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CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

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Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#81

Post by allovernow »

esoterica wrote: post #73
allovernow wrote: post #63

We are witnessing a massive geopolitical event. This could be a chance for the U.S. to reassert it's global hegemony - China has been brought to its knees over this virus, and a critical weakness of globalism has been exposed, the dependence that comes with offshoring too much production. This could drive the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. Rumors abound in China about party members openly criticizing the go…

What happens if the next viral outbreak occurs in the US? How is putting factories in one arbitrary geographic location any safer than putting them in another arbitrary location? If anything, this isn’t an argument against offshoring, it’s an argument for offshoring your factories across as many different countries as possible so you have less concentrated exposure to a specific country.

Our entire industry is already forecasting shortages because literally every industry depends on raw components from china. The market is down 7 percent in 2 days. Not to mention the other indicators for the long overdue recession that we've been seeing for months now.

> it’s an argument for offshoring your factories across as many different countries as possible so you have less concentrated exposure to a specific country

That isn't entirely incorrect, but it still pays to have reserve domestic capacity, not just for events like this virus but to limit the power that other nations have over the U.S. in any case it's good that we're likely to reduce reliance on China after all of this is over.

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#82

Post by allovernow »

hodgesrm wrote: post #72
allovernow wrote: post #63

We are witnessing a massive geopolitical event. This could be a chance for the U.S. to reassert it's global hegemony - China has been brought to its knees over this virus, and a critical weakness of globalism has been exposed, the dependence that comes with offshoring too much production. This could drive the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. Rumors abound in China about party members openly criticizing the go…

Can you cite evidence of governments that were overthrown or even moderately affected by the Spanish Flu? It was a terrible epidemic but most effects seem to have been at the personal or micro-economic level.

I'm not a historian, but you're missing the big picture. The CCP has been extremely secretive with it's handling of the virus, including employing the usual means of thought control by forcing whistleblowers to deliver public statements of apology and disappearing others.

If the rumors regarding dissent are remotely true, anti government sentiment over how the virus was handled is unprecedented. There are hundreds of leaked videos online of Chinese citizens publicly expressing discontent. In 2020 it isn't just the party members that have internet access now - this virus is likely acting as a trigger for the possible end of the CCP, or at least some sort of reformation.

Further, the world was not nearly as interconnected and interdependent in the 1910s. And urban density was far lower as well. What's happening in China alone is already disrupting global supply chains, and the virus has already spread to other third world manufacturing economies like Vietnam, which shut down all schools. In many ways this is a perfect storm.

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#83

Post by jcranmer »

numakerg wrote: post #56
James_Henry wrote: post #4

Here are some actual documents on preparing for an influenza pandemic that the CDC is repurposing to prepare people for the coronavirus because of the similarity to the spread of the flu. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/pandemic-prepa... States will have their own influenza preparedness plans that they will probably be following for the coronavirus as well. One helpful thing that they advise governors t…

What are the chances that residential electricity, gas or water get shut off as a result of an outbreak in North America? I live in a mid-sized town and we have enough dry beans and cereals to last a few months, but without hot water it would be a week at most.

Not worth considering.

These services generally require someone in the production facility monitoring them 24/7, along with some form of repair crews available 24/7. But, on the other hand, these are services that require 24/7 monitoring, even in the face of blizzards, earthquakes, hurricanes, or other natural disasters that severely impact physical infrastructure, and so they'll have contingency plans for "people can't come into work" scenarios.

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#84

Post by pjlegato »

vkou wrote: post #15
y-c-o-m-b wrote: post #3

I'm lucky enough to work remotely so if schools do close, I can still earn a living while the kids are at home. I can't even imagine what kind of hell it's going to bring parents if schools shut down for any extended period of time. Same thing with small businesses - shutting them down is really going to hurt local economies. In my city, small business are about to shut down because of construction on a main stretch…

> I can't even imagine what kind of hell it's going to bring parents if schools shut down for any extended period of time. It would only be hell because its illegal, not because it's actually a problem. There is no good reason for why you couldn't leave a healthy school-aged child home alone for the duration of a workday. That is, if you've actually raised them well. Billions of people around the world have been rais…

Pushback has begun against legal mandates for helicopter parenting in the US: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free-range_parenting#Legal_sta...

Utah has made it explicitly legal to leave children home alone.

In response to a well publicized case where the police initiated a neglect investigation of parents who allowed their children to walk to a nearby park alone, Maryland issued a policy directive specifying that such investigations cannot be initiated solely because children are seen in public alone, without any indication of specific impending harm[1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meitiv_incidents

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#85

Post by esoterica »

allovernow wrote: post #81
esoterica wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens if the next viral outbreak occurs in the US? How is putting factories in one arbitrary geographic location any safer than putting them in another arbitrary location? If anything, this isn’t an argument against offshoring, it’s an argument for offshoring your factories across as many different countries as possible so you have less concentrated exposure to a specific country.

