible thought - given the nature of this disease (kills aged 50+, very infectious) and the demographic of US leadership on all sides... what impact might this have on the dynamics of US politics? (edited to clarify)

The powers that be have access to healthcare the masses could only see in a glint of their eye.

There are no magic wands against this thing, at any price. It's too new.

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#27

Post by mlthoughts2018 »

bart_spoon wrote: post #9

Who is this person? As far as I can tell it’s just some random person speculating. Is there a reason we should be taking them seriously? Because a lot of this seems like fear mongering.

Literally no part seems like fear mongering. It even goes out of its way to say this is a risk assessment and the author is not asserting these things _will_ happen.

Seems like perfectly fair lay person analysis to me. It would be somewhat of an argument from authority fallacy to dismiss based only on no health background.

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#28

Post by lvh »

1121redblackgo wrote: post #14
bart_spoon wrote: post #9

Who is this person? As far as I can tell it’s just some random person speculating. Is there a reason we should be taking them seriously? Because a lot of this seems like fear mongering.

Which points do you have issues with? I think they all seemed on 'on-base'.

By their own admission, they fail to quantify their findings. So, my issue is that they’re sound bites that a lot of people were predisposed to agree with (eg “American healthcare is bad and expensive”) and therefore unlikely to evaluate critically.

People have also argued the opposite: the US is special because we have large natural borders (mostly). Or maybe the US is special because the US has a large Chinese-American population, many of whom travel regularly.

Epidemiology is a science. Why listen to Twitter randos when you have specialists?

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#29

Post by OJFord »

claudeganon wrote: post #22
AzzieElbab wrote: post #20

What about spare capacity that US medical system possess as opposed to say neighboring Canada? Otherwise, all points are valid.

They're actually worse off (ranked 36th vs. US' 32nd) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hosp... Here are the full stats: https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=30183

I think you're agreeing with GP? Who's saying that the US has more spare capacity than Canada.

But also, #beds per capita isn't the same as spare capacity.

Re: Some unique aspects in US which make risks of COVID19 higher than Europe

#30

Post by wolfram74 »

oefrha wrote: post #16
bart_spoon wrote: post #9

Who is this person? As far as I can tell it’s just some random person speculating. Is there a reason we should be taking them seriously? Because a lot of this seems like fear mongering.

http://www.brynntannehill.com/about/ I fail to see any health background.

Yeah, but she does have operations research experience with the air force and campaign analysis experience with the navy, and she's not making any biology claims that aren't reasonably supported by the literature, she's drawing conclusions about secondary effects which seems more in her wheel house.

Also, she has a BS in computer science, which often seems to qualify anybody in the HN comment sections to be an authority on anything.

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