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Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

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Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#151

This is very likely to overwhelm not just medical infrastructure, but shut down supply chains for basic necessities for months. If the pandemic hits, most businesses will shutter, just like in China. It is prudent to stock up now for 1-2 months of cheap, non- perishable foods like rice and beans (complete protein together) at a minimum. There's just no excuse not to now if you make a tech salary - a couple hundred do…

> It is prudent to stock up now for 1-2 months of cheap, non- perishable foods like rice and beans (complete protein together) at a minimum.

Despite the rest of your post being overly alarmist this is a good recommendation. You should have extra staple food at all times. The cost is minimal, you can keep extra of foods you'd eat anyway, and the benefit in an unlikely supply chain disruption could be significant.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#152
I have a couple weeks of food and water, which I bought slowly one day at a time so the store had plenty of time to restock, and they did.

I have a few N95 masks. These I got late at a painting supply place. I have a great deal of surgical masks and disposable gloves, which I bought years ago.

On order is a UV disinfecting chamber to enable mask reuse.

I'm not getting full body suits or protecting against long term electricity loss as that's certainly possible but if it comes to that might as well just die really.

I have a lot of guns and ammo to protect against supply attacks, but didn't have to buy more of that, that is something I already had anyway.

I completely cashed out of the stock market last week. Will result in a very large tax bill for the non-401k part. Was hoping to cash that stuff in during retirement instead.

I've stopped eating in restaurants and only go to the store during hours when few people are there.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#153
post #48

Wouldn't it be prudent to try and get the virus as soon as possible? Apparently, it's not that dangerous of a disease assuming you have medical care available. So, now is the time to get it... when you have the entire intensive care unit st your disposal. If you hide out in your bunker, wear your mask, and follow the CDC's advice, you'll probably not get it for a few months. But when you do, instead of having a nice…

Who knows. Viruses that become widespread tend to mutate. Most often they mutate to become less deadly - a virus that doesn't kill the host has a better chance of spreading. However the 1918 Spanish flu that was so deadly mutated from a less deadly version in spring to the more deadly version in fall so nothing is guaranteed. Make your bets... If you think this will get worse get it now and live with lifelong heart p…

>If you think this will get worse get it now and live with lifelong heart problems.

Do you have any proof that coronavirus causes lifelong heart problems? TMK this has not been established.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#154
By listening to "It's The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)" by R.E.M.

Seriously, stressing out about this is going to create more problems than the virus itself. Humans love starting panic parades anytime something scary happens. Best thing to do is not worry about it.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#155
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm fasting regularly, which will realistically extend my food supply. Isn't fasting the opposite of storing food for an emergency? Surely storing food on your body as fat is one of the safest and easiest ways to store it.

Yes, you're technically burning through your body's food supply when you fast. While that has survival implications, that's not really the point. The average American overeats like crazy and is addicted to junk food. Fasting helps to break that addiction so that you're more likely to use your crisis food wisely and not feel hunger pangs. When I tell people that I comfortably fast for 4 or more days, they think it's c…

What fasting method do you practice? It sounds interesting!

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#156
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not too farfetched if you read a lot of news and see what is going on in other countries that are affected.

Most of that's going is overreacting people hoarding supplies.

Not overreacting: This is not the flu, current estimates are ~20% of cases require hospitalization. Where it has hit with full force, hospitals fill up and people drop dead in the streets. China has shut down big parts of their economy and put major cities into quarantine.

Not hoarding: Empty shelves are how capitalism sends signals to producers that they need to increase production, much like how packet loss tells TCP to cut back on its rate of sending. My local Lowe's has been out of N95 masks for a month.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/gu...

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is only a ~2% mortality rate from COVID-19 Correct. > less than the usual flu I'm pretty sure that's wrong. From a quick Google the best I could find was an Atlantic article saying the rate is typically around 0.1%. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vac...

I was wrong about the season flu being less deadly. However if we look past lay press like CNBC or The Atlantic because this is cutting edge/developing research, and into the academic press, we see that the mortality rate is significantly lower than other outbreaks like SARS & MERS (9%,35%) https://academic.oup.com/view-large/figure/199362642/dyaa033... https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaa033 So it seems prudent to reite…

significantly less deadly than sars but also significantly more contagious. sars was only contagious once you showed symptoms, which does not appear to be the case here. for covid, los alamos suggests a pre-intervention r0 of 4-6: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v...

the fatality rate increases with age, up to ~15% for >80. i don't know about you but i have older people in my family that i'm very concerned about.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#158
Some things to consider (we're doing most of these):

1. Find out what is going on, the Interwebs are your friends. The press and politicians aren't much use. The bureaucracy (China, Japan, Iran for example) are not much use and may make things worse.

2. Carry around some sanitising, no water, hand cleaner.

3. Get a few decent masks and read up how long to use them.

4. Find out what Fomites are and think about what that means.

5. Read up on hand cleaning. What you do now, CDC style, WHO style, operating theatre style and decide what to do. Start now.

6. Practice coughing and sneezing in a safe way, even if you're not naturally doing that now.

7. Study up on the Bayesian priors of the different ways the disease may hit you, 80% pretty mild. Check incubation times, up to 24 days, so who knows why they're still using 14. Asymptomatic people can spread for all, or most, of those incubation days. Get your mind into thinking about those and all the mechanics. If you're really determined solve some of the ODE's, for SIR, SEIR etc. program that and run your own epidemic progression models.

8. Prepare for a siege if it comes to that. Maybe write out operating procedures and lay in some supplies. For example if people have to deliver food etc. and leave it on the doorstep or whatever, work out the details.

9. Go visit people you care about who are frail or have compromised immune systems BEFORE anything breaks.

10. With Epidemics the populace is generally slow to realise it has started and also slow to realise it has finished. Think about that, prepare yourself. Don't be one of the fools.

11. If you don't already work from home, or have an understanding about that, get it fixed right away.

12. All the above also for your nearest and dearest too.

ENUF.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#159

By listening to "It's The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)" by R.E.M. Seriously, stressing out about this is going to create more problems than the virus itself. Humans love starting panic parades anytime something scary happens. Best thing to do is not worry about it.

> Seriously, stressing out about this is going to create more problems than the virus itself. Humans love starting panic parades anytime something scary happens. Best thing to do is not worry about it.

This is absolutely, uncategorically, false.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#160
post #114

Over the last few weeks, we have acquired enough food/supplies to stay isolated at our house for about 2 months (a combination of bulk rice/beans/grains, and pre-purchasing anything we use regularly which has a long expiration date). We also have medicines/toiletries/etc to last that long. Maybe 10-12 years ago I read the book 'The Great Influenza'[1], and there are enough similarities between that outbreak and this…

I was under the impression that the Spanish flu was very different from the regular flu and COVID-19, because it was the young/old people that survived it and the healthy 20-50 year old that died the most. Most people died of the Spanish Flu because of their immune response. It looks like COVID-19 is really mild* for lots of people in that age group.

Am I missing something? Did the Spanish flu start like COVID-19 and evolved later?

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