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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#21

Post by m0zg »

cycrutchfield wrote: post #13
quelltext wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIRC the SARS outbreak in 2003 was "contained" within that year.

We are orders of magnitudes larger than the SARS outbreak at this point.

It's also 17 years between then and now, and we've made great strides in antiviral drug research. Trials for COVID-19 specific antiviral drug have already started, and there already exists a vaccine for it as well. Let's not do doom&gloom here. The press does it for clicks, but there's no reason for normal, sane people to buy into this clickbait bullshit.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#22

Post by hobofan »

judge2020 wrote: post #3
aaron695 wrote: post #2

> coronavirus not contained by late May ?? It cannot be "contained" any more. Consensus is it's pandemic, it's not hard to see. Do we not understand how this works? What do reporters or the public think can happen? Even if there is a vaccination, which in reality will be years off, we can't even vaccinate measles across the world and certainly not by 'May'. We can't even supply gloves and face masks at the levels we…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker-moderna-delivers-firs...

And with that announcement, their stock price rose almost to their all-time high. Just as the stock price of the in-silico drug discovery platform did that claimed to have a vaccine within a day or so.

I'll believe it when I see it. Until then the estimate of 1-2 years (which is already pretty fast for a vaccine that isn't already on a yearly-cycle like the flu shot), sounds far more likely.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#23

Post by flukus »

I wonder how long until other international events start to be closed? I live almost trackside at a formula 1 event in a few weeks and I'm not exactly enthusiastic about people coming in from all over the world and cramming onto the public transport while they're drunk and sweaty.

It probably can't be contained anyway but large international events could cause some huge spikes in transmission.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#24

Post by AmVess »

flukus wrote: post #23

I wonder how long until other international events start to be closed? I live almost trackside at a formula 1 event in a few weeks and I'm not exactly enthusiastic about people coming in from all over the world and cramming onto the public transport while they're drunk and sweaty. It probably can't be contained anyway but large international events could cause some huge spikes in transmission.

China GP is cancelled, and they are thinking about cancelling the Italian GP.

More will certainly follow.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#25

Post by jamie_ca »

quelltext wrote: post #10
aaron695 wrote: post #2

> coronavirus not contained by late May ?? It cannot be "contained" any more. Consensus is it's pandemic, it's not hard to see. Do we not understand how this works? What do reporters or the public think can happen? Even if there is a vaccination, which in reality will be years off, we can't even vaccinate measles across the world and certainly not by 'May'. We can't even supply gloves and face masks at the levels we…

IIRC the SARS outbreak in 2003 was "contained" within that year.

We were able to essentially starve SARS out of new people to infect. It had a 2-7 day incubation period, was not contagious before symptomatic, and spread by bodily fluid (coughing up water droplets, spread by touch to another).

COVID-19 has a 21+ day incubation period, is contagious before you're symptomatic, and is possibly airborne (I haven't heard strong confirmation of that yet, but it's definitely more virulent).

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#26

Post by m0zg »

quelltext wrote: post #10
aaron695 wrote: post #2

> coronavirus not contained by late May ?? It cannot be "contained" any more. Consensus is it's pandemic, it's not hard to see. Do we not understand how this works? What do reporters or the public think can happen? Even if there is a vaccination, which in reality will be years off, we can't even vaccinate measles across the world and certainly not by 'May'. We can't even supply gloves and face masks at the levels we…

IIRC the SARS outbreak in 2003 was "contained" within that year.

Not just within that year. If you look at the graphs, within less than 6 months. I remember those "we're all gonna die" predictions as well, and then poof, and it was gone by June, and where I live was not affected by it at all.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#27

Post by pengaru »

TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #14
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #8

This may seem silly but this is one of my first confirmations about how serious this is.

Does anyone know if ya can catch this thing twice? Or are we expecting it to mutate similar to cold n flu viruse?

I read in a news article that people were catching it again after recovering, IIRC it was in reference to medical professionals working in China.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#28

Post by SECProto »

cycrutchfield wrote: post #13
quelltext wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIRC the SARS outbreak in 2003 was "contained" within that year.

We are orders of magnitudes larger than the SARS outbreak at this point.

> We are orders of magnitudes larger than the SARS outbreak at this point

an order*

SARS had ~8500 cases, ~800 deaths [1]. COVID-19 is currently ~81000 cases and ~2700 deaths.[2] It will be orders, plural, at some point, but remains to be seen how big (and I won't speculate on that).

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2003_Probable_cases_of_SA...

[2] https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#29

Post by numpad0 »

TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #14
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #8

This may seem silly but this is one of my first confirmations about how serious this is.

Does anyone know if ya can catch this thing twice? Or are we expecting it to mutate similar to cold n flu viruse?

No solid data on that. Everything’s rumor at this point in that front.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#30

Post by thwer234324 »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #8

This may seem silly but this is one of my first confirmations about how serious this is.

Is this a good time to flag HNs self-conceited hive-mind ? Two days ago, HN was full of - 'LOL this is some Alex Jones level conspiracy'. Warnings by Harvard epidemiologists ? No. Virologists ? No. China quarantining half the population ? No.

Only the tech 'wizards' from SV, have a monopoly on truth don't you know. The Orwellian censorship that has been unleashed by these idiots will do the world much more harm in the long run than we're led to believe.

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