As a citizen of Barcelona, I welcome this unspected event. A quiet end of winter wihtout thousands of crazy tourists collapsing all the services. I hope MWC celebrates in another city.
but what do you do for living?
I work for tech company
MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns
181–190 of 195 posts
Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns
#182Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The coronavirus has caused a lot of setbacks but it's only a short term problem We hope it's only a short term problem. It's far to early to say if this outbreak will be contained somehow, if it will continue into the summer, or if it will go away for the summer and come back in the winter again like the flu.
Even if it takes longer, it's not permanent. Most components of the SP500 and other indices are not going to be bankrupted by this.
15-20% of people who get this illness require hospitalisation. In the worst case scenario where it infects a billion people... you can do the maths. There is a huge potential for disruption to production and supply chains, especially in developing countries with developing healthcare systems.
If this situation gets out of control, it could trigger a global recession. Nobody is buying much from Wuhan for the foreseeable future. Imagine what would happen if it spreads across Asia.
Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns
#183Earlier quoted context omitted.
Containment in China is not going well. Other countries containment + quarantining China is going well.
That is exactly my point -- other countries are effectively containing the virus to China, and it appears to be working very well.
Only a minority of countries are doing that. It might work now because most cases are in China. If self-sustaining outbreaks run out of control in Thailand and Singapore, will travellers from there be blocked too? It quickly becomes a game of cat and mouse.
Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns
#184While I feel sorry for the people that put the energy to make this happen and also for the people that may lose their jobs this month over this, as a native inhabitant of Barcelona, I can only celebrate the news, even if it is for this terrible reason. When MWC is ocurring in Barcelona, public transport (subway) goes on strike (because of the maximum impact). But usually this only fucks over non MWC attending people,…
Thanks for the local perspective! I get the feeling MWC is a bit of a scapegoat here, tough. > When MWC is ocurring in Barcelona, public transport (subway) goes on strike (because of the maximum impact). So won't they just choose any other date with the next highest impact for their strike now? Why is that better? > BCN is already overloaded with tourism, events like MWC only make it worse for those of us that live t…
4 days in 365 is already 1%.
If it was less, it would be relatively empty.
1% of visits to Barcelona is 50k[1]. So 100k more is a 3 fold increase.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barcelona#Tourism 5.5M in 2011, it must be much more now.
Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns
#185I just can't understand why the stock market keeps going up.
where would you take your money when interest rates are negative? (also how do you avoid a crash when interest rates stop being negative)
Given the short to long term treasury bond yield inversion in 2019, I'm preparing for a recession in 2021 by keeping 10% cash and clearing off all debt.
I also implemented a higher risk strategy when I rebalanced my portfolio at beginning of year: hedging a few healthcare stocks with predictions of around 6% returns, but could see a higher payoff if covid-19 hysteria sets in.
Skeptical of crypto performance during a recession, so rebalanced to 3%
Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
Containment in China is not going well. Other countries containment + quarantining China is going well.
That is exactly my point -- other countries are effectively containing the virus to China, and it appears to be working very well.
This is unlikely. What is more likely is that all of Chinas poor neighboring countries are simply not reporting cases.
North Korea, Mongolia, Nepal, Northern Thailand, North Vietnam, North India, Eastern Russia, will keep this infection going until the next major outbreak next winter.
Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns
#187Earlier quoted context omitted.
Summer is not a good time for a virus since the don’t survive Heath and the sun so well.
Given the number of cases in Singapore, this may not be the case for this virus.
Plenty of Singapore buildings have A/C. Some of the clusters so far include two churches, one Chinese medical store, and Grand Hyatt Singapore.
Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns
#188Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns
#189Earlier quoted context omitted.
From what I understand, the medical community is treating this outbreak with such extreme measures because this virus is a perfect storm of factors that could lead to a new annual disease emerging, just like the flu and cold. It's deadly enough to become a major global concern and transmissible enough that it can continue spreading via asymptomatic hosts and other viral reservoirs between outbreaks. The jury is still…
I hadn't even thought of the possibility that there could be a new cyclical virus that emerges! Thank you smart people in the WHO and global health community.
This is what virologists are expecting since it's clear containment has already failed.
Re: MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Everything points to this thing having a mortality similar to the seasonal flu. Can you justify this? I want to be convinced, because at the moment I think it's very optimistic. (There are different estimates for seasonal flu mortality, but it seems to be around 0.1%, so I'm assuming that's roughly the number you mean.)
The mortality measured in China is about 2%. Outside of China, I read it was rather 0.15%. And what I read is the 2% is based on the number of people who show up at the hospital with symptoms and get diagnosed. The doctors think there is a large but unknown population out there, with milder symptoms, who don't show up. Understandly. If you have what looks like a cold, you don't really want to go to the place where ev…
This is wrong. The only way to get 0.15 is by dividing dead over total cases - which is not the correct math since most people infected are still ongoing.
You have to divide dead over dead+recovered, and outside of China those numbers are still too small to get a reliable number.
In China it is 2% outside Wuhan, but inside Wuhan it is over 4% since the medical system has broken down.