Our entire industry is already forecasting shortages because literally every industry depends on raw components from china. The market is down 7 percent in 2 days. Not to mention the other indicators for the long overdue recession that we've been seeing for months now. > it’s an argument for offshoring your factories across as many different countries as possible so you have less concentrated exposure to a specific c…

But moving factories to the US just decreases your exposure to China-related epidemics, natural disasters and other crises at the expense of increasing your exposure to US-related epidemics, natural disasters and other crises. You’re just trading one risk factor for another.

Reducing economic relations with another country means you have less power and influence over them, not more. Having hundreds of billions of dollars worth of trade conducted between two countries and having millions of their jobs tied to international trade is a good incentive for them not to antagonize you too much.

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#86

Post by AncientTree »

ianlevesque wrote: post #6
y-c-o-m-b wrote: post #3

I'm lucky enough to work remotely so if schools do close, I can still earn a living while the kids are at home. I can't even imagine what kind of hell it's going to bring parents if schools shut down for any extended period of time. Same thing with small businesses - shutting them down is really going to hurt local economies. In my city, small business are about to shut down because of construction on a main stretch…

Sure, but killing 2% of the world population instead of closing down a couple stores also seems bad.

The 2% figure is misleading, mortality is overwhelmingly restricted to the elderly and particularly those with existing health problems:

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE*

Cardiovascular disease 10.5%

Diabetes 7.3%

Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%

Hypertension 6.0%

Cancer 5.6%

no pre-existing conditions 0.9%

AGE DEATH RATE* 80+ years old 14.8%

70-79 years old 8.0%

60-69 years old 3.6%

50-59 years old 1.3%

40-49 years old 0.4%

30-39 years old 0.2%

20-29 years old 0.2%

10-19 years old 0.2%

0-9 years old no fatalities

Shutting down the economy and quarantining whole areas will do more harm than the virus. Tens of thousands of Americans already die of the flu and Coronavirus us just a very virulent form of that.

I realise that its grim to talk about, but there may actually be economic benefits from the very sickest dying from the virus and thus relieving the burden of large pension and healthcare expenses.

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#87

Post by Havoc »

dekhn wrote: post #77

Basically every household should already have, regardless of the origin of the disaster: 1 month of clean drinking water or reliable (tested) filtration devices and a impure water source (local streams likely to have various bacteria that will make you sick). 1 month of food that requires minimum water and fuel to cook (quick oats > slow cook oats). Enough fuel to cook that food (most of your food should not require…

>I've lived for 30 days in alaska on a glacier

> devolved into small groups of people who didn't share food.

In what context did this happen? Doesn't sound like a fun camping trip

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#89

Post by allovernow »

esoterica wrote: post #85
allovernow wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our entire industry is already forecasting shortages because literally every industry depends on raw components from china. The market is down 7 percent in 2 days. Not to mention the other indicators for the long overdue recession that we've been seeing for months now. > it’s an argument for offshoring your factories across as many different countries as possible so you have less concentrated exposure to a specific c…

But moving factories to the US just decreases your exposure to China-related epidemics, natural disasters and other crises at the expense of increasing your exposure to US-related epidemics, natural disasters and other crises. You’re just trading one risk factor for another. Reducing economic relations with another country means you have less power and influence over them, not more. Having hundreds of billions of dol…

It's not black and white.

Any local outbreak is less likely to disrupt your domestic operations to the same degree that foreign dependence would. Primarily because the U.S. is a first world country where any disaster is more likely to be better dealt with and when the event is local, you have you have more reliable information for handling a disaster when you are communicating with local channels. Particularly when you are in a country with free speech and limited government suppression.

In any case, to ideally minimize risk you want both foreign and domestic production, even if that means some degree of subsidy for local operations. There are other downsides to excessive free trade of labor and goods as well - we need a happy medium.

Re: CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

#90

Post by davidw »

AncientTree wrote: post #86
ianlevesque wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but killing 2% of the world population instead of closing down a couple stores also seems bad.

The 2% figure is misleading, mortality is overwhelmingly restricted to the elderly and particularly those with existing health problems: PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE* Cardiovascular disease 10.5% Diabetes 7.3% Chronic respiratory disease 6.3% Hypertension 6.0% Cancer 5.6% no pre-existing conditions 0.9% AGE DEATH RATE* 80+ years old 14.8% 70-79 years old 8.0% 60-69 years old 3.6% 50-59 years old 1.3% 40-49 years…

2% of the US population is 6 million people.

That's a lot of people.

Edit: and it might climb if people aren't getting proper care because the medical system is overloaded.

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