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Suspicious Discontinuities

danluu.com

221–230 of 307 posts

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#221
post #74

The perverse incentives around these discontinuities is one of the worst misfeatures of programs intended to help people. Here is a real example. My niece wound up with 3 kids, divorced, with inconsistent child support payments. So she went on food stamps. She was looking for a better job. She found one, interviewed, and they wanted to hire her. But the salary that they offered was $0.50/hour too much for her to stay…

Sounds like the business should be paying their employees enough to feed their families.

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#222
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Especially in the UK, where there literally are people starving to death now. People in the US who live in a comfortable six-figure-middle-class bubble really have no idea how precarious their position is. All it takes is one expensive long-lasting serious illness and they'll be out on the street with the other people who "made poor choices."

> All it takes is one expensive long-lasting serious illness and they'll be out on the street with the other people who "made poor choices." You declare bankruptcy, your assets are divided up among your creditors and you start over again. That's why bankruptcy exists. Several (most?) states even let one keep one's home. Maybe we need a law to prevent landlords from refusing to let based on prior bankruptcy — would ha…

It's hard to start over out of a box.

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#223
post #176
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of universal credit was not to solve any particular problem - it was to give conservative politicians something to say when their voters demanded something must be done [about people on benefits]. The world makes a lot more sense when you realise that laws and regulations are primarily conceived and constructed to keep incumbents in power. Maybe we should vote in our representatives for life then they'd a…

>The purpose of universal credit was not to solve any particular problem - it was to give conservative politicians something to say when their voters demanded something must be done [about people on benefits]. It's both. The idea of Universal Credit is a good one - it rationalised dozens of benefits into one programme. Unfortunately the implementation is - because Tories - a terrible system that causes more problems…

But no one involved in creating universal credit did so for any other reason than as an excuse to cut the number of people who are eligible.

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#224
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> some sort of meritocracy What definition of merit are you using that it's not? > most people don't describe themselves as racist, but a surprisingly high number of people are Calling people racist for preferring to date a particular race is just silly, you might as well call people sexist for preferring to date a particular gender.

It really depends on the reason to prefer to date a particular race. A: If it's aesthetic, sure (though one might ponder to what extent euro-centric beauty standards are indicative of inherent attractiveness vs a desire to fit into the current dominant culture: fair skin is now very popular world-wide, skin lightening is a big thing in Asia, the most popular plastic surgery tends to try to replicate european features…

I originally didn't respond to this because you had a pretty good point and I didn't really have anything to add to it. You're apparently getting hammered, though, so I feel like I should say something, so... you're spot on here.

In defense of humankinds' innate fairness, though, I feel I should point out that all the reasoning about genetics and demographics and 'those people' in the world will not overrule someone's intrinsic assessment of a potential partner's attractiveness. The young lads and lasses will go out and shack up with whoever tickles their fancy. The older generation will tut-tut and justify their disapproval, but who ever listens to them?

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#225
post #74

The perverse incentives around these discontinuities is one of the worst misfeatures of programs intended to help people. Here is a real example. My niece wound up with 3 kids, divorced, with inconsistent child support payments. So she went on food stamps. She was looking for a better job. She found one, interviewed, and they wanted to hire her. But the salary that they offered was $0.50/hour too much for her to stay…

The leftist solutions are to get rid of of the conditions entirely, and find non-means-tested ways to accomplish goals more universally. The advantage here is significantly reduced administrative costs, freeing up time and energy of those in a tough situation on recovery rather then stress over beurocracy and limitations, and of course, people not viewing the people on the programs as morally deficient. Social securi…

I dunno, wasn't it Milton Friedman who was promoting UBI during the Nixon administration?

I've got this funny feeling that Congress likes legalistic solutions to problems because they are mostly lawyers. (All lawyers when it comes to Democrats) The pain of filling out paperwork for means testing seems less painful to them than it does to the general population.

The 'swiss cheese' approach to social services is one of the major reasons why U.S. health care is so FUBAR and so hard to fix. Old people have Medicare and they vote -- they don't see there is a problem. Many people get insurance from their employer and might have no idea what their employer pays or how stressful it is for employers to negotiate benefits every year. Veterans have a program, there is Medicaid for really poor people, Medicaid expansion for somewhat poor people, Obamacare exchanges for people who are almost poor, etc.

