Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

virologydownunder.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 394 posts

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#71

Post by amluto »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #57
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

The premise of this article is that we should essentially press the “panic button” now, to get people through the shock of preparing for a pandemic while we know it’s safe to do so. > Suggesting things people can do to prepare for a possible hard time to come doesn’t just get them better prepared logistically. It also helps get them better prepared emotionally. It helps get them through the Oh My God (OMG) moment eve…

What medicine should we purchase? What antivirals work well on it?

None yet. Make sure you have an adequate supply of whatever other meds you need.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#72

Post by jpm_sd »

There is a lot of panicky misinformation out there, the WHO is calling it an "infodemic"!

This Wikipedia article is doing a respectable job tracking some of the conspiracy theories and falsehoods:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misinformation_related_to_the_...

Wikipedia also has a good summary of the overall state of things:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_ou...

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#73

Post by jacquesm »

dis-sys wrote: post #38
wcoenen wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down Those numbers are dominated by the reports from China. If you look at just the cases outside China, then those are still on an exponential curve with a doubling time of about 6 days. My plot of the WHO numbers outside China: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQTpoR9gmgei... Source of the numbers: https://www.who.int/emergencies/di…

mostly due to two clusters - a cult church in south korean and a ship in japan. will be interesting to see what curve you can get once you remove those two clusters.

If you remove all the people that died you end up with zero fatalities!

The problem with those clusters is that in close proximity the virus spreads very fast. There are quite a few communities where people are living together about as close to each other as if they were on a cruise ship. Hong Kong comes to mind.

Rural communities where people are less likely to have intensive contact and shared resources are less at risk to begin with. You don't remove those either to get 'more interesting curves'.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#74

Post by mrb »

robjan wrote: post #52
icegreentea2 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The specific advice for food storage is "weeks" not couple months - the couple months is directed at prescription meds. The different timelines allocated is likely due to the relative feasibility, the risk of running out, and the ease of resupply.

Advising people to store food en masses is quite irresponsible. We have had rice, noodle, pasta, bleach and toilet paper shortages for around a month in Hong Kong caused by panic buying triggered by a rumour that there would be a supply disruption. We also went weeks where all of the fresh food was being bought out and frozen.

Assuming the pandemic will happen, people will buy in bulk and cause shortages anyway. So we are better off getting people to buy food sooner rather than later. This gives more time for stores to replenish stocks.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#75

Post by bpfrh »

est31 wrote: post #30

> One horrible effect of this continued “stop the pandemic” daydream masquerading as a policy goal: It is driving counter-productive and outrage-inducing measures by many countries against travelers from other countries, even their own citizens back from other countries. But possibly more horrible: The messaging is driving resources toward “stopping,” and away from the main potential benefit of containment – slowing…

Closing borders isn't easy.

Most of the time there are still ways you can cross, so instead of having known routes where you can test and treat accordingly, you have an unknown number of people crossing the border on unknown points and spreading the virus in unknown regions.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#76

Post by exikyut »

jacquesm wrote: post #14
joak wrote: post #2

In the preparation list, scaling ICU is most needed. A lot of people survived thank to intensive care units. There might not be enough to cope with the peak

That 'might' is probably safely replace with 'are'. No country - even the richest - is prepared to deal with this many ICU cases. For instance in the UK (which has a very good healthcare system) there are about 6k ICU beds on a population of ~65 million. And then there is the risk of having ICU personnel become infected themselves. This is not a trivial challenge.

Perhaps that's why there's no point declaring a pandemic.

If you do, some prepare, some panic, the panicking ones clog the ICU and the virus spreads like wildfire, the ICU can't keep up.

If you don't, nobody prepares, everybody's sprung upon and taken by surprise, the stampedes oversubscribe ICU capacity in much the same way as above.

At the end of the day I think the two variables all of this boils down to are infrastructure capacity limits and individual survival rates - and that no relevant models exist that can readily catalyze this specific set of circumstances with confidence. IIUC, what models do exist are not precise/disambiguating enough. So it all comes down to unresolvable clique interpretation. Officials can't work with that. :(

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#77

Post by drcode »

robjan wrote: post #52
icegreentea2 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The specific advice for food storage is "weeks" not couple months - the couple months is directed at prescription meds. The different timelines allocated is likely due to the relative feasibility, the risk of running out, and the ease of resupply.

Advising people to store food en masses is quite irresponsible. We have had rice, noodle, pasta, bleach and toilet paper shortages for around a month in Hong Kong caused by panic buying triggered by a rumour that there would be a supply disruption. We also went weeks where all of the fresh food was being bought out and frozen.

Sounds like the people who thought there would be a supply disruption were right, and the people who didn't see it coming are blaming the people who did see it coming.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#78

Post by huy-nguyen »

carbocation wrote: post #36
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

The premise of this article is that we should essentially press the “panic button” now, to get people through the shock of preparing for a pandemic while we know it’s safe to do so. > Suggesting things people can do to prepare for a possible hard time to come doesn’t just get them better prepared logistically. It also helps get them better prepared emotionally. It helps get them through the Oh My God (OMG) moment eve…

I think there is a real need to understand how much of a vector our phone screens are. People touch their phones, wash their hands, and then touch their phones again.

I have a UV sterilizer (phonesoap XL) at home and put my phone and keys in once a day for 15 minutes. No water involved.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#79

Post by RaSoJo »

dis-sys wrote: post #31
patagonicus wrote: post #7

As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: What should I personally do to prepare? I'm living alone and have the ability to work remotely once the virus starts spreading here. My guess is mostly stocking up on food, which I've planned to do for a long time - sounds like a good motivation to finally prepare a list and get shopping. Should I bother with a N95 mask? I already have surgical ma…

I have: 1. n95 masks, e.g. 50 of them. technically, each mask can only last several hours 2. UVC light for cleaning up used n95 masks so they can last a few days each 3. protective eyeglasses if you need to visit hospital for any reason in the next few months 4. ethanol (not for your masks) 5. medical gloves

I was under the impression an n95 could last much longer (Days/Weeks). Could you help me understand why you feel it will last just for hours?

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#80

Post by anonsivalley652 »

PSA: spreading FUD and panic isn't helping anyone. The common flu is a "pandemic" every year, so should we freak out and buy 1000 kg of wheat while inconsistently not having any means of food production? Don't act out of fear; act out of reason, honesty and proportionality.
Post reply on HN