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Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

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Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#51

Post by cat199 »

swarnie_ wrote: post #36
tiborsaas wrote: post #27

With the 150+ Italian cases (3 dead), it's probably safe to say that the virus is out of our control... which we probably never had. https://apnews.com/32540d09ec101aac057660ef1b0aa970

Its disappointing, China seemed a lot more open and transparent this time around compared to SARS. Unfortunately i still don't trust the numbers they publish.

not in the field, but transparency/non-transparency of china has very little to do with being able to effectively contain something with a 14 day incubation period that is spread through indirect contact.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#52

Post by bilekas »

aaron695 wrote: post #11

This is a excellent case of the total failure of the media. Iran had obviously lost total control two days ago. Yet the media is still going on about South Korean and Italy, it seems clueless. We also need the immediate relaxation of sanctions around this on Iran. I 'think' WHO might be breaking some sanctions by currently helping Iran.

Lets blame the media ?

What are you talking about. The media is reporting whats happening as it gets it, if Iran's media is being silenced that got nothing to do with the virus itself and more about the control of panic.

> We also need the immediate relaxation of sanctions around this on Iran

I'm pretty sure the WHO couldn't give a rats about US sanctions when it comes to human rights and world health.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#53

Post by JimDabell »

tome wrote: post #24
akie wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This virus is unprecedented I think you need to read up on your history.

If you have particularly useful historical information to hand then it would probably better to share it rather than hint at its existence.

The Spanish Flu infected a quarter of the world's population and killed 50 million people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#54

Post by _-___________-_ »

oefrha wrote: post #5
Angostura wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like a slightly mangled quote - I think he's saying that no-one outside of the ministry has access to the Coronavirus mortality figures, so the lawmaker is presumably pulling the figures out of his butt.

The immediate sentence following gp’s out of context quote: > adding that lawmakers have no access to coronavirus statics and could be mixing figures on deaths related to other diseases like the flu with the new virus, which first emerged in China in December. So, not necessarily out of his butt, could be mixed up. In any case, 12 dead out of 61 (a quickly rising figure) is already terrible.

The 61 is almost certainly rising much more quickly than the 12. Many cases don't get counted early on, so the fatality rate at this stage is overstated and largely meaningless. Same thing happened everywhere else with a suddenly-noticed largeish outbreak.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#55

Post by _-___________-_ »

gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

Is that "day 1" before, after or during the 14 day incubation period that I keep seeing repeated? Do you have some good sources about the length of incubation?

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#56

Post by qiqitori »

gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

While 2% is indeed the WHO's current official early estimate, it's still very early to give accurate numbers here.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Using the "closed cases" figures on this page (currently: 27892 closed cases, 25265 recovered, 2627 deaths), we get a fatality rate closer to 9.4%, but I've been monitoring this page for a while, and the fatality rate based on this calculation has improved a lot. For example, on 2020-02-10, the figures were 4376 closed cases, 3466 recovered, 910 deaths, resulting in a fatality rate of 20.8%. (https://web.archive.org/web/20200210100748/https://www.world... <3 archive.org)

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#57

Post by ddeck »

gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

For additional, evidence-based research along these lines, I'd recommend the coronavirus section of the Lancet:

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

They are hosting preliminary research, case reports, commentary and discussion from qualified experts in the area, many of which are on the ground in affected areas.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#58

Post by bilekas »

heyflyguy wrote: post #28
akie wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This virus is unprecedented I think you need to read up on your history.

This virus, coupled with modern day speed of travel *Could be unprecedented. I don't enjoy your snark, I think this is a very serious issue!

The comment was not snark, it was based on your hyperbolic statement that this is unprecedented.

But whatever doctor, like any coronavirus, hygiene and good considerate practices will help.

The mortality rate is still around 2%-ish and hugely dependent on the health condition of the patient at time of contracting.

Its annoying, its serious and it's spreading for sure. But it is not Armageddon-scale unprecedented contagion.

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#59

Post by roenxi »

gzer0 wrote: post #32

Around 99% of the patients developed a high temperature, while more than half experienced fatigue and a dry cough. About a third also experienced muscle pain and difficulty breathing. Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill. Here's how symptoms progress among typical…

> Stay vigilant, stay careful, but most importantly, do not spread mass hysteria and panic.

In the last month almost 1% of the current population of the earth quarantined in China [0].

What exactly worries you about mass hysteria and panic? Why would that be worse than what is likely to happen as Covid-19 spreads outside of China?

I'm all in favor of not overselling the danger; but this virus is a real concern. I mean, unless someone has a very good argument why Hubei are somehow special and it can't happen again elsewhere everyone should be stocking up on supplies in case they are caught in a serious quarantine. The actions taken don't seem to be stopping exponential growth of this virus; if anything all that seems to be actively measured is how good countries are at producing testing kits.

> Only a small fraction die: The current fatality rate hovers around 2%.

If 2% of the people I know died this year, that would be the worst disaster in my country in my lifetime.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Wuhan_lockdown

Re: Iran lawmaker says 50 dead from coronavirus in city of Qom

#60

Post by heartbeats »

ianleeclark wrote: post #42
heartbeats wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's cutting off someone else's nose to spite their face. Big difference.

Unless it spreads, as pandemics like to do.

A zero-sum game is a zero-sum game is a zero-sum game. If it spreads, it's likely to do so to other MidEast countries and Africa. And while, in an ideal world, the US would like to be friends with everybody, they are cozying up to China. If that happens, the old adage goes: We had to destroy the village in order to save it.
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