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Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

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Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#61

Post by jamesrcole »

WJW wrote: post #30
tome wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have particularly useful historical information to hand then it would probably better to share it rather than hint at its existence.

Everyone who had history in high school has historical information about this. There have been numerous plagues throughout history with higher infectivity, higher lethality, and both relatively and absolutely higher death counts. Don't put the burden of looking up simple and easily findable information on other posters when you can easily google it yourself.

> Everyone who had history in high school has historical information about this

I don't recall any such information.

There's people on this site of all different ages, who grew up in all sorts of different places. How do you know what their high-school history covered?

In my school, history was mandatory in the first year of high-school, and I think it might have been in the second year as well. Hardly anyone did it as a subject for the remainder of their high-school years.

Needless to say, the content taught in those first 1-2 years barely even scratched the surface of historical topics.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#63

Post by gzer0 »

funklute wrote: post #50
gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

Are you aware if there is any data yet on what proportion of recoveries will experience lasting lung/other damage? For example, is the permanent lung damage seen so far (which I've only anecdotally read about, I must admit) mostly related to ARDS?

From a quick glance through UpToDate:

[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=32053470

Not allowed to do this and not sure how long this will be up; the entire UpToDate reprint on the latest we know about COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

[2] https://www.scribd.com/document/448592904/COVID-19

Edit: adding the SCRIBD to the main post. It's free. All 18 pages if anyone is interested.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#64

Post by mcv »

swarnie_ wrote: post #36
tiborsaas wrote: post #27

With the 150+ Italian cases (3 dead), it's probably safe to say that the virus is out of our control... which we probably never had. https://apnews.com/32540d09ec101aac057660ef1b0aa970

Its disappointing, China seemed a lot more open and transparent this time around compared to SARS. Unfortunately i still don't trust the numbers they publish.

They're also richer and travel more than they did during SARS. Travelers do a lot to help spread the virus.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#65

Post by radicalbyte »

gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

There's a flu going around in The Netherlands right now, it progresses like this:

- Day 1: Fever, fatigue and muscle pain with a dry itchy cough.

- Day 2+: Nausea and diarrhea can be experienced as well as the first day symptoms.

It takes about a week for the worst of the symptoms to die down however the stomach ache, cough and light tiredness last weeks.

My entire family and most of my son's class at school has had it and they're all still recovering. My wife is, after 3 weeks, still really ill. Probably because she's working full time and breastfeeding.

This is what makes the Corona-virus hard: at the start the symptoms are extremely similar to existing flu. Unless the case is extremely severe most people won't see a doctor let alone a hospital.

I don't see how it can be stopped.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#66

Post by gzer0 »

ddeck wrote: post #57
gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

For additional, evidence-based research along these lines, I'd recommend the coronavirus section of the Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus They are hosting preliminary research, case reports, commentary and discussion from qualified experts in the area, many of which are on the ground in affected areas.

I have uploaded the entire 18 page document available to UpToDate subscribers for free on SCRIBD for as long as they will allow it as well.

Good source you mention as well.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#67

Post by simonh »

roenxi wrote: post #59
gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

> Stay vigilant, stay careful, but most importantly, do not spread mass hysteria and panic. In the last month almost 1% of the current population of the earth quarantined in China [0]. What exactly worries you about mass hysteria and panic? Why would that be worse than what is likely to happen as Covid-19 spreads outside of China? I'm all in favor of not overselling the danger; but this virus is a real concern. I mea…

>What exactly worries you about mass hysteria and panic? Why would that be worse than what is likely to happen as Covid-19 spreads outside of China?

Because then in addition to the damage caused by the outbreak, we will also have the additional often useless and counterproductive damage caused by hysteria and panic.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#68

Post by ic4l »

qiqitori wrote: post #56
gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

While 2% is indeed the WHO's current official early estimate, it's still very early to give accurate numbers here. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Using the "closed cases" figures on this page (currently: 27892 closed cases, 25265 recovered, 2627 deaths), we get a fatality rate closer to 9.4%, but I've been monitoring this page for a while, and the fatality rate based on this calculation has improved a lot…

I have been confused about this 2-3% figure since they started using it... I mean they are not factoring in the lag-time.

It seems like they just are taking all the new patients, and not calculating it correctly. I expect this number to grow.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#69

Post by gzer0 »

roenxi wrote: post #59
gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

> Stay vigilant, stay careful, but most importantly, do not spread mass hysteria and panic. In the last month almost 1% of the current population of the earth quarantined in China [0]. What exactly worries you about mass hysteria and panic? Why would that be worse than what is likely to happen as Covid-19 spreads outside of China? I'm all in favor of not overselling the danger; but this virus is a real concern. I mea…

I have edited my last statement to say, let us not spread false information. Maybe that is better worded.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#70

Post by goblin89 »

_-___________-_ wrote: post #55
gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

Is that "day 1" before, after or during the 14 day incubation period that I keep seeing repeated? Do you have some good sources about the length of incubation?

The day 1 in this case is the day symptoms begin.

The 14 day figure is more of a recommendation for the duration of quarantine, intended to cover incubation period in excess.

As a sample of a timeline that actually happened, you can check out the short paper about German cases reported in January[0].

It appears to have taken 3–6 days from infection until symptoms started, and subsequently 2–4 days until patients felt healthy again (no symptoms anymore, virus still detected in saliva).

[0] https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

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