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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#771

One thing that's not being noted is that the disease has almost 1 in 500 mortality rate for under 40.

The problem is if hospitals are overrun, the death rate becomes much higher. I think there is a 10 to 15 percent hospitalization rate. We don't have enough beds if enough get infected at once.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#772
post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We were able to essentially starve SARS out of new people to infect. It had a 2-7 day incubation period, was not contagious before symptomatic, and spread by bodily fluid (coughing up water droplets, spread by touch to another). COVID-19 has a 21+ day incubation period, is contagious before you're symptomatic, and is possibly airborne (I haven't heard strong confirmation of that yet, but it's definitely more virulent…

> COVID-19 has a 21+ day incubation period [citation needed]

Study suggests a median incubation period of 3 days, with a range of 0-24 days: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v...

Example of a 27-day incubation: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-incubation/i...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#773

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People don't really have their own opinions we are just collections of ideas picked up and regurgitated

Yes but someone out there is generating these original opinions that then get picked up by others.

It's turtles all the way down bro

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#774
post #687

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I'd prefer such comments not to be made in a euphemistic way and just speak plainly. If you have concerns (valid or not) with immigrants not following the native culture and social norms then say that.

I could totally write the main races involved here (and I do when speaking in public) but no only this would triggers too much people, it’s also wrong to generalize a situation in two words, especially in an international place were readers don’t have the background about the situation nor the linguistics abilitiy to acquire it. Moreover, plenty of non-White French are integrated in the national community because the…

>integrated in the national community because they speak French, they eat our foods, think mostly like us, and follow our laws and traditions

Jesus. Moving to a country isn't joining a cult. You shouldn't expect people to 'think like us' - I mean, what kind of fascist ant colony are you going for here? People's thoughts are their own. That's the the 'liberty' in the liberty-equality-fraternity thing, and you're kind of spitting on it with your small-minded chauvanism.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#775

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have research links? Or this is just internet enecdata? I have been contemplating calling in my Truvada script early and mailing a 30-60 pills to my parents but from my googling seems pointless. that Emtricitabine / Tenofovir most certainly wouldn't help? but I couldn't find much and have no idea

The drug being tested is remdesivir, not tenofovir. https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/24/investing/gilead-sciences-cor... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/health/coronavirus-treatm... https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

thanks!!!

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#776

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could totally write the main races involved here (and I do when speaking in public) but no only this would triggers too much people, it’s also wrong to generalize a situation in two words, especially in an international place were readers don’t have the background about the situation nor the linguistics abilitiy to acquire it. Moreover, plenty of non-White French are integrated in the national community because the…

>integrated in the national community because they speak French, they eat our foods, think mostly like us, and follow our laws and traditions Jesus. Moving to a country isn't joining a cult. You shouldn't expect people to 'think like us' - I mean, what kind of fascist ant colony are you going for here? People's thoughts are their own. That's the the 'liberty' in the liberty-equality-fraternity thing, and you're kind…

The way people in a society think influences the character of that society, obviously. Do you disagree with that?

If people in some society like the way their society is, more or less, why should they want to import a whole bunch of people that think very differently from them, who will make their society very different in a way that they are not interested in it becoming? How would that benefit them?

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#777

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my mind at least, all of these numbers are applesauce. Our ability to trust these numbers hinges on our ability to trust information reported by China's government and other authoritarian regimes (eg Iran and North Korea).

Numbers are suspect from everywhere. Most jurisdictions are only just beginning to test symptomatic patients who don't have a direct link to the initial outbreak locale. One of the difficulties of a disease with symptoms almost identical to the seasonal influenza. But having some numbers to compare is better than having none (or trusting gut instinct).

For me, it's a question of false confidence.

When you have no numbers, you have high confidence that you have low information.

When you have some numbers that are reported as though they are very granular and accurate, you have extreme confidence that you have high information.

The latter, in my view, is a more precarious position from which to make decisions.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#778
post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just FYI, this evening NHK news announced that most museums, theaters, and art galleries are being asked to close. Most events such as Sumo wrestling tournament are also considering closure. PM has asked all large events to be cancelled. In my city, not on your itinerary, all elementary and junior high schools are being requested to close. All community volunteer oriented events and classes are being cancelled for wh…

I don't suppose you have an (English) link to that news story? Im getting concerned about my (tourist) trip next week if stuff I want to visit is closed.

Sorry I don’t have a link. Check /r/japantravel on Reddit. They have a Coronavirus megathread going and lot of other fellow travelers are posting information.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#779
post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe participation in the holy communion by drinking from a cup of wine shared with the entire congregation isn't the best idea right now.

I presume that the alcohol from the wine would not be enough to kill the virus, right?

As a kid in the 90s, my church had a separate line for kids so we could participate too, and we got grape juice.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#780
post #719
post #706

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They won't help you at all. All they do is creating false sense of safety. Viruses are too small and will go through the mask anyway. Also they may protect half of your face against your hands but they won't protect other half, say, against rubbing your eyes. They may help you to minimize the spread if you are already sick, sneezing and coughing. Droplets are big enough to be stopped by mask. This is actually the rea…

Even a regular surgical mask that doesn't have the effectiveness of the N95 can stop water droplets (as you said) and hence, it can stop viruses. The key insight, though, is that water droplets carry viruses; viruses can travel through masks, but they can't travel by themselves without hitching a ride on a water droplet. This is why flu season is during the cold winter, when there isn't enough heat to instantly evapo…

That may be. But wearer of surgical mask creates moisture by breathing and a lot of it. One would suspect that kind of environment works in favor of a virus.
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