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Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

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Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#181

Post by Recursing »

cycrutchfield wrote: post #120
0x1221 wrote: post #99

I guess it's the selective aspect of a question like this but I'm genuinely surprised that so many people in this thread are taking actual measures.

Not too farfetched if you read a lot of news and see what is going on in other countries that are affected.

Meh, I'm in Italy and there's not much going on: some small panic in some parts of the population, school closed and stuff. Nothing worth preparing for. All the deaths were very sick people

Edit: apparently OP by "other countries that are affected" meant "the most badly hit places in Wuhan" and thinks it's going to happen everywhere in the world. I repeat that in Italy there's no apocalyptic scenario going on

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#182

Post by noname120 »

SuddsMcDuff wrote: post #145
lurquer wrote: post #48

Wouldn't it be prudent to try and get the virus as soon as possible? Apparently, it's not that dangerous of a disease assuming you have medical care available. So, now is the time to get it... when you have the entire intensive care unit st your disposal. If you hide out in your bunker, wear your mask, and follow the CDC's advice, you'll probably not get it for a few months. But when you do, instead of having a nice…

On the other hand, if you delay contracting the virus for as long as possible, you leave more time for more effective treatments to be made available.

You also leave more time for ICUs to be overrun and not being able to take you.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#183

Post by tomatocracy »

bluGill wrote: post #35
Spellman wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering the amount of time to develop and produce a vaccine for widespread distribution, I don't expect anything in place until next flu season if not the year after.

If there is an effective vaccine I'm expecting a lot of people to be drafted to create facilities to make it in quantity. (Assuming it can't be made in the same process that the current flu shot is made). If society puts its mind to it building this infrastructure can be done very fast - it won't be the most cost effective build in ordinary times, but it will get the job done.

Vaccines are biological in nature. It's very possible that time will be a much more meaningful factor than people or equipment in producing enough of a vaccine to cover sufficiently many people so "massively parallelizing" the process may not help with the lead time to vaccine availability, only with quantity when it does become available (assuming an effective vaccine is found).

Having said that, I would expect that in most Western countries, sufficient quantities to cover the most vulnerable people (older people and those with existing heart or respiratory conditions - ie largely the same people selected for annual flu vaccines in many places) will be available by next (Northern hemisphere) winter.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#184

Post by Recursing »

paulgb wrote: post #133
rimliu wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of that's going is overreacting people hoarding supplies.

Ironically, when I considered the likely outcomes, the one that convinced me to stock up on food was not actual supply chain distruptions (which I see as possible but fairly unlikely), but that mass hording will lead to shortages (which I see as very likely).

Shortages of what? Supermarkets in northern Italy have been restocking without problems, there is a shortage of N95 face masks on amazon, but they're not even proved to be useful for healthy people

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#185

Post by theduder99 »

RJIb8RBYxzAMX9u wrote: post #77
jakkals wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is also transmission (actually the first one mentioned) "Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)"--this does not mention liquid droplets at all, which is why I figured it to be airborne.

That's because many people are disgusting and don't give a fuck about proper hygiene. Just among my acquaintances I need both hands an a foot to count the number that don't even vaguely cover their mouth / nose -- let alone _properly_ cover -- while coughing or sneezing. No amount of gentle reminder -> passive aggressive suggestion -> explicit suggestion had lasting effects on their behavior. All I could do is be vig…

Yep, most middle east and eastern cultures have very low hygiene standards.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#186

Post by theduder99 »

0x1221 wrote: post #99

I guess it's the selective aspect of a question like this but I'm genuinely surprised that so many people in this thread are taking actual measures.

You can't believe any numbers coming out of china. They are having to build new hospitals. Watch what they do not what they say.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#187

Post by spanxx »

jackjeff wrote: post #160
ttcbj wrote: post #114

Over the last few weeks, we have acquired enough food/supplies to stay isolated at our house for about 2 months (a combination of bulk rice/beans/grains, and pre-purchasing anything we use regularly which has a long expiration date). We also have medicines/toiletries/etc to last that long. Maybe 10-12 years ago I read the book 'The Great Influenza'[1], and there are enough similarities between that outbreak and this…

I was under the impression that the Spanish flu was very different from the regular flu and COVID-19, because it was the young/old people that survived it and the healthy 20-50 year old that died the most. Most people died of the Spanish Flu because of their immune response. It looks like COVID-19 is really mild* for lots of people in that age group. Am I missing something? Did the Spanish flu start like COVID-19 and…

I wish people stop calling that Spanish Flu where it's totally unrelated to Spain...

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#188

Post by 8iterations »

nyolfen wrote: post #157
8iterations wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was wrong about the season flu being less deadly. However if we look past lay press like CNBC or The Atlantic because this is cutting edge/developing research, and into the academic press, we see that the mortality rate is significantly lower than other outbreaks like SARS & MERS (9%,35%) https://academic.oup.com/view-large/figure/199362642/dyaa033... https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaa033 So it seems prudent to reite…

significantly less deadly than sars but also significantly more contagious. sars was only contagious once you showed symptoms, which does not appear to be the case here. for covid, los alamos suggests a pre-intervention r0 of 4-6: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v... the fatality rate increases with age, up to ~15% for >80. i don't know about you but i have older people in my family that i'…

Yes I agree with you, I am concerned with the elderly & infants. As these are the demographics which usually have higher fatal outcome both in diseases, and even adverse effects from drugs/surgery.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#189

Post by agumonkey »

RegnisGnaw wrote: post #43

Refill your medication(s), that's the biggest one. India produces a lot of drugs and if they get infected, we will see shortage. China also produces a lot of the base chemicals used in medication, so this is worry some. If you have chronic conditions, you really don't want to be without. Soap and sanitizer. Mostly soap. Soap is equally effective as sanitizer in washing hands, etc. Soap is also much cheaper and more a…

Actually last year a few pharmacies in France told us they were short of some pills. Then we learned that only a few brands were manufacturing them .. so almost a single point of failure.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#190

Post by senordevnyc »

Arbalest wrote: post #179

I'm making preparations, but I think I'm going to have to make even more. Having one child under two, and another just about to be born, I really can't afford their exposure, when they'll still be in a developmental phase that leaves them especially prone to permanent damage.

I think you should take whatever reasonable precautions help you feel better, but just to put your mind at ease a little: one of the few bright spots with this virus is that it doesn’t seem especially dangerous to kids. To my knowledge there have been zero deaths of any kids under the age of 10. I have a 4 year old and I’m much more concerned about her parents and grandparents than her.
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