When you add it all up there is a small pool of people "left behind" and most of those people are transiently uninsured because they'll wind up in some covered category. Balance that against a larger population afraid of losing what they have, and you have gridlock.

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#226
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of welfare and food stamp recipients are the working poor. This was a single mom with three children. She needs to arrange for child care while she's working and it's a good idea to set aside money for medical emergencies. I'm going to guess this job probably pays a few dollars above minimum wage. Someone in this situation is absolutely eligible for food stamps. But if we get another four years of MAGA, then wh…

Right, that's not the point. The point is that taking a pay cut , with apparently no other change in circumstance, somehow rendered her ineligible for a social service she was already receiving . I want to know what rule made that possible, as it appears to be critical to this discussion of perverse discontinuities.

Does the food stamp program look at hourly wage as your income determinant, instead of weekly income?

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#227
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Slightly off-topic but this reminded me of what is perhaps their most depressing pair of graphs. Look at "A woman's age vs. the age of the men sho look best to her" https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/1439100617... and then compare that with "A man's age vs. the age of the women who look best to him" https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/1439100617...

Why is it depressing? Biologically this must be tuned to the best age for having kids, and men's age hardly matters.

You would think so, but this is not accurate. Graphs for proportional rate of preterm birth vs mother's age: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/figure/image?id=10...

And rate of infant mortality vs mother's age: https://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/hua_hsu/cohen_i...

Both have a minimum in the early 30s, a decade off from these numbers. Granted, there's likely some confounding due to poverty rates vs age of pregnancy, but the data simply does not support the conclusion that 20 is the best, healthiest age for a woman to bear a child. There's still some development and biological maturation going on into the 20s.

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#228
post #221
post #74

The perverse incentives around these discontinuities is one of the worst misfeatures of programs intended to help people. Here is a real example. My niece wound up with 3 kids, divorced, with inconsistent child support payments. So she went on food stamps. She was looking for a better job. She found one, interviewed, and they wanted to hire her. But the salary that they offered was $0.50/hour too much for her to stay…

Sounds like the business should be paying their employees enough to feed their families.

What is a "family"? Should a business adjust the salary based on how many members you have in your family? If one person has 10 kids and another has 2 they have drastically different requirements. An only child with a well-off family might only be taking care of themselves whereas another child might need to also be taking care of their parents and grandparents who also need to pay for medicines in addition to taking care of their younger sibling who isn't old enough to work yet.

The variety and complexity of "enough to feed their families" is crazy.

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#229
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you have misread or misunderstood this. Under the old system, it was possible to take a job, and then have less actual income than you did before. Under the new system, _every_ extra hour of work you do causes you to have more money in your pocket, and you are always incentivized to do more work, or start a job that pays less now but might pay more as your experience grows. I'm not sure how else you'd want th…

My point was that 63% is still very bad, and if it’s supposed to be an improvement, then the existing system is abysmal from an incentive perspective.

"My point was that 63% is still very bad, and if it’s supposed to be an improvement, then the existing system is abysmal from an incentive perspective."

This is fascinating.

There is an entirely separate debate about tax rates and incentives for high income tax payers wherein it is suggested that marginal income tax rates almost identical to the 63% you are speaking of are fair, equitable, common-sensible and could not possibly deter earners from pursuing extra marginal dollars.

I have no comment to make about either debate.

I simply find it fascinating that an exactly opposite conclusion is made depending on the subject involved ...

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The leftist solutions are to get rid of of the conditions entirely, and find non-means-tested ways to accomplish goals more universally. The advantage here is significantly reduced administrative costs, freeing up time and energy of those in a tough situation on recovery rather then stress over beurocracy and limitations, and of course, people not viewing the people on the programs as morally deficient. Social securi…

I dunno, wasn't it Milton Friedman who was promoting UBI during the Nixon administration? I've got this funny feeling that Congress likes legalistic solutions to problems because they are mostly lawyers. (All lawyers when it comes to Democrats) The pain of filling out paperwork for means testing seems less painful to them than it does to the general population. The 'swiss cheese' approach to social services is one of…

Milton Friedman did have a proposal for elimination of poverty in the 60’s, but it wasn’t UBI. It was a negative income tax for those below the poverty line [1]. To some extent we have that now in the earned income tax credit.

[1] https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/negative-incom...

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