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Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

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Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#91

Post by wenc »

rwmj wrote: post #26

My wife cancelled a holiday in the Far East. The airline seemed to be overwhelmed by people doing the same thing, so probably the time to short airline stocks.

There is a place for shorts i.e. as price discovery mechanism, and in many cases, as a price correction mechanism to reveal fundamental weaknesses in a company with overpriced stock.

Shorting stocks to take advantage of a disaster strikes me as one of the most unethical, immoral things one can do. People still do it, but it doesn't make it right.

(apologies for the moralizing -- my sentiments are not directed at OP who was merely musing and shooting the breeze -- but at amoral Wall Street types).

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#92

Post by ravenstine »

beachy wrote: post #81
ravenstine wrote: post #63

I've already been preparing as a hobby for the last 3 years, not specifically for coronavirus, but here's how I'm prepared for it: - I work remotely, so I can hunker down at home and have my income totally unaffected. - I've close to 6 months worth of food, and I've been buying more in the last month as the news continues. I can give some tips on what I think is good inexpensive food to get in case anyone is interest…

> I'm fasting regularly, which will realistically extend my food supply. Isn't fasting the opposite of storing food for an emergency? Surely storing food on your body as fat is one of the safest and easiest ways to store it.

Yes, you're technically burning through your body's food supply when you fast. While that has survival implications, that's not really the point. The average American overeats like crazy and is addicted to junk food. Fasting helps to break that addiction so that you're more likely to use your crisis food wisely and not feel hunger pangs. When I tell people that I comfortably fast for 4 or more days, they think it's crazy and they can't imagine it, but it's really not that hard. That tells me that people are liable to digging into their food too early on in a survival situation.

The truth is that while I am gradually burning body fat intentionally, I've still got weeks worth of fat on my and probably will when I decide to reduce my fasting back to eating one meal a day. I'd rather burn that fat and eat minimally for the first week or two of a crisis before digging into my reserves. Let's say I learn that the supply chain will be broken for longer than expected; I want to have food around so I can calmly address the issue without having to panic about where I'm going to get my next meal.

To put it simply, I don't think most people have the discipline to not pig out on their earthquake kit or their pantry if they're stuck at home during a pandemic. There's a bit of a caloric tradeoff in gaining that discipline, but I think it's worth it.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#93

Post by 8iterations »

MaxBarraclough wrote: post #78
8iterations wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is only a ~2% mortality rate from COVID-19, less than the usual flu. If one is prepping to survive from this, it is much more likely you have deeper emotional & psychological issues that prevent you from holding long lasting intimate relationships. And are at a higher risk of death from depression, anxiety, loneliness,and general social isolation. Thank you for listening. P.S. I work in this field and attached…

> There is only a ~2% mortality rate from COVID-19 Correct. > less than the usual flu I'm pretty sure that's wrong. From a quick Google the best I could find was an Atlantic article saying the rate is typically around 0.1%. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vac...

I was wrong about the season flu being less deadly. However if we look past lay press like CNBC or The Atlantic because this is cutting edge/developing research, and into the academic press, we see that the mortality rate is significantly lower than other outbreaks like SARS & MERS (9%,35%) https://academic.oup.com/view-large/figure/199362642/dyaa033... https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaa033

So it seems prudent to reiterate that the only causes for social disruption & need to prep would be to have unjustified panic and run at stores like the behavior seen in Italy.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#94

Post by yuy910616 »

fctorial wrote: post #60
yuy910616 wrote: post #47

I joke with coworkers that I want to get it on my own terms. Since the death rate is relatively low, I'd rather get it first when the medical infrastructure is not overwhelmed and that I'm 100% healthy. I can even scheduled ahead and finish some projects to work around the virus.

Would you do it though?

No

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#95

Post by someguydave »

cbHXBY1D wrote: post #89
Buttons840 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do not overstock on masks or other supplies. Masks especially should be available to the sick. It's ironic that (I'm sure) someone out there will stock up on 10,000 masks and it will cause them to be in even greater danger because the sick people around them will have fewer masks. The CDC recommends that sick people wear masks to keep droplets in, and that people who directly interact with sick people wear masks whil…

2-3 weeks ago people on here were advocating stocking up on masks and selling at a high profit.

what is profitable for the individual may not be profitable for the group.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#96

Post by mtmalla »

idiocratic wrote: post #64

Not at all. I think the media is overestimating the effects of this virus. The world will realise that soon and everyone will calm down. I can see this effect right now in Italy. I in one of the affected regions and while a few people have been queueing to empty shelves at the supermarket, I'll go tomorrow for a normal weekly grocery shopping. Supermarkets are fully stocked again and everyone is doing well. The main…

Famous last words.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#97

Post by dfsegoat »

allovernow wrote: post #18

This is very likely to overwhelm not just medical infrastructure, but shut down supply chains for basic necessities for months. If the pandemic hits, most businesses will shutter, just like in China. It is prudent to stock up now for 1-2 months of cheap, non- perishable foods like rice and beans (complete protein together) at a minimum. There's just no excuse not to now if you make a tech salary - a couple hundred do…

I find this to be pretty alarmist.

"If the pandemic hits" ... the virus has already hit.

The WHO itself has backed off the Pandemic classification [1].

The virus has an overall 98% survival rate, and most diagnosed cases in the US, are not actually showing any symptoms (which itself is a cause for concern re: spread).

The annual Flu, MERS and SARS were far far worse. The flu kills between 26,000 and 52,000 annually in the US [2], and as much as I love prepping, this just does not fit the bill for the amount of FUD it has generated.

edit: comments are making me re-think my position. COVID is far worse mortality rate wise in 65+ patients vs flu.

1 - https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/who-tries-to-calm-ta...

2 - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#98

Post by pkaye »

Since I'm on home dialysis, I'll be pretty screwed if this goes on too long. I usually get medical supplies once a month and have probably an extra 2 weeks of backup supplies. Medications I can usually get 3 months at a time so I have plenty.

In terms of food and home essentials, we tend to shop in bulk normally so just need to make sure we are stocked up.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#100

Post by specialp »

dangom wrote: post #41
cronix wrote: post #31

I haven't done too much, but that's because I'm generally prepared with 2 months food/water supply for general purpose emergencies. Living in the Pacific Northwest, we're expecting a pretty large earthquake as we're statistically overdue. Once panic has set in, it's too late to prepare for much of anything. Preparing is taking action beforehand, not after. I mean, if we even get news of 100 degree weather in this par…

Definitely good to be prepared, but AFAIK there is no such thing as being "statistically overdue" for an earthquake.

Yeah there is. It is not like saying that if black hit on roulette 10x in a row that one would be statistically overdue for red. Because those are completely independent events with equal probability on each trial.

With earthquakes if statically speaking a massive earthquake hits on a roughly 1 in 500 year interval, the stresses at the plate boundary are much more likely to be greater at year 600 than at year 1 after a massive earthquake.

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/events/1906calif/18a...

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