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Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected

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Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected

#171

You have to wonder, when you see these stories, whether the engineers in charge of these programs spent much time driving around, trying to see the road like an AI might. In my experience, driving in the city, it's rare that I can go more than a few miles before some exception comes up that requires human judgment. Here's a few of the things I saw just last week: * Car double parked. Do I cross the center line to go…

For a mundane situation that's surprisingly difficult: toll booths. The highway goes from N lanes to N 5 (or more!) lanes and then back into N lanes, usually with the lane markings being completely absent in the process. You have to pick a lane to get into, with your choice being potentially impacted by such things as "are you a truck?", "exact change only", or "I have an EZ-Pass", not to mention the potential for so…

Put spaces around the * in "N * 5" to avoid the italics (or just write 5N).

Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being excessively cautious makes you an unpredictable driver as well. Unpredictability is the antithesis of safe driving.

In my experience, I have never been surprised by overly cautious drivers, only drivers who have an excess of confidence. How do you define 'excess caution'?

In Portland, OR we have 4-way intersections where the stop signs alternate every 2 blocks. Drivers still tend to stop at every intersection, even when they have no stop sign.

Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected

#173

I've been beating this drum for years (but I'm a nobody, so it's like pissing in the wind): 1. Anything less than 100% FULL automation is MORE dangerous than manual driving, because the "driver" will almost certainly lack any situational awareness. When the need for manual intervention happen, it will be at the moments where you need maximum awareness and split second reflexes. 2. There are SO many edge cases and nev…

To your first point, I'm not convinced that's true. People augment their lives in lots of ways that don't seem to reduce safety. A few examples off the top of my head: simple "dumb" cruise control hasn't lead to more accidents. Parachutes have auto-deploy features if the cord isn't pulled by a certain height. Scuba divers use dive computers that basically eliminate the need to learn dive tables (and beep at you when…

Not OP but to your last question I think there's proven danger in the "too familiar, too easy" zone, i.e. most car accidents for instance tend to happen in places you know pretty well — hence why you may get surprised when things happen out of the ordinary.

Whether it's an illusion of safety, a letdown of attention, the general idea is that humans should never trust that things will go well when there's real probability that they don't. I think it's not in the amount of automation, as you explained well, but rather in focusing users on the critical parts that they should watch out for — and there clearly automating helps us remove the unimportant from the equation, and also make us more responsive, more accurate for the important parts. But it's a lot of great UX, and that's one field where e.g. the military is usually great but commercial companies are abysmal if they can get away with it (read: sell enough to justify not spending a dime on more quality). That's worrying when security is involved, but it hasn't proven a moral or ethical problem for most industries absent of regulation (forced ethics, ha!), so... I think there's valid concern by OP.

As for passenger jets, the Airbus A320 (late 1980s) was the first commercial plane to have a "full" autopilot; all systems were electrical¹ (manoeuvering, thrust control, etc) which allowed the computer to integrate and manage it all. :)

It was tested a number of times by pilots for fun, from taking off to landing entirely on autopilot — ofc they're standing right there ready to take over if anything goes wrong but I've seen it first hand many times. We're talking commercial flights with passengers, it's 100% safe and actually quite "smooth" because the computer is so accurate.

Honestly, the problem is much, much, much easier for planes: a good GPS and it becomes quite the closed problem, and obviously 100% of autopiloted planes are simultaneously piloted by real humans... ready to take over. Yet a plane could technically land itself just fine if pilots were incapacitated, it really could. I suspect it did more than we know for many reasons. And when flying by instrument (means you see s__t), an autopilot is basically just a computer doing what a human would do slower by reading the same data (and maybe cross-checking with physical/manual instruments, but an autopilot doing the grunt work of stick-holding gives you more time to double, triple-check everything incidentally).

_____

[1]: Note that all systems are also doubled (even tripled) with mechanical (hydraulic etc) failovers, because obviously you can lose electricity in catastrophic situations, hence why it always seemed crazy to me that a planed requires software to fly properly instead of plain old good physics and mechanics).

Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you're saying we need to program our driverless cars to occasionally go on road-rage rampages if they're cut off too many times?

Nah. You need to have an ALRU and vehicle to vehicle comm net whereby all the self-driving AI's distribute amongst themselves information on jerk behavior so the entire macropopulation of AI cars can wolfpack these drivers. Now please laugh, put down the phone and don't even think about implementing this. It's a terrible idea.

