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AB2712 – California Universal Basic Income

leginfo.legislature.ca.gov

81–90 of 207 posts

Re: AB2712 – California Universal Basic Income

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea with UBI is that it replaces other forms of government assistance. Since this is a test and obviously California doesn't want to end it's unemployment insurance in case the test goes badly, it's exempting those people using the other programs from this one. Basically, no double dipping.

That makes sense. I wonder why they don't migrate at least some of those people to UBI, though. I think that would be what you would want to test.

Ethics. It'd be great to do a side by side but if the UBI test goes poorly you've derailed a lot of lives for your experiment.

Re: AB2712 – California Universal Basic Income

#83
post #55
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>For what? Schools. Roads. Sewers. Water. Clean air. Power. Safety. Just to name a few. Nothing important really.

WA has no income tax and their schools aren’t worse. Oregon has no sales tax and their schools aren’t worse. Are CA public schools by far the best in the nation? ( they are not) Edit: before you jump into the “other means funding” - I lived (and owned house) in WA and CA and the overall tax burden is MUCH higher in CA

This is correct. School funding has little correlation to performance because there is little accountability or performance measurement. Even where you might think higher salaries would result in better teachers, this does not happen in any timely fashion because union rules results in long tenure of incumbent instructors in most places.

Re: AB2712 – California Universal Basic Income

#84
post #50
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boy, I already pay some of the highest taxes in the country and now I get to pay more. For what? They cannot manage anything else properly in this state.

>For what? Schools. Roads. Sewers. Water. Clean air. Power. Safety. Just to name a few. Nothing important really.

You joke surely?

- I live in the Bay Area, we largely have some of the worst schools on average. Yes some areas are perfect but the majority you don't want your kid going to.

- Roads? What roads? The roads that are over-congested? The roads that have potholes that are measured in feet deep?

- Power, water, clean air? Surely some of that is covered in the fees I already pay for? I pay some of the highest water/sewer/electric rates in the country.

- Safety? I have a statistically higher chance of getting mugged in the Bay Area then most other parts of the country. I have lived in Oakland and San Francisco for a decade. I never see police but have seen lots of crime.

Again, I ask, what for? I already pay some of the highest tax rates here. My property tax is expensive, my income tax is high. I get very little back from the state. Why would I trust the state to mishandle even more money?

Re: AB2712 – California Universal Basic Income

#85
post #56

If you pass this without passing radical reform of zoning and building millions more homes, it will be yet another wealth transfer mechanism from poor consumers to wealthy California landholders. Rents will eventually match the increase in income as way too much demand chases an incredible, inhumane, History Will Judge You shortage of supply. Which, amazingly, is one of the reasons this could actually pass. Californi…

You write as if markets are a zero sum game, however they are most certainly not. You say the poor tenant will transfer wealth to the wealthy landlord as if the tenant is losing. However -- they are both gaining. Say the rent is $1000. Obviously, the property usage right is worth to the landlord less than $1000, otherwise he would've just used the property himself. He gains. The property usage right is worth more tha…

The transaction isn’t even close to this.

Imagine the case of a working class family that has lived in CA for generations. The elderly grandmother owns a home because she bought it in the 1950s when things were not so broken. She has two grown children, each with families. One family lives in her house with her, because that’s all they can afford, but that’s okay because they want to stay close to home.

The other family rents a home nearby, because by the time whey were adults, hosing was out of reach.

In California, the only thing stopping rent increase is people’s ability to pay. In San Francisco, a 3bd apartment costs at least $4500/mo, and the median price is more like 8-10k per month.

That is because there are so very few available, and there are enough two income bankers and tech worker households who make enough to justify that rent that the market has no room for anyone else.

We go back to the working class family example, assuming the adults are gainfully employed and each making $60k/year. All they want is to continue living in the town they grew up in, where they have friends and decent jobs and their elderly parent to stay near. They pay $4000/mo, which is near the low end of market rate for a 3bd home for their family of 4, and also about half their after-tax income.

Now this UBI program (or any other change) happens, and a lot more income is suddenly flowing nearby. Anyone who for any reason finds themselves needing a new apartment has a little more money available, and so they can inch up just a bit in the market. But because demand so radically dwarfs supply, this means rents just tick up about 10% in short order.

So back to that family, the landlord notices the market has moved, and he raises the rent 10%. The landlord gains $400/mo. The tenants gain nothing except the “privelege” of non-eviction.

They now have to decide to pay more just to stay in place, or to try and downgrade to a worse apartment to keep costs in check. And if they do downgrade, they’re just displacing someone else who is farther down the economic ladder.

You described a free market scenario, which works on a whiteboard.

In the real world, California property owners have a monopoly on a fixed supply of housing, and nobody gets to participate in the California economy without a place to sleep at night. Thus any increase in productivity locally just goes to the property owners in short order, as they are enabled by the policies they’ve long fought for to extract their rental tax up to the ability of each person to pay. They use this unilateral power to extract all the gains.

