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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#721

Post by yyhhsj0521 »

starfallg wrote: post #471
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

>I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. I don't buy this argument at all. After vario…

If they shouldn't stay at home, then where?

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#722

Post by perseusprime11 »

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #359
_nkl1 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. It may well seem that way in retrospect. Whe…

> those same authoritarian governments are the ones who played down the threat, lied, covered up to save face, imprisoned whistle-blowers, and refused to let international experts in. I'm scared that it will become a lot worse than that. The pandemic gives them a real-life stress test and lessons to harden the surveillance state and further improve technical controls and tweak the technology to become more effective.…

You have a good reason for your paranoia. Even today, we have flights from Italy, South Korea, and Japan coming into U.S and nobody is bothering to contain this situation seriously. Unsure how Insurance is going to treat a spread in U.S. We are not set up for success.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#723

Post by yyhhsj0521 »

csomar wrote: post #422
distantaidenn wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Living in Tokyo and just returned from Seoul yesterday. It's striking how differently the countries are handling this issue. Korea is pretty much on lockdown -- the government and the population are being quite proactive. Masks everywhere, thermal guns at junctions with high human traffic. Water fountains shut down, etc. Even the airport staff at the eateries were undergoing temperature checks before interacting with…

That's an interesting observation since when I were in Tokyo at peace time, many people did wear masks. It's also important to remember that basic sanitary and hygiene are also important which I'd like to believe that the Japanese are better than probably the rest of the world. The difference is that maybe South Korea is in "panic mode" and Japan is yet to get there. They are less than half of Japan population and ha…

They also tested a lot more.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#724

Post by yifanl »

Waterluvian wrote: post #474

Cancelled or postponed? By now they must have already spent a huge amount of infrastructure. And why outright cancel? _why_ can't you "just do it in October"?

Asking athletes to perform in dramatically different conditions than they train for (which will be the case for at least for outdoor events) is practically asking them to drop out.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#725

Post by [deleted] »

irq11 wrote: post #606
senordevnyc wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see you’re still hard at work spreading the falsehood that “it’s just like the flu, unless you’re old or sick”. 1. I find the lack of concern about dramatically higher mortality rates for the old and the sick to be reprehensible. They’re people, even if they’re older or sicker than you. 2. It doesn’t make the slightest bit of sense for China to shut down the economy over something so minor. 3. The hospitalization r…

The virus is like the flu unless you’re old or sick. These are facts and you are still wrong. More specifically: 0) In the case of the parent, I was saying that the virus spreads and infects people in the same manner as other upper respiratory viruses . It does, this is a fact, and fatality rates are not relevant. 1) I’ve never said that I have no concern about old or sick people. I said that young healthy people sho…

[deleted]

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#726

Post by irq11 »

senordevnyc wrote: post #437
irq11 wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

”COVID-19 is unlike anything before” It’s almost exactly like every other respiratory virus, except that the case fatality estimates for old and sick people are higher. There’s nothing mechanistically new about the infections we’re seeing. It’s a pretty bog-standard respiratory virus, in terms of its transmission and overall virulence. ”But if COVID-19 spreads to their country, people's daily lives will be significan…

I see you’re still hard at work spreading the falsehood that “it’s just like the flu, unless you’re old or sick”. 1. I find the lack of concern about dramatically higher mortality rates for the old and the sick to be reprehensible. They’re people, even if they’re older or sicker than you. 2. It doesn’t make the slightest bit of sense for China to shut down the economy over something so minor. 3. The hospitalization r…

(Re-posting this to bypass the censor-downvoting that is going on. Factual information needs to be emphasized, and the same few accounts are downvoting everything that doesn’t promote panic.)

The virus is like the flu unless you’re old or sick.

More specifically:

0) In the case of the parent, I was saying that the virus spreads and infects people in the same manner as other upper respiratory viruses. It does, this is a fact, and fatality rates are not relevant.

1) I’ve never said that I have no concern about old or sick people. I said that young healthy people should not panic.

2) It would indeed be concerning if hospitals are overwhelmed. Currently, they are not (anywhere) and therefore, again, people should not panic.

3) Comparing tiny ratios with large error bars and freaking out over a “20x” difference in relative risk is pointless; the risk is still quite low. It also overlooks the far more relevant fact that you’re thousands of times more likely to get the flu than covid-19. At this point, you should not panic.

Get the idea? The relative risk to most people is lower than...well, most things in life. That’s why my argument is, and continues to be, that most people, in most places, should not panic.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#727

Post by senordevnyc »

nabla9 wrote: post #591
senordevnyc wrote: post #559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re projecting a lot more certainty than the experts have about that: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happ... Additionally, even if there is seasonality, it may be that this has already spread too far to die out completely and cases will rise again in the northern hemisphere toward the end of 2020.

I'm projecting the same level of likelihood (not certainty) as one of the experts in coronaviruses (not just general expert in epidemiology) Third of third of common colds are caused by coronaviruses and they they show clear seasonal pattern (SARS don't because it's mostly human-animal transmitted). You can't say for certain that it's the case for this virus but it's very likely.

Not only can I not find a source corroborating your statement by John Nicholls beyond this forwarded email of a transcript of a call that allegedly happened weeks ago, but what you stated ("This virus will burn itself out in May when temperatures rise.") is not even an alleged quote from him. It's a summary by the person who typed this up. The closest thing Nicholls (allegedly) said is this:

In regards to temperature, the virus can remain intact at 4 degrees or 10 degrees for a longer period of time. But at 30 degrees then you get inactivation. And High humidity the virus doesn’t like it either. That’s why I think Sars stopped around May and June in 2003 – that’s when there’s more sunlight and more humidity. The environment is a crucial factor. The environment will be unfavourable for growth around May. The evidence is to look at the common cold – it’s always during winter. So the natural environment will not be favourable in Asia in about May.

Totally different from "it will burn itself out by May", which multiple experts across multiple fields increasingly consider uncertain at best.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#728

Post by littlestymaar »

FriendlyNormie wrote: post #660
istjohn wrote: post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"real French" "the kind [of] people that loot trains" As littlestymaar points out, this sounds an awful lot like dog-whistling.

Quoted post unavailable.

“There are hundreds of millions of people who agree with him. Get over it.”

Somebody talking about Germany in 1932

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#729

Post by andreilys »

artsyca wrote: post #462
jfkebwjsbx wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not your humble opinion. Sports are just entertainment nowadays. Lowest priority.

People don't really have their own opinions we are just collections of ideas picked up and regurgitated

Yes but someone out there is generating these original opinions that then get picked up by others.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#730

Post by senordevnyc »

irq11 wrote: post #726
senordevnyc wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see you’re still hard at work spreading the falsehood that “it’s just like the flu, unless you’re old or sick”. 1. I find the lack of concern about dramatically higher mortality rates for the old and the sick to be reprehensible. They’re people, even if they’re older or sicker than you. 2. It doesn’t make the slightest bit of sense for China to shut down the economy over something so minor. 3. The hospitalization r…

(Re-posting this to bypass the censor-downvoting that is going on. Factual information needs to be emphasized, and the same few accounts are downvoting everything that doesn’t promote panic.) The virus is like the flu unless you’re old or sick. More specifically: 0) In the case of the parent, I was saying that the virus spreads and infects people in the same manner as other upper respiratory viruses. It does, this is…

Please don't pollute HN by just reposting your comments because you don't like that people are downvoting you. Make a better argument.
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