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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#481

Post by pbhjpbhj »

numpad0 wrote: post #427
jonplackett wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a thoughtful comment. Don’t see why it’s getting downvoted.

“in Japan if you test positive the hospital gets quarantined losing tons of money” is at least inaccurate, Japan has national healthcare that short-term “sales”/cash strapping don’t matter for hospitals. Economy wise there’s nothing for their corporate to lose OR gain.

In the UK hospitals still have individual budgets, is that not how it works in Japan.

Yes, I'd expect them to be overridden in times of emergency, but nonetheless - do Japanese hospitals really have scope to spend at will without constraints?

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#482

Post by baxtr »

mft_ wrote: post #417
shadowprofile77 wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Completely speculating here but this specific case sounds like a bad luck situation in which the family in question had an extreme genetic susceptibility to suffering the virus at its worst. As other comments have pointed out (and the data so far seems to back) the vast majority 81%+ of cases are fairly mild or even asymptomatic and the elderly are those who suffer the higher 2%+ mortality rates (based on what I've r…

Except, of course, in the example given, the two parents won't share any genetic material (coming from different families originally) and neither will the son and his wife.

Of course, only if the two parents really are coming from different families originally...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#483

Post by GhostVII »

01100011 wrote: post #42

I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel about working from home for a while. There is nearly zero reason for me to show up at work. I can do nearly everything from home, often better. At work, I'm in a large, open building surrounded by thousands of people. Am I overreacting? I know there's a good chance we're all going to get COVID-19, but if I can delay it a bit, I lessen the hit…

Probably overreacting. There is a much greater chance of you dying on your commute than catching the virus if you are in the US, so the virus has not significantly increased your chances of death. And if you are worried about being a carrier, it is far more likely for you to get the flu, which can also be deadly, so the virus has not significantly increased your risk to others either.

Maybe if the US had tens of thousands of cases it would make more sense, but right now I don't see why anyone in North America should be changing their habits given how small the risk is relative to the things we are already exposed to.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#484

Post by dpflan »

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

The timeline on the BNO site is useful, but have you seen this site by Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering that is tracking the cases (confirmed, deaths, recovered)?

> https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#485

Post by jacques_chester »

hiram112 wrote: post #469
jmnicolas wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know of 2 European car manufacturers that can't build certain cars because they don't have parts from China (Peugeot 208 and Fiat 500L). This is just a small example, but every industry is hit.

I think this is going to happen to a lot of manufacturers and industries in the West who are going to lose a lot of money in the short to medium term. Looking further out, this and the general push back of the last few years with being so dependent on China, may be what further forces the West to start ensuring supply chains are not so dependent on China and the far East. Companies may start seriously consider the tr…

Viruses don't really pay much attention to economic rivalries and supply chains can be disrupted wherever they exist. As for "helping" the west, you're misunderstanding how gains from trade work.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#486

Post by throw0101a »

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments ...

Except China's system of government got us here in the first place:

> Contrary to common belief, the killer digital app for authoritarianism isn’t listening in on people through increased surveillance, but listening to them as they express their honest opinions, especially complaints. An Orwellian surveillance-based system would be overwhelming and repressive, as it is now in China, but it would also be similar to losing sensation in parts of one’s body due to nerve injuries. Without the pain to warn the brain, the hand stays on the hot stove, unaware of the damage to the flesh until it’s too late.

> During the Ming dynasty, Emperor Zhu Di found out that some petitions to the emperor had not made it to him, because officials were blocking them. He was alarmed and ordered such blocks removed. “Stability depends on superior and inferior communicating; there is none when they do not. From ancient times, many a state has fallen because a ruler did not know the affairs of the people,” he said. Xi would have done well to take note.

* https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coron...

The authoritativeness suppresses the very information flow that is needed to know what's going on. Dr Li Wenliang tried to warn people and the police paid him a visit and told him to stop:

* https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51364382

Edit: see also Iran perhaps.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#487

Post by lmilcin »

_nkl1 wrote: post #156
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. It may well seem that way in retrospect. Whe…

That's exactly my thought. Giving medal for dealing with the problem forgetting who let that problem get large in the first place.

The time when Chinese doctors screamed there is something wrong but instead being helped were downplayed or even threatened would be enough to prevent it from snowballing it to the size we face today.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#488

Post by mrfusion »

pbourke wrote: post #286
bulutsuzku wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can anyone just explain how in hell it takes so long to develop a vaccine? Vaccine creators aren't supposed to have billions of USD to make their job? What's the real problem here?

1. Come up with the vaccine 2. Test vaccine on animals 3. Prove to regulators vaccine is safe enough for limited human trials 4. Conduct limited human trials 5. Research effectiveness of vaccine / absence of side effects 6. Conduct broader human trials 7. Step 5 again 8. Scale up production of vaccine Now, imagine that you can fail at any step and go back to the starting point.

I know most people here like to defend the established ways of doing things. But in an crisis like this we need to go back to first principles and see which steps are really needed and what can be speed up.

Every day we waste people die.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#489

Post by jacques_chester »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #301
allovernow wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That curve is pure bullshit. No real life event fits a polynomial with that much precision when it is sampled so poorly. They're cooked, both intentionally and because of limitations in equipment, personel, and ability.

Do you have examples of other epidemics where it was impossible to fit a quadratic? I've seen this argument a lot, but I've never seen anyone attempt to analyze how hard it actually is. I suspect that any data with positive first and second derivatives is pretty easy to fit closely to a quadratic.

The point that's been made is that the fit is suspiciously perfect, +/- 1 person per day.

Either Wuhan is populated by perfect spheres in a vacuum or the reported numbers were based on a projection, not data.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#490

Post by pbhjpbhj »

grandmczeb wrote: post #307
Johnny555 wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the outbreak started in the USA, would you expect the USA to welcome a team of Chinese Government epidemiologists?

I expect they would be allowed. The US also allows international observers for its elections as well.

The USA is objectively corrupt from the top, have recently removed themselves from non nuclear proliferation and climate treaties .. as a country the message seems clear that USA don't care two shits about the rest of the World.

The idea Trump would open his response to an epidemic up to international inspection is just laughable - and I say his, rather than USA government's because that's how things appear to work there.

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