Re: AB2712 – California Universal Basic Income

#86
post #24

Can they not do basic math? There are around 30 mil adults in California. Even if provision 18992.1 (b) is 5 mil people, that's still 25 mil people. That's 25 mil * $12,000 = $300 bil a year. The ENTIRE California state budget for 2020 is only $220 bil. They would have to more than double the tax revenue for a state with already very high taxes. Now, assuming the most generous interpretation of their 10% VAT proposal…

If you double taxes, but the money is literally just going back into people's pockets, less administration fees of the UBI program, it's just income redistribution and can completely work.

Least admin fees is when my money stays in my pocket.

Re: AB2712 – California Universal Basic Income

#87
post #56

If you pass this without passing radical reform of zoning and building millions more homes, it will be yet another wealth transfer mechanism from poor consumers to wealthy California landholders. Rents will eventually match the increase in income as way too much demand chases an incredible, inhumane, History Will Judge You shortage of supply. Which, amazingly, is one of the reasons this could actually pass. Californi…

You write as if markets are a zero sum game, however they are most certainly not. You say the poor tenant will transfer wealth to the wealthy landlord as if the tenant is losing. However -- they are both gaining. Say the rent is $1000. Obviously, the property usage right is worth to the landlord less than $1000, otherwise he would've just used the property himself. He gains. The property usage right is worth more tha…

I wrote a long answer to your post but a shorter one is this: the housing market in California is absolutely a zero sum game due to policies that essentially hold the supply as fixed.

Re: AB2712 – California Universal Basic Income

#88
post #24

Can they not do basic math? There are around 30 mil adults in California. Even if provision 18992.1 (b) is 5 mil people, that's still 25 mil people. That's 25 mil * $12,000 = $300 bil a year. The ENTIRE California state budget for 2020 is only $220 bil. They would have to more than double the tax revenue for a state with already very high taxes. Now, assuming the most generous interpretation of their 10% VAT proposal…

This is just a guess but the GDP of California is estimated to be around $3tn. So $300bn is approx 10% GDP. So, by VAT, maybe they mean a 10% haircut on absolutely everything?

Nope. This link appears to be the Bill text which I’ll peruse in a moment, but here’s the Newsweek article I was reading last night.

https://www.newsweek.com/new-bill-would-give-nearly-every-ca...

And the relevant bit:

“The program would be paid for with a state value-added tax of 10 percent on goods and services, with exemptions for groceries, medicine, medical supplies, clothing, textbooks and other items. Recipients of several programs, including the state's Medicaid plan, would be ineligible.”

Not to wax too political here, but the insane part to me isn’t even the UBI bit which I’m not fond of but open to changing my view in the coming decades, the insane part is the introduction of a new type of tax we previously didn’t have, and near as I can tell isn’t intended to replace the sales tax, and not just a new tax, but at a pretty high rate.

Actually you know what? I just looked at the bill text, it was less than I thought and it was more insane than I thought. Here’s section 2:

“SEC. 2. It is the intent of the Legislature to fund the CalUBI Program with a value-added tax of 10 percent on goods and services, except medicine, medical supplies and equipment, educational materials, including textbooks, tuition or fees for education, food, groceries, and clothing.”

It is the intent of the legislature to fund it with a VAT, and if you know anything at all about California law, then you probably know that means a ballot measure which will need 2/3 support from the electorate. Theoretically that ballot measure could be used to replace the sales tax, but it probably won’t be because only part of the sales tax is State, and much of it is appropriated by law to fund very specific projects or programs.

Re: AB2712 – California Universal Basic Income

#89

The precautionary principle seems to be thrown to the wind here. The unintended consequences of such a policy are far-reaching and poorly understood. UBI has seen a lot of coverage in the media recently and gets a lot of people excited on social media. Most coverage of it is shallow, but even the most in-depth studies of it that have been performed have been too small scale to have any bearing on the reality of trans…

Although both a smaller payout and a smaller state, the Alaska Permanent Fund is interesting precedent.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Permanent_Fund

I agree that the CA proposal feels reckless, though.

Re: AB2712 – California Universal Basic Income

#90
post #56

If you pass this without passing radical reform of zoning and building millions more homes, it will be yet another wealth transfer mechanism from poor consumers to wealthy California landholders. Rents will eventually match the increase in income as way too much demand chases an incredible, inhumane, History Will Judge You shortage of supply. Which, amazingly, is one of the reasons this could actually pass. Californi…

You write as if markets are a zero sum game, however they are most certainly not. You say the poor tenant will transfer wealth to the wealthy landlord as if the tenant is losing. However -- they are both gaining. Say the rent is $1000. Obviously, the property usage right is worth to the landlord less than $1000, otherwise he would've just used the property himself. He gains. The property usage right is worth more tha…

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