I assume, by then, you'll see massive insurance discounts if you provide the feeds to your insurance company. They'll use these feeds to evaluate your risk and the risk of every car around you. Cars, especially those with manual drivers, who are seen causing unsafe conditions will receive an eventual, or maybe immediate, notice: "Your premium has been increased for aggressive driving".

Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected

#175
And they are just getting started with in Developed countries.

The real test for a self driving car would be on roads in third world countries.

That would be a real test of capability.

Meanwhile, I just wish I could drive my car without moving my legs or hands so often. Why can't somebody make a car such that it can be driven by, say a simple joystick like thingy.

Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected

#176

I've been beating this drum for years (but I'm a nobody, so it's like pissing in the wind): 1. Anything less than 100% FULL automation is MORE dangerous than manual driving, because the "driver" will almost certainly lack any situational awareness. When the need for manual intervention happen, it will be at the moments where you need maximum awareness and split second reflexes. 2. There are SO many edge cases and nev…

> The only way 100% fully self driving cars will ever happen is for the infrastructure itself to be built to accommodate them.

I think we'll see 100% automation for freeways within a short time. I think the only way we'll see 100% automation for arbitrary point a to point b in 50 years, that a standard human could "safely" do, is if we get flying transport.

Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected

#177
There are problems where we know how difficult the problem is. These problems, you can just throw money at them to make them work and the skill is in figuring out how to do it cheaply. There are other problems where we don't even know what we're missing. I see people, all the time, try to extrapolate current progress on problems where we don't know what puzzle pieces we're missing. Nobody knew what it was going to take to build self-driving cars, nor do we know what it will take today, but the hype machine that sucks in funding and grants and produces nothing pretended like this was a problem we understood and just had to throw money at it. I've found that asking "do we know what we don't know yet?" has been a surprisingly good way to cut through the bullshit over the years. I'd say "I told you so" if anyone knew who I was or had any reason to listen to me.

Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected

#178
post #33

Alternate headline: Some people overstated how simple this problem was because they didn't know what they were talking about, could promote themselves as experts, could get funding for a self-driving startup or some combination of the above. I guess that isn't as pithy but it's closer to the truth. When it became clear that Uber's strategy (under Kalanick anyway) was premised on replacing drivers with AIs before the…

Troll driving. Imagine testing/probing AI cars with the intent of getting them into an accident with you so you can sue for uber-millions and AI hysteria social media points.

Interestingly, that might actually lead to self driving cars being better in the end.

Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected

#179
post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah. You need to have an ALRU and vehicle to vehicle comm net whereby all the self-driving AI's distribute amongst themselves information on jerk behavior so the entire macropopulation of AI cars can wolfpack these drivers. Now please laugh, put down the phone and don't even think about implementing this. It's a terrible idea.

I assume, by then, you'll see massive insurance discounts if you provide the feeds to your insurance company. They'll use these feeds to evaluate your risk and the risk of every car around you. Cars, especially those with manual drivers, who are seen causing unsafe conditions will receive an eventual, or maybe immediate, notice: "Your premium has been increased for aggressive driving".

That actually doesn’t sound like a bad end state!

Re: Self-driving cars turned out to be harder than expected

#180

I've been beating this drum for years (but I'm a nobody, so it's like pissing in the wind): 1. Anything less than 100% FULL automation is MORE dangerous than manual driving, because the "driver" will almost certainly lack any situational awareness. When the need for manual intervention happen, it will be at the moments where you need maximum awareness and split second reflexes. 2. There are SO many edge cases and nev…

To your first point, I'm not convinced that's true. People augment their lives in lots of ways that don't seem to reduce safety. A few examples off the top of my head: simple "dumb" cruise control hasn't lead to more accidents. Parachutes have auto-deploy features if the cord isn't pulled by a certain height. Scuba divers use dive computers that basically eliminate the need to learn dive tables (and beep at you when…

The thing with other activities (diving, flying are great examples) is that when a problem occurs, you generally have minutes to analyze what's happening and decide on a solution. If my dive computer goes on the fritz, I can decide to immediately start an ascent, or go off physical dive table, or make an extra safety stop at say 20 feet just to be sure.

When you're going 45 in a curve driving along PCH, and a sudden fog bank obscures your cameras and LIDAR and the computer says "your controls, good luck!" you have maybe 2 seconds to react, if you're lucky. It might be a lot less.

Humans make really dumb decisions sometimes, but we are also outstandingly capable of reacting to novelty.

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