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Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

virologydownunder.com

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Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#311

Post by maxerickson »

DangitBobby wrote: post #288
maxerickson wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your thesis here is that all the layers of the public health system would just shrug their shoulders in the event of an unexplained cluster of sick people. It's unrealistic.

No, their thesis is "There is almost certainly community spreading in the US that is going undetected," which is based on observations that the US is doing less testing despite having much greater populations and higher incidence of risk factors. Do you contest that statement and its supporting arguments?

They don't detect the disease by going around testing people at random, they test suspected cases (typically people sick enough to make contact with the health system, with symptoms of the thing being tested for).

For testing capacity to matter, there would need to be known clusters of suspected cases...if you have known clusters of an unknown disease, "undetected spreading" isn't exactly the situation you are in.

I apologize about the rhetorical framing of my other comment, I wasn't trying to put words in their mouth, I was pointing out a predicate that they did not address.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#313

Post by symplee »

johnwheeler wrote: post #49

Before you propagate this information and take action, read this post about the psychology of fear mongering, and ask yourself if you identify with it. 1. Do you tend to mistrust authority? 2. Do you feel powerless to control the course of your life? 3. Do you feel like you have special information and insight the rest of us do not? 4. Do you feel comfort when thinking about the end of the world because once it happe…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnum_effect

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#314

Post by wool_gather »

csomar wrote: post #285
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The plans the US already has for a flu pandemic should mostly carry over, no? COVID is probably worse than the seasonal flu, but it's not outside the reasonable range of what a flu pandemic could do.

> COVID is probably worse than the seasonal flu, but it's not outside the reasonable range of what a flu pandemic could do. I think the issue is that we don't know yet how bad COVID-19 is. China is hiding stuff and it's not clear what is going on over there. There are also some uncomfortable, if true, things about it: like asymptomatic transmission for 2 weeks and ability to survive on surfaces for 5 days on certain…

Yep. The possibility of continued contagiousness after recovery is also a point of concern: https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-recovered-patients-trac...

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#315

Post by goatinaboat »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #182
justin66 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do not tell people to stock up on food. This is how you create runs on supermarkets and panic. No. Runs on supplies generally happen well after it becomes desperately obvious that the people advising preparation measures be taken were correct. The Costcos and Walmarts of the world, and their suppliers, can very easily absorb the bump in food demand from the very few who actually plan ahead. > If the situation becom…

I find it interesting that China has managed to keep things organised in Wuhan and throughout the country but American commenters on HN seem to expect that in their country it would be Mad Max.

find it interesting that China has managed to keep things organised in Wuhan

They “prepped” by stocking up on “being a police state” beforehand.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#316

Post by carbocation »

stallmanite wrote: post #261
carbocation wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With few exceptions, you should be able to ask your MD for a 90 day supply with 3 refills (enough for 3 months immediately, with refills for the rest of the year).

But the exceptions are the things you really don’t want to be running out of. Which is extremely unfortunate and silly given that those who want to source these things illicitly will do so and those who follow the rules will suffer.

Not sure what you're referring to. I'm thinking of medications like injectables, which may not have a sufficient shelf life to permit getting the full set of supplies all at once. But most of the medications which are life-threatening if withheld (e.g., antiplatelet medications after a stent) can be obtained in bulk with a normal prescription.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#317

Post by jwatt »

patagonicus wrote: post #7

As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: What should I personally do to prepare? I'm living alone and have the ability to work remotely once the virus starts spreading here. My guess is mostly stocking up on food, which I've planned to do for a long time - sounds like a good motivation to finally prepare a list and get shopping. Should I bother with a N95 mask? I already have surgical ma…

I wonder if the single most effective thing that can be done to lessen symptom severity/risk of death is to work on improve cardiovascular fitness (since the clear majority of deaths seem to be amongst people who have cardiovascular illness/weakness)? I haven't seen any advice to that affect though.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#318

Post by solnyshok »

dijksterhuis wrote: post #89
friendly_fren wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fish antibiotics

Antibiotics do not protect against viruses. This is a viral infection, not a bacterial one.

when stocking up on meds, I would certainly include antibiotics (need prescription in my country). just as water and food do not fight coronavirus, antibiotics is simply a BFG one needs to have around against simpler infections when hospitals are overloaded and supply systems halt.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#319

Post by sgt101 »

DevX101 wrote: post #134

This is one case where it's worth overreacting to. Biological epidemics are the only thing that has had the capacity to kill >50 million people in a year. In my risk classification hierarchy I put pandemics above nuclear war and wayyyy above terrorism. Yet we've spent trillions on the war on terror the past 20 years while there's no coordinated plan in the U.S. for this yet. If there's even a 2% chance of this going…

Nuclear war could kill hundreds of millions in a few hours. Why are you less concerned?

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#320

Post by DanBC »

jacquesm wrote: post #258
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Normally, yes, but the seasonal flu is excluded from the definition so we don't have to say that there's an annual recurring pandemic. When agencies talk about flu pandemic preparations, they're referring to an outbreak so severe that it no longer counts as just the seasonal flu.

Right. But COVID-19 isn't influenza related so all these flu comparisons are moot as far as I'm concerned. The mortality appears for now - with all the figures that I've seen - to be much higher. If this thing keeps going like it has for the last couple of weeks then it will make the last H1N1 pandemic look like a walk in the park. The final count on that was 100's of thousands dead in 199 different countries. And it…

But new pathogens always look much worse than they are because we haven't got testing sorted out yet. We test the very serious cases, we don't test the mild cases.
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