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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#511

Post by [deleted] »

didericis wrote: post #196
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. China's authoritarian government is largely responsible for the severity of the initial outbreak. Their e…

[deleted]

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#512

Post by bluGill »

simonh wrote: post #443
Cookingboy wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well from what we've seen in Japan and South Korea, that seems to be far from guaranteed. Those countries had all the warnings they needed, and knew much more about the virus than the earlier days, yet they still failed to contain the initially small outbreaks.

When you have an initial outbreak, you have a single original source of the incident and no possibility of people outside the area bringing in additional sources of the virus, because the virus hasn't spread outside the area yet. If you contain it locally, you have contained it completely, full stop. The situation for other countries is completely different. Someone could fly into Japan right now from anywhere in the…

No you don't, there is 27 days incubation factor which means 27 days before the initial outbreak for things to spread and no possible way to do anything about that. Then you have whatever time for doctors to identify that this is something new and a big deal, again time that things can spread without your ability to control it.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#513

Post by virgilp »

hurrdurr2 wrote: post #111
xbmcuser wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think many people here on hackernews are being stupid that they are healthy adults so they don't need to worry. Even if you don't die you will be out of the work force for 2-3 weeks either because you are sick or quarantined. You could pass the infection to your children, parents Grand parents who might not be able to fight off the infection and die. Many people get flu vaccines or over the years have built up some…

Not to mention the virus is mutating and is now killing healthy people in their twenties in Hubei (if not at least serious disease requiring mechanical ventilation and supplemental oxygen). Also there is evidence the HIV drugs are no longer working due to the virus developing resistance. Those of you thinking "oh I'm a healthy young person I'm just gonna carry on doing what I'm doing" is gonna be in for a rude awaken…

My understanding was that this virus has a molecular proofreading system that reduces its mutation rate, and makes it unlikely to develop a more deadly strain - was this dispelled in any way?

Can't find exactly where I read it but it's e.g. mentioned here: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-cor...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#514

Post by Retric »

iCarrot wrote: post #305
yibg wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China can be held responsible for the slow early response and attempt to cover things up as well as being praised for the decisive efforts at containment later on. I don’t want to let them off the hook for down playing this thing early on but I’m not sure how much more effective containment would’ve been if this happened in another dense country. Say Japan, India or somewhere in Europe.

Or say the US. In 2009 pandemic, the influenza A H1N1 pdm-09 originated from Mexico, spread to the US, and then to the world.

By comparison pdm-09 would have killed somewhere between 8 and 60 people with ~78,064 infections not 2,715 and counting. Thus reasonably getting a vastly lower response.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#515

Post by scient »

netheril96 wrote: post #167
nostromo wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth reflecting on how many novel pandemics a 40 year old person has experienced in their lifetime. HIV, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika, COVID-19... For some reason it feels like a "only in the history books" event -- and yet it's actually quite common. The average-aged American (38) has lived through multiple epidemics -- including one that has killed 30 million people (HIV) -- and yet we barely talk about it.

COVID-19 is unlike anything before (in modern times). Especially HIV. You don't catch HIV by boarding the subway, eating in a restaurant, or running a marathon. For most people, avoiding unsafe sex is enough to avoid HIV. But if COVID-19 spreads to their country, people's daily lives will be significantly disrupted. SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika are a little more like COVID-19, except they never propagate that far.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but its also nowhere as mortal or serious as these others you are listing.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#516

Post by kaffeemitsahne »

gioele wrote: post #367
bitreality wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's the thing with Italy. They're the first Western country to get a major outbreak. They're being told to do things and assuming that it will stop the virus. But the truth is, containment does not actually stop the virus. It simply slows it. When or if this hits the US or elsewhere in Europe, and it becomes obvious that despite the quarantine in Italy, the virus still continued to spread, they will question the m…

> Here's the thing with Italy. They're the first Western country to get a major outbreak. Here is the other thing with Italy: differently from other neighbor countries, they have been testing people without symptoms. Numbers: until February the 24th, Italy performed ~8500 tests (mostly on people without symptoms, but that were in contact with confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infected patients), while UK did ~6500 (focused on peo…

This is amusing to hear in light of all the "saving face" talk about China.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#517

Post by hrktb »

noodlesUK wrote: post #146

As someone tangentially attached to the sports community, the olympics is already a bit screwed up anyway, simply because the sports seasons (and thus the qualification pathway) for many events in the games have been significantly disrupted by the coronavirus. Many athletes who were in touching distance of qualifying will not be able to, and other athletes will be sent in their stead (if it happens at all) Olympic qu…

The dumb part of all of this is how the gov. and the IOC handled the summer olympics up to this point.

For instance there was the discussion around the marathon, where runners would be at serious risk when running outdoors in the middle of the summer in Tokyo. Yet it took months and months of discussions, stupid alternatives (including "let's change Tokyo's time during the Olympics so the marathon starts at the planned time, but it would actually be super early morning when the sun is still low") to finally move it to a place where people won't be dying.

The current administration is well above caring for public safety, but we can hope the international outcry will be huge enough of a threat to force their hand.

[https://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-2020-marathon-id...]

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#518

Post by octodog »

asiachick wrote: post #268
_nkl1 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. It may well seem that way in retrospect. Whe…

Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things. Basically I don't expect the west to be able to react to this any better if it gets big. Their populations are uncontrollable (for mostly good reason) but in this par…

I'm guessing most countries have laws allowing the authorities to forcibly quarantine people if they feel they are at risk of spreading disease, and similar laws for limiting public activity. Certainly they do for shutting schools and other public buildings.

Institutions in developed countries are far better equipped to deal with this level of crisis than China has been. Australia, where I'm from, has had infections since mid Jan but has been able to effectively quarantine people and prevent community transmission thus far.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#519

Post by infinity0 »

_nkl1 wrote: post #156
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. It may well seem that way in retrospect. Whe…

The recent explosion in cases in South Korea, Italy and Iran would seem to suggest that in fact perhaps the officials in Wuhan did not fuck up handling the early part of the epidemic, at least much more so that the officials in these other countries.

There are some indications of officials playing down the threat and lying, but this was also reversed quickly by higher levels of the same authoritarian government. Did this lying have a significant impact, more so than presumably-less lying in South Korea and Italy, that resulted in the same order-of-magnitude in explosion of cases, even though the world media was already on high alert?

Don't be so overconfident at fitting world events and a few selected media stories into your prejudicial ideological convictions.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#520

Post by vbezhenar »

baq wrote: post #366
bitreality wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's the thing with Italy. They're the first Western country to get a major outbreak. They're being told to do things and assuming that it will stop the virus. But the truth is, containment does not actually stop the virus. It simply slows it. When or if this hits the US or elsewhere in Europe, and it becomes obvious that despite the quarantine in Italy, the virus still continued to spread, they will question the m…

slowing down the virus is required while hospital capacity is being scaled up.

Is it scaling up now? I live in Kazakhstan, we have huge border with China and a lot of people going through Kazakhstan transiting to other countries. I don't really see any scaling. I don't even see proper reporting, apparently we have no ill people. It sounds stupid and unrealistic, so nobody believe that, but officials say so. I'm prepared to get this virus soon enough, it seems inevitable. I'm young, so probably I'll survive, but I can't say the same about my parents. It's a stupid situation, really.
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