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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#11

This may seem silly but this is one of my first confirmations about how serious this is.

It seems like the world is gradually acknowledging its seriousness as it continues to spread. This is certainly the highest-profile event that has considered cancellation.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#13
post #2

> coronavirus not contained by late May ?? It cannot be "contained" any more. Consensus is it's pandemic, it's not hard to see. Do we not understand how this works? What do reporters or the public think can happen? Even if there is a vaccination, which in reality will be years off, we can't even vaccinate measles across the world and certainly not by 'May'. We can't even supply gloves and face masks at the levels we…

IIRC the SARS outbreak in 2003 was "contained" within that year.

We are orders of magnitudes larger than the SARS outbreak at this point.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#14

This may seem silly but this is one of my first confirmations about how serious this is.

Does anyone know if ya can catch this thing twice?

Or are we expecting it to mutate similar to cold n flu viruse?

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#15
post #2

> coronavirus not contained by late May ?? It cannot be "contained" any more. Consensus is it's pandemic, it's not hard to see. Do we not understand how this works? What do reporters or the public think can happen? Even if there is a vaccination, which in reality will be years off, we can't even vaccinate measles across the world and certainly not by 'May'. We can't even supply gloves and face masks at the levels we…

You wouldn't need to vaccinate the world to host an event. Vaccinate the participants and the antendees and the staff.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#17

This may seem silly but this is one of my first confirmations about how serious this is.

Given how Japan handled the Diamond Princess situation, it's a foregone conclusion they are not equipped to handle it, so more than likely the Olympics will be cancelled. They just can't risk it. Athletes/Peoples safety can't be risked, the "Olympic" brand cant be risked.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#18
post #2

> coronavirus not contained by late May ?? It cannot be "contained" any more. Consensus is it's pandemic, it's not hard to see. Do we not understand how this works? What do reporters or the public think can happen? Even if there is a vaccination, which in reality will be years off, we can't even vaccinate measles across the world and certainly not by 'May'. We can't even supply gloves and face masks at the levels we…

IIRC the SARS outbreak in 2003 was "contained" within that year.

We're already at 10x the reported infections of SARS and countries aren't even really testing for the coronavirus. Most countries' policy seems to be asking if you think you're infected and willing to be quarantined for two weeks, and writing it down as a "not infected" if you decline. Or in Japan's case, quarantine people in a mismanaged way to maximize new infections, then let the infected people out to freely mingle with the public.

We're reaching a point where people far from typical travel hubs are showing up infected, but nobody around them is reported as being infected. That means there are silent cases lurking everywhere, undetected. To me that says two things. One is that it's highly under-reported, and two is that it's probably evolved to become something fairly mild and not much worse than a cold in most instances.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#19

This may seem silly but this is one of my first confirmations about how serious this is.

It seems like the world is gradually acknowledging its seriousness as it continues to spread. This is certainly the highest-profile event that has considered cancellation.

Events don't really get bigger than Olympics, do they? The last ones to be cancelled were due to world wars.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#20

Containing it? It's hopeless. Just cancel earlier so the economic loss can be contained.

Containment is still desirable even in a scenario where this has spread to all countries and on-track to become endemic.

Why? Because it buys time. If a vaccine can be developed, which is likely but certain to take some months, then you can inoculate the populace and end up in a situation where it's endemic-but-managed.

If you don't contain, however, then you assuredly burn through whatever portion of your populace will succumb to this thing, all but ensuring your nation's health service becomes overwhelmed, and as a bonus you stoke mutation due to a greater number of hosts.

Fatalism is not useful here and should not be encouraged under any circumstances. Containment efforts are never in vain.

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