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Suspicious Discontinuities

danluu.com

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Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#171

Post by stared »

gwd wrote: post #169
stared wrote: post #36

Ad Polish end of high school exams: quite a few years ago I created an interactive widget to explore it https://github.com/stared/delab-matury . There are a few jokes about the Matural Distribution (Matura is the name of this exam) or the Polish Gaussian. It is the Polish language, which is the most discontinuous. However: - There are quite a few scores for the essay which are subjective (e.g. on the style). - It is…

> It is an official procedure that in the case of results on the edge, the person marking should mark an ambiguous score in the favour of the student. The funny thing about the "almost there" argument is that what it means is the actual line is more fuzzy, but a bit lower. That is, if the "official" cut-of is 30, and teachers are willing to "find an extra point" for people with scores of 28 and 29 but not 27, then th…

On conference deadlines and application times, there are some plots: https://p.migdal.pl/2017/11/15/after-pydata-warsaw-2017.html...

It is interesting when there are a few deadlines (e.g. early bird, regular, last call).

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#172

Post by stared »

ehnto wrote: post #39
stared wrote: post #36

Ad Polish end of high school exams: quite a few years ago I created an interactive widget to explore it https://github.com/stared/delab-matury . There are a few jokes about the Matural Distribution (Matura is the name of this exam) or the Polish Gaussian. It is the Polish language, which is the most discontinuous. However: - There are quite a few scores for the essay which are subjective (e.g. on the style). - It is…

> It is an official procedure that in the case of results on the edge, the person marking should mark an ambiguous score in the favour of the student Given that it's subjective, I find that a really generous and positive take on marking protocol. It takes some perspective to note that while you can't see the value in someone's work, there may still be value in it. edit: After reading through the article in full, I un…

I don't consider it virtuous!

By pushing more to pass:

- either the next year the problems will be more difficult,

- or it devaluates the worth of passing an exam.

Also, 30% is very low (especially as such cut-off are for the basic level exams, not advanced level exams). You get the high school diploma, but it is not something that is enough to get to any univ. that makes any sense (some will take such students, but only as they are being funded on the level of enrolment OR they are private and are essientially "a bribe-in rates for a diploma" style).

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#173

Post by evanpw »

scott_w wrote: post #144
akvadrako wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not a cliff and sounds like a step in the right direction, but it’s still effectively a 63%+whatever marginal tax rate.

I can’t remember the exact benefit numbers (they might overlap with National Insurance) but you don’t pay income tax until you’re earning over £11,000 so you shouldn’t pay marginal tax while on benefits.

Losing benefits as you make more money has the same effect as being taxed on that marginal income.

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#174

Post by dTal »

btilly wrote: post #74

The perverse incentives around these discontinuities is one of the worst misfeatures of programs intended to help people. Here is a real example. My niece wound up with 3 kids, divorced, with inconsistent child support payments. So she went on food stamps. She was looking for a better job. She found one, interviewed, and they wanted to hire her. But the salary that they offered was $0.50/hour too much for her to stay…

>the salary that they offered was $0.50/hour too much for her to stay on food stamps, and was less than her current job

I don't understand. How was she eligible for food stamps, if she already had a job that paid more?

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#175

Post by tremon »

SilasX wrote: post #112
mantap wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of universal credit was not to solve any particular problem - it was to give conservative politicians something to say when their voters demanded something must be done [about people on benefits]. The world makes a lot more sense when you realise that laws and regulations are primarily conceived and constructed to keep incumbents in power. Maybe we should vote in our representatives for life then they'd a…

If the system incentivizes capable people not to work and just live off taxes, that should be corrected.

That's a bit shortsighted. There are many valuable types of "work" in society that are not rewarded monetarily. Take for example, child rearing, community building, or caring for elderly/disabled/homeless people.

Should "the system" really push capable people into valueless jobs at the cost of meaningful jobs that have no monetary value?

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#176

Post by M2Ys4U »

mantap wrote: post #104
SilasX wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Relatedly, I learned about Universal Credit, an attempt by the UK to merge all their social benefits into one coherent system, and it seems like the cliff problem here is worse. From the BBC description: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41487126 >Under the old system many faced a "cliff edge", where people on a low income would lose a big chunk of their benefits in one go as soon as they started working more than 16 hours…

The purpose of universal credit was not to solve any particular problem - it was to give conservative politicians something to say when their voters demanded something must be done [about people on benefits]. The world makes a lot more sense when you realise that laws and regulations are primarily conceived and constructed to keep incumbents in power. Maybe we should vote in our representatives for life then they'd a…

>The purpose of universal credit was not to solve any particular problem - it was to give conservative politicians something to say when their voters demanded something must be done [about people on benefits].

It's both.

The idea of Universal Credit is a good one - it rationalised dozens of benefits into one programme.

Unfortunately the implementation is - because Tories - a terrible system that causes more problems than it solves.

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#177

Post by [deleted] »

chillacy wrote: post #135
tjr225 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Either that or a more progressive stance on socialist policies that provide basics to everyone. At least with socialist style policies there isn't the possibility of those spending their UBI on junk food or wine our whatever, but I really would prefer either to the current state of affairs.

Regarding the "basics to everyone" for programs, they're typically labeled "universal", and there are a number of advantages to universal programs: 1. They tend to be more resilient to budget cuts since everyone is bought in. 2. They don't have the discontinuities mentioned in the article. Regarding UBI, studies I've seen show that people tend to spend their money on "responsible" things (as opposed to drugs and lott…

[deleted]

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#178

Post by zeckalpha »

xyzzyz wrote: post #101
vageli wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cynic in me wouldn't be surprised if these new plans were offered by subsidiaries of Kaiser or Premera. I certainly hope that isn't the case. (edit: deleted parent quotation)

It literally makes no difference to Kaiser, because they get the same amount of money either way, only thing that changes is how that cost is split between the plan beneficiary and the other taxpayers subsidizing him.

Immediately, yes, but over the long term this could sway public opinion.

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#179

Post by FabHK »

fitech wrote: post #160
taneq wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this is the right way to look at it. In addition to being a free agent, every citizen should be treated as a shareholder in the nation.

no company that has costs well above revenue for decades is paying out dividends.

But many companies have debt that they just roll over. Not many companies aim to be debt free, because it is not necessarily a good goal. You need capital, and optimise its mix. At current rates, issuing debt is attractive.

Re: Suspicious Discontinuities

#180

Post by FabHK »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #162
peteretep wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your plan both massively increases the number of people on benefits and also increases costs by 20% on your 50% proposal, which in the UK means £15b-ish. Reconciling this with "even the tiniest amount" is impossible. > Also you could extend the curve so that 'benefits' go negative at the high end You've just invented tax, congratulations.

> massively increases the number of people on benefits You have a very different definition of 'massively' than I do. > You've just invented tax, congratulations. Positive taxes can balance out negative taxes, ~tada~.

Dylan, just note that the problem as originally posed is not solvable. Your „solution“ is one that violates one of the constraints and then says „but it’s minimal“. Sure. But that was exactly the point of the comment above: by the nature of things, any change you make leads to an undesirable consequence. Either people who need the benefits don’t get them, or the „marginal tax rate“ is very high, or you extend the benefits to more people (which is costly). You’re stuck on the horns of a trilemma, and that’s the solution the UK has chosen, and any „improvement“ you suggest will be worse on at least one of the dimensions.
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