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Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

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Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#121

Post by theobeers »

ic4l wrote: post #68
qiqitori wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While 2% is indeed the WHO's current official early estimate, it's still very early to give accurate numbers here. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Using the "closed cases" figures on this page (currently: 27892 closed cases, 25265 recovered, 2627 deaths), we get a fatality rate closer to 9.4%, but I've been monitoring this page for a while, and the fatality rate based on this calculation has improved a lot…

I have been confused about this 2-3% figure since they started using it... I mean they are not factoring in the lag-time. It seems like they just are taking all the new patients, and not calculating it correctly. I expect this number to grow.

There are multiple forces at play. On the one hand, as you note, it takes time for people to die, which could initially bias the fatality rate downward. On the other hand, a lot of milder cases will be missed entirely, which would bias the rate upward. My understanding is that the latter factor is considered more significant in the early stages of an epidemic like this.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#122

Post by nradov »

radicalbyte wrote: post #65
gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

There's a flu going around in The Netherlands right now, it progresses like this: - Day 1: Fever, fatigue and muscle pain with a dry itchy cough. - Day 2+: Nausea and diarrhea can be experienced as well as the first day symptoms. It takes about a week for the worst of the symptoms to die down however the stomach ache, cough and light tiredness last weeks. My entire family and most of my son's class at school has had…

Did you and your family get the flu vaccine this season?

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#123

Post by JulianMorrison »

allovernow wrote: post #13

Is it time to start treating this like a big deal yet? Their first case was three weeks ago and 50 deaf already? This virus is unprecedented and it is only responsible for individuals with means to start preparing. No reason to wait for the government to tell you to do so. Plus each person that does it early is one less for the potential store rush.

What 50 dead means is, vastly larger numbers of mild infections being covered up or not reported. It doesn't mean it got deadly. It means they're lying how big it is.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#124

Post by wcoenen »

roenxi wrote: post #59
gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

> Stay vigilant, stay careful, but most importantly, do not spread mass hysteria and panic. In the last month almost 1% of the current population of the earth quarantined in China [0]. What exactly worries you about mass hysteria and panic? Why would that be worse than what is likely to happen as Covid-19 spreads outside of China? I'm all in favor of not overselling the danger; but this virus is a real concern. I mea…

> What exactly worries you about mass hysteria and panic? Why would that be worse than what is likely to happen as Covid-19 spreads outside of China?

Think houses getting torched because the inhabitants are suspected of having the virus. Judging from what happened in Ukraine, we're getting closer to that kind of hysteria.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-riots-erupt-in-ukraine-as-...

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#125

Post by thrower123 »

Merrill wrote: post #91

It seems odd that there are no cases reported in Laos, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesia. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... Possibly these countries have no way of monitoring and reporting COVID-19? In which case we are likely to have new, large clusters added in the coming weeks.

I am somewhat baffled that there have been essentially no reports of this disease in India.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#126

Post by senordevnyc »

aaron695 wrote: post #102
bilekas wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lets blame the media ? What are you talking about. The media is reporting whats happening as it gets it, if Iran's media is being silenced that got nothing to do with the virus itself and more about the control of panic. > We also need the immediate relaxation of sanctions around this on Iran I'm pretty sure the WHO couldn't give a rats about US sanctions when it comes to human rights and world health.

> The media is reporting whats happening as it gets it, No they simply are not. Should I be watching Fox? Iran has 12 people dead atm. This is unheard of in any country other than China. We have known this high toll for 3 days. Last Friday is was thought to be 9! Who has headlined this? CNN has Italy and South Korea as it's headlines right now and today, they pail in comparison to Iran. This is not a high toll, this…

The NY Times app has consistently had the outbreak in one of the top 2-3 spots for weeks now. Their live updates listed right now show official figures from Iran, Italy, and South Korea, as well as news about China and global markets reacting to the news. I’ve been closely watching both the NYT and the more panic-driven subreddits for a month now and I haven’t seen anything of substance that the NYT has missed. They usually lag by minutes to as much as a day, likely because they’re actually fact-checking instead of just mashing the post button like Reddit.

