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Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

virologydownunder.com

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Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#81

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

coconut_crab wrote: post #40
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #11

We will see. The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down, but of course there's the possibility of biases like unreleased numbers and incomplete testing. I guess we will know in a few weeks which direction it is going to go. That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. Obviously it is a serious conce…

> That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. This is my thoughts why Covid-19 is much more dangerous than seasonal flu: first it is much more virulent, and hard to detect, many of the infections in Korea were due to one 61 years old woman alone. Secondly the mortality rate is higher too, estimated at 2-3%, with the serious ca…

The mortality rate for hospitalized flu patients in the US is about 10%. Mortality rates of categories like "serious cases" depend on a bunch of arbitrary and unverifiable assumptions, so I don't think this proves the coronavirus is bad or isn't bad, but 10% isn't as high of a number as I think you're intuitively expecting.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#82

Post by [deleted] »

velcro wrote: post #44

At the risk of going full doomsday mode (and besides stockpiling on food and masks) - lets say pandemic happens and some useful meds/vitamins do go out of stock - is there any advice what those are i.e. what kind of meds/vitamins would be practical to buy right now to help fight/slow COVID-19/infection in the future?

[deleted]

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#84

Post by iforgotpassword »

dis-sys wrote: post #38
wcoenen wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down Those numbers are dominated by the reports from China. If you look at just the cases outside China, then those are still on an exponential curve with a doubling time of about 6 days. My plot of the WHO numbers outside China: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQTpoR9gmgei... Source of the numbers: https://www.who.int/emergencies/di…

mostly due to two clusters - a cult church in south korean and a ship in japan. will be interesting to see what curve you can get once you remove those two clusters.

I take these as examples of how quickly things can go wrong if they go wrong.

People seem to overconfidently brush this off as isolated incidents because religion is stupid and we're not all in a cruise ship. It could also serve as an example of how bad things can get if one person goes unidentified and happens to go to a crowded place. Like a teacher, or clerk, or waiter.

Just this past week a coworker returned from Beijing, and there was nothing in place at Frankfurt airport. No questions, no flyer asking you to wash your hands frequently, no phone number you're supposed to call if you feel sick... It's left to the common sense of the individual, which I don't trust everyone to have.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#85

Post by hu3 »

velcro wrote: post #44

At the risk of going full doomsday mode (and besides stockpiling on food and masks) - lets say pandemic happens and some useful meds/vitamins do go out of stock - is there any advice what those are i.e. what kind of meds/vitamins would be practical to buy right now to help fight/slow COVID-19/infection in the future?

I'm also interested in what drugs are commonly used on COVID-19 positive individuals.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#86

Post by ttul »

etangent wrote: post #56
johnwheeler wrote: post #49

Before you propagate this information and take action, read this post about the psychology of fear mongering, and ask yourself if you identify with it. 1. Do you tend to mistrust authority? 2. Do you feel powerless to control the course of your life? 3. Do you feel like you have special information and insight the rest of us do not? 4. Do you feel comfort when thinking about the end of the world because once it happe…

Regardless of the other three points, it is generally rational to mistrust authority because many authorities have repeatedly failed in the past to protect lives during emergency scenarios.

And yet 99% of the time, the authorities do a great job of running everything here in the west. The 1% of the time they fail, it proves the conspiracy theorists and fear mongers’ point.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#87

Post by ComodoHacker »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #57
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

The premise of this article is that we should essentially press the “panic button” now, to get people through the shock of preparing for a pandemic while we know it’s safe to do so. > Suggesting things people can do to prepare for a possible hard time to come doesn’t just get them better prepared logistically. It also helps get them better prepared emotionally. It helps get them through the Oh My God (OMG) moment eve…

What medicine should we purchase? What antivirals work well on it?

As I understand it, this advice is about prescription meds you have to take on a regular basis due to specific conditions you have.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#88

Post by scrooched_moose »

anonsivalley652 wrote: post #66
johnwheeler wrote: post #49

Before you propagate this information and take action, read this post about the psychology of fear mongering, and ask yourself if you identify with it. 1. Do you tend to mistrust authority? 2. Do you feel powerless to control the course of your life? 3. Do you feel like you have special information and insight the rest of us do not? 4. Do you feel comfort when thinking about the end of the world because once it happe…

InfoWars types. Arrogant paranoia often manifested in tribal communities that reinforce similar delusions. Recent example: the mom who killed her husband, brother and kids because she and her new lover believe in an "apocalypse" summer 2020.

I Brainwashed Myself With the Internet is another good example from a couple days ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/she-wanted-freebirth-no...

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#89

Post by dijksterhuis »

friendly_fren wrote: post #53
velcro wrote: post #44

At the risk of going full doomsday mode (and besides stockpiling on food and masks) - lets say pandemic happens and some useful meds/vitamins do go out of stock - is there any advice what those are i.e. what kind of meds/vitamins would be practical to buy right now to help fight/slow COVID-19/infection in the future?

Fish antibiotics

Antibiotics do not protect against viruses. This is a viral infection, not a bacterial one.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#90

Post by jessaustin »

robjan wrote: post #52
icegreentea2 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The specific advice for food storage is "weeks" not couple months - the couple months is directed at prescription meds. The different timelines allocated is likely due to the relative feasibility, the risk of running out, and the ease of resupply.

Advising people to store food en masses is quite irresponsible. We have had rice, noodle, pasta, bleach and toilet paper shortages for around a month in Hong Kong caused by panic buying triggered by a rumour that there would be a supply disruption. We also went weeks where all of the fresh food was being bought out and frozen.

This point of view is reasonable only if food disruption is actually very unlikely. If there were food supply disruption in Hong Kong, having a great deal of nonperishable and frozen food on hand would be a good idea for most residents, wouldn't it? The fact that rumors were enough to generate shortages for a month in itself confirms a certain degree of insecurity...
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