Live data from Hacker News

CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

cnbc.com

91–100 of 186 posts

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#91

Here are some actual documents on preparing for an influenza pandemic that the CDC is repurposing to prepare people for the coronavirus because of the similarity to the spread of the flu. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/pandemic-prepa... States will have their own influenza preparedness plans that they will probably be following for the coronavirus as well. One helpful thing that they advise governors t…

> store up ... enough (but not more than enough) medications

I'm not clear how this would work in practice. In the US, between insurance and the DEA, patients get very little choice about how many meds are dispensed at which intervals. There are all kinds of constraints.

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#92
post #23

So I see this information from the CDC and news outlets, but the head of the World Health Organization seems to be saying something quite different: “For the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus, and we are not witnessing large-scale severe disease or death.” https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/who-tries-to-calm-ta...

I don't see the contradiction. The WHO is talking about the current state. The CDC is talking about preparing for the future state.

The other issue is that the WHO is being very conservative in their reports. They won't claim uncontained global spread until there is hard evidence. Before that point, however, there will be week evidence.

If I recall correctly, several days ago, the WHO excplicitly warned that "the window for containment is closing". Even before then, I never recall them saying that containment was assured. Particuarly if the spread is occuring in areas with week health infastructure, or that are trying to supress the numbers.

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#93
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 2% figure is misleading, mortality is overwhelmingly restricted to the elderly and particularly those with existing health problems: PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE* Cardiovascular disease 10.5% Diabetes 7.3% Chronic respiratory disease 6.3% Hypertension 6.0% Cancer 5.6% no pre-existing conditions 0.9% AGE DEATH RATE* 80+ years old 14.8% 70-79 years old 8.0% 60-69 years old 3.6% 50-59 years old 1.3% 40-49 years…

2% of the US population is 6 million people. That's a lot of people. Edit : and it might climb if people aren't getting proper care because the medical system is overloaded.

The annual death rate in the USA is 2.8m. The virus will spread throughout the biosphere and become a standard part of the human virus paradigm, like the common cold or flu.

The best than can be done is to manage and stage its extent as much as possible, to avoid overwhelming healthcare services all at once. The Japanese seem to have the same idea.

Cases should be triaged and medical resources dedicated to those aged 50 and lower, who are still working and in generally good health.

The US pension system across many states, companies, and the federal Government itself is unsustainable, so this virus may be the key to bring those programs back into proper operation. Cities like Chicago will face a huge relief as Coronavirus spreads and lessens their pension burden.

Additionally, the housing freed up could be used by younger people and families, dramatically improving the quality of life for much of society. Inheritances could be used by younger generations to invest in businesses or upgrade personal living situations.

Lower pension and healthcare expenditure will allow lower taxes, perhaps allowing the elimination of payroll taxes.

The deaths will be tragic but from a purely economic perspective Coronavirus looks like a major opportunity for Western societies to de-age. We are very lucky that unlike other Pandemics, this virus is restricted to the sick and elderly, and barely impacts the young and healthy, unlike say the Spanish Flu.

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The WHO is still using Chinese figures without any sort of disclaimer. The director of the WHO has been accused by the new York times of covering up multiple epidemics in how home country[1]. Hopefully this virus will upend the blind Faith that people recently have come to put into international establishments. 1. https://cloverchronicle.com/2020/01/30/world-health-organiza...

Just checking but what concrete alternatives would you recommend to international organizations, imperfect though they may be?

I would personally prefer to see a NATO based combination of the USA and EU CDC (does something like this exist?). The problem with these global organizations like the WHO and the UN is that they receive large funding from competing ideologies and interests. They end up rewarding beurocracies and politically motivated leaders. The CDC seems to be much less politically influenced and focused on their mission.

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#97

We are witnessing a massive geopolitical event. This could be a chance for the U.S. to reassert it's global hegemony - China has been brought to its knees over this virus, and a critical weakness of globalism has been exposed, the dependence that comes with offshoring too much production. This could drive the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. Rumors abound in China about party members openly criticizing the go…

You should try writing a sci-fi thriller novel.

It's certainly some Crichton-level scientific and political expertise on display.

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#98
post #87
post #77

Basically every household should already have, regardless of the origin of the disaster: 1 month of clean drinking water or reliable (tested) filtration devices and a impure water source (local streams likely to have various bacteria that will make you sick). 1 month of food that requires minimum water and fuel to cook (quick oats > slow cook oats). Enough fuel to cook that food (most of your food should not require…

>I've lived for 30 days in alaska on a glacier > devolved into small groups of people who didn't share food. In what context did this happen? Doesn't sound like a fun camping trip

I was on a course from something like the Wilderness Education Association- basically training to be a "wilderness leader" (but the instructors were pretty clueless). Some things I learned: While in most places if it rains you will dry out after a few days, but it's so humid in alaska the only way to dry clothes is to wear them at night in a wet sleeping bag (it dries by morning). Glacier runoff rivers are no joke, we almost lost an instructor and a student while crossing. If you don't manage your food properly, you will end up subsisting on things like cake mix(!) for the last few days. When supplies get low, people act different (greedy).

There's a saying: "civilization is only three meals away from anarchy", that only made sense to me after day 28.

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the chances that residential electricity, gas or water get shut off as a result of an outbreak in North America? I live in a mid-sized town and we have enough dry beans and cereals to last a few months, but without hot water it would be a week at most.

Can you make them in cold water, just takes longer? Not sure. Or heat them in the sun? Sun tea beans??

No, most beans are toxic if not cooked. Some, such as kidney beans, become more toxic if cooked at low temperatures.

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#100
post #62
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These storage guidelines are incredibly paranoid. Milk does not go bad a week after opening. Eggs don't spoil after two to four weeks in the fridge. A bag of bacon in the freezer isn't going to end you because it sat there for three months. Fruit juice doesn't go bad in 3 days. Butter doesn't go bad after two weeks at room temperate, let alone in a fridge.

Agreed. Eggs can last 3 months outside a fridge, and yes, that includes eggs in the us.

> Eggs can last 3 months outside a fridge, and yes, that includes eggs in the us.

Commercially bought eggs in the US need to be refrigerated because they remove the outer antibiotic coating before sending them to stores.

Post reply on HN