If you’re looking for large news organizations to freak out about every little unsubstantiated rumor or crackpot theory that circulates the web, then I don’t know what to tell you. Except that you’re willfully ignoring the 90% of the time those crackpot ideas turn out to be wrong and spreading them to billions of people would do far more harm than good, especially compared to just waiting to get the facts straight.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#127

Post by marcinzm »

af0GRLoH wrote: post #75
simonh wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What exactly worries you about mass hysteria and panic? Why would that be worse than what is likely to happen as Covid-19 spreads outside of China? Because then in addition to the damage caused by the outbreak, we will also have the additional often useless and counterproductive damage caused by hysteria and panic.

That is just understood as the hypothesis and the framing of the question. What is the nature of the useless and counterproductive damage caused by hysteria and panic ? (I could speculate that it changes economic flows that upsets long term planning and so on, but I would like to hear the opinion of experts on the matter anyway).

>What is the nature of the useless and counterproductive damage caused by hysteria and panic?

Of the top of my head.

Hoarding of supplies causing shortages and harming people who actually need them right now. Progressing to health professionals lacking supplies (masks, etc.) due to shortages (and diverting of dedicated supplies). Unnecessary ER visits which stress the health system thus making it less able to react to an actual problem (as health professionals are tired and burned out). Stress and unnecessary interventions/ER visits increasing people's risk and exposure to existing diseases.

edit: That's not counting real panic which involves mobs with metaphorical pitchforks and the military in streets enforcing some semblance of order (with bullets).

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#128

Post by fauigerzigerk »

simonh wrote: post #120
fauigerzigerk wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but stressing the importance of avoiding "hysteria and panic" is also extremely popular with authoritarian regimes justifying censorship and trying to cover up their own incompetence. There was a window of opportunity during which this virus could have been contained. The Chinese dictatorship has squandered it in the name of "avoiding panic and hysteria". Panic and hysteria should be avoided by being transpare…

'But' what? Would you characterise the OP as avoiding being transparent, or playing down the dangers? Is anyone here acting like an authoritarian regime, or is anyone here saying anything contrarian to your point?

>Would you characterise the OP as avoiding being transparent, or playing down the dangers?

Yes, I would indeed. gzer0's original wording, which has now been edited out (without comment), was:

"Stay vigilant, stay careful, but most importantly, do not spread mass hysteria and panic"

Now the wording was changed to:

"Stay vigilant, stay careful, but most importantly, do not spread false information."

I welcome the change, because saying that the most important thing in the face of danger is to avoid panic and hysteria is wrong and characteristic of authoritarian language.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#129

Post by jacquesm »

wcoenen wrote: post #124
roenxi wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Stay vigilant, stay careful, but most importantly, do not spread mass hysteria and panic. In the last month almost 1% of the current population of the earth quarantined in China [0]. What exactly worries you about mass hysteria and panic? Why would that be worse than what is likely to happen as Covid-19 spreads outside of China? I'm all in favor of not overselling the danger; but this virus is a real concern. I mea…

> What exactly worries you about mass hysteria and panic? Why would that be worse than what is likely to happen as Covid-19 spreads outside of China? Think houses getting torched because the inhabitants are suspected of having the virus. Judging from what happened in Ukraine, we're getting closer to that kind of hysteria. https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-riots-erupt-in-ukraine-as-...

Morons. Ukraine has 0 confirmed cases as of today. Though there obviously may be cases there this is beyond ridiculous.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#130

Post by taurath »

gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

In the US, a 2 week stay in the hospital will cost you upwards of $50,000. Even if you have insurance, understand it will be a significant cost to you. If you’re uninsured like 20 million Americans or underinsured like 80 million, going to the hospital means automatic bankruptcy.

Every day our broken healthcare system will force many people to choose between all their families assets and getting care. This should not be a consideration, but often is.

If you are traveling to the US, please make sure you get as much travelers health insurance as possible.

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