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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#251

Post by pengaru »

djmips wrote: post #236
pengaru wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or mosquitoes and the malaria they spread... Malaria was responsible 405,000 deaths globally in 2018 according to [0]. [0] https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/world-m...

How many people do you know with malaria? It's a tropical region disease. In a pandemic of Covid-19, it is going to affect people all over the world in every region.

The parent mentioned Zika, any such list including Zika would be incomplete without Malaria as well.

I agree that covid-19 seems to have a larger potential breadth, and didn't intend to downplay its significance.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#252

Post by hoseja »

didericis wrote: post #196
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. China's authoritarian government is largely responsible for the severity of the initial outbreak. Their e…

Thank you, feels like 50-cent army found this thread or something, it's disturbing.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#253

Post by bouncycastle »

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best

Not when they are doing things like manipulating the numbers, as you mentioned at the beginning.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#254

Post by dahdum »

_-___________-_ wrote: post #227
netheril96 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

COVID-19 is unlike anything before (in modern times). Especially HIV. You don't catch HIV by boarding the subway, eating in a restaurant, or running a marathon. For most people, avoiding unsafe sex is enough to avoid HIV. But if COVID-19 spreads to their country, people's daily lives will be significantly disrupted. SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika are a little more like COVID-19, except they never propagate that far.

> boarding the subway, eating in a restaurant, or running a marathon There's no evidence that you are remotely likely to catch COVID-19 by doing any of those things either.

There’s ample evidence “going to church” is one way, and that’s not much different than the others.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#255

Post by baq »

watwut wrote: post #199
lisper wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seasonal flu kills hundreds of thousands of people every year and we barely talk about that.

Mortality of flu is over 0.1%, with coronavirus it is over 2%. And flu has shorter incubation time. That is massive difference.

2% may be still too high, it might even be high sub 1% (e.g. .7%), but the big problem is how many of cases require hospitalization and especially intensive care. if number of ICU patients grows 10x in one month, we're all in trouble and that's seemingly what happened in China.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#256

Post by baq »

pengaru wrote: post #201
lisper wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seasonal flu kills hundreds of thousands of people every year and we barely talk about that.

Or mosquitoes and the malaria they spread... Malaria was responsible 405,000 deaths globally in 2018 according to [0]. [0] https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/world-m...

the best part in this all might be that chloroquine, an anti malaria drug, apparently is effective against covid-19.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#257

Post by knzhou »

_-___________-_ wrote: post #238
jaynetics wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well it has clearly slowed the spread in China. You couldn't cover up an exponentially growing death rate forever. Of course, it might not prevent everyone getting infected in the long run, but there might still be hospital beds available for the worst cases if it is stretched out enough.

Correlation isn't causation. Any number of things can slow the spread, including seasonal variation and importantly human behaviour changes.

Human behavior changes like... staying inside because of a quarantine? I fail to see any behavior change that could be more impactful than that.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#258

Post by oefrha »

baq wrote: post #249
oefrha wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Last time I checked they were still barring members of the CDC from going into China to help asses the situation. I checked and the WHO team led by a Canadian epidemiologist has been working in China for more than two weeks, since Feb 10. I fail to see why they are obligated to allow in a team from a nation that’s been openly hostile for a long time just because they asked and used the word “help”. Sounds like arro…

the WHO has taken some not entirely transparent actions during handling of this epidemic and there are allegations that it's boss has a conflict of interest (his country apparently takes a lot of investments from China) and also that there are some pandemic-related financial instruments from which certain parties stand to benefit June 2020 if pandemic isn't declared. these are all hearsay but would explain trying to…

I would hope that the WHO director’s personal politics doesn’t have a huge sway over WHO’s official stance.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#259

Post by pbourke »

_-___________-_ wrote: post #238
jaynetics wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well it has clearly slowed the spread in China. You couldn't cover up an exponentially growing death rate forever. Of course, it might not prevent everyone getting infected in the long run, but there might still be hospital beds available for the worst cases if it is stretched out enough.

Correlation isn't causation. Any number of things can slow the spread, including seasonal variation and importantly human behaviour changes.

The epidemic curve[1] makes a pretty compelling case that the quarantine was effective.

[1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#260

Post by djmips »

jankotek wrote: post #116
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

Could you tell me in what way authoritatian countries (aka China) handles this situation better? Italy closed 50k people into quarantine, government talks about military and EU was deciding about closing borders. All of this days after confirmed cases. I am sure officials would have no trouble to isolate major city. China has many internal problems, we just do not see them. Government refuses foreign doctors. If cris…

Isn't the story circulating now that Trump eliminated the infrastructure set up to specifically deal with global health emergencies and pandemics?
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