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Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

virologydownunder.com

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Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#101

Post by CapitalistCartr »

patagonicus wrote: post #7

As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: What should I personally do to prepare? I'm living alone and have the ability to work remotely once the virus starts spreading here. My guess is mostly stocking up on food, which I've planned to do for a long time - sounds like a good motivation to finally prepare a list and get shopping. Should I bother with a N95 mask? I already have surgical ma…

If you had to spend 3-6 weeks homebound, literally not leaving at all, what would you need? Include the usual over-the-counter meds you might normally use in the course of a year.

Then, if the economy tanked as a result of an epidemic, for 3-5 years, what would you wish you'd bought beforehand?

That's about all you can do.

Remember, if you're homebound, you'll really want to exercise after a few days. Some way of doing that indoors is wonderful.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#102

Post by throwlaplace »

jacquesm wrote: post #51
johnwheeler wrote: post #49

Before you propagate this information and take action, read this post about the psychology of fear mongering, and ask yourself if you identify with it. 1. Do you tend to mistrust authority? 2. Do you feel powerless to control the course of your life? 3. Do you feel like you have special information and insight the rest of us do not? 4. Do you feel comfort when thinking about the end of the world because once it happe…

I wonder how those questions would be answered by that doctor that tried to ring the alarm but was silenced.

Have you ever heard The expression "the exception that proves the rule"? Do you understand the meaning of the expression? It means that the rule is so good that exceptions to it are so rare that they seem significant. The prototypical examples are plane crashes.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#103

Post by klipt »

drcode wrote: post #77
robjan wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Advising people to store food en masses is quite irresponsible. We have had rice, noodle, pasta, bleach and toilet paper shortages for around a month in Hong Kong caused by panic buying triggered by a rumour that there would be a supply disruption. We also went weeks where all of the fresh food was being bought out and frozen.

Sounds like the people who thought there would be a supply disruption were right, and the people who didn't see it coming are blaming the people who did see it coming.

No, sounds like there wasn't any "supply disruption", rather a "demand excess" from people who thought there might be one. Those are different things.

Bill Gates could cause a potato shortage if he started buying up all the potatoes in America. But that wouldn't be a supply disruption if farmers are still growing potatoes at the usual rate.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#104

Post by jacquesm »

dijksterhuis wrote: post #89
friendly_fren wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fish antibiotics

Antibiotics do not protect against viruses. This is a viral infection, not a bacterial one.

It would be funny if it weren't sad.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#105

Post by 0x8BADF00D »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #25
popotamonga wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most have older family no?

Sure. And we should be concerned for them. But I sense that many people are scared for their own lives and those of their children, which I feel is not really warranted. Maybe I'm generalizing my personal experience of my own mental state and who I've talked to, but that is what I've been exposed to. And of course the items discussed in the rest of my comment should modulate people's fears as well.

Regardless, it is always a good idea to have some backup supplies in case of a natural disaster. Whether it be an earthquake or pandemic or a storm.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#106

Post by tveita »

johnwheeler wrote: post #49

Before you propagate this information and take action, read this post about the psychology of fear mongering, and ask yourself if you identify with it. 1. Do you tend to mistrust authority? 2. Do you feel powerless to control the course of your life? 3. Do you feel like you have special information and insight the rest of us do not? 4. Do you feel comfort when thinking about the end of the world because once it happe…

This particular article and advice seems quite proportionate and level-headed. (In contrast to about 80% of Covid-19 articles posted on HN, TBQH)

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#107

Post by RandomBacon »

arkades wrote: post #64
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

The premise of this article is that we should essentially press the “panic button” now, to get people through the shock of preparing for a pandemic while we know it’s safe to do so. > Suggesting things people can do to prepare for a possible hard time to come doesn’t just get them better prepared logistically. It also helps get them better prepared emotionally. It helps get them through the Oh My God (OMG) moment eve…

> - Get extra prescription medicine now if you might need it I hate this advice. It's not "wrong," in the sense that technically it would be a good thing to do, but it's also so wrong that it transcends categories of right and wrong. Your refill schedule will not allow you to get extra prescription meds early. And if it did, your insurance wouldn't pay for it - which means paying sticker price, which means ... well,…

Ask the doctor to write your prescription for three months. Call up insurance company and get a "vacation" flag/whatever which will pay for three months. (Source: I used to do this)

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#108

Post by anonsivalley652 »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #11

We will see. The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down, but of course there's the possibility of biases like unreleased numbers and incomplete testing. I guess we will know in a few weeks which direction it is going to go. That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. Obviously it is a serious conce…

Yep. Thunderf00t did a video on the power of net infectivity rate as dominating the outbreak irrespective of mortality rate.

Infection can be most basically modeled by an ordinary diff eq. And what happens is when everyone knows about it, the infectivity drops off a cliff and the illness reaches a carrying capacity rather quickly and dies out with good sanitation and quarantines. It could be Ebola-deadly and it still dies out because the transmission rate drops to almost 0.

Because of self-preservation and global news, a modern pandemic would only work if it were like Hepatitis C and norovirus: very long incubation period and airborne.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#109

Post by zuminator »

arkades wrote: post #64
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

The premise of this article is that we should essentially press the “panic button” now, to get people through the shock of preparing for a pandemic while we know it’s safe to do so. > Suggesting things people can do to prepare for a possible hard time to come doesn’t just get them better prepared logistically. It also helps get them better prepared emotionally. It helps get them through the Oh My God (OMG) moment eve…

> - Get extra prescription medicine now if you might need it I hate this advice. It's not "wrong," in the sense that technically it would be a good thing to do, but it's also so wrong that it transcends categories of right and wrong. Your refill schedule will not allow you to get extra prescription meds early. And if it did, your insurance wouldn't pay for it - which means paying sticker price, which means ... well,…

What you're saying is true in the United States, but perhaps things work differently in Australia?

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#110

Post by mytailorisrich »

patagonicus wrote: post #7

As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: What should I personally do to prepare? I'm living alone and have the ability to work remotely once the virus starts spreading here. My guess is mostly stocking up on food, which I've planned to do for a long time - sounds like a good motivation to finally prepare a list and get shopping. Should I bother with a N95 mask? I already have surgical ma…

Do not tell people to stock up on food. There is no need and this is how you create runs on supermarkets and panic. If the situation becomes severe enough for this to become a problem, this will be organised by authorities.

Keep calm, follow basic hygiene, and be ready to work from home at short notice. Maybe don't travel unless you have to.

This is not the end of the world and the risk is low. Change course only if the risk to you becomes high based on facts.

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