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California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

nytimes.com

521–530 of 645 posts

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are reasonable ways to protect people from property-tax shocks. Prop 13 is about as dumb a mechanism you could design.

>There are reasonable ways to protect people from property-tax shocks. Such as?

This is the best summary I know

https://taxfoundation.org/property-tax-limitation-regimes-pr...

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#522
post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does one “lose their home” if the value (to resell to others) goes down, but they aren’t moving & still living there?

They're saying that if the value goes up you can have to pay increased property taxes that you now can't afford.

It's really not a bad problem to have.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that’s the case - which I don’t doubt - why are we encouraging home ownership at all? One of the key metrics the article presents is the drop in home ownership. Wouldn’t encouraging renters be a potential solution?

Because home ownership means greater economic stability for the individual or family owning it, and "we" consists of individuals and families?

Economic stability is a necessity for home ownership and is often exhibited by home owners, but home ownership is not a cause nor prerequisite for economic stability. The relationship between the two was muddled in the run up to the last financial crisis- that is, lenders were encouraged to lend to more people to buy houses because it was correlated with economic stability. This is a little like buying someone expensive shoes to make them a better basketball player.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#524
post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to be YIMBY, but I doubt more construction would lead to lower costs of living. When I researched this I couldn't find any strong evidence suggesting that more building would lead to more affordable housing. You would think that more construction would lead to more affordable housing, but it seems like more construction doesn't just increase supply, it also increases demand, which can offset any price effects…

There's absolutely zero evidence of "induced demand" for housing. And all available evidence suggests that 1: SF & CA have huge shortages of homes and 2: Building more is a good solution. Please see this non-exhaustive list of things which all show building more housing leads to housing affordability. * http://cityobservatory.org/another-housing-myth-debunked-nei... * https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/201…

For cities like NYC and SF I think it’s clear there is a ton of induced demand.

If housing prices were cut in half in SF you’d see WAY more people moving here.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#525
post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the clarification. If it's a definition that applies to literally every physical good in a market economy, then it doesn't have much explanatory power to explain why some things are cheap and abundant, and why some things are expensive and scarce.

yea, I mean there have been large periods in human history in which land was not bought and sold. Many indigenous cultures don't have a strong concept of land ownership. In many modern socialist countries (Singapore, china), you cannot "buy land" you can lease it from the government for a long period of time (usually 99 years). In the united states, "education" is a good/service that transverses a weird line between…

Actually, a lot of values can be obtained from other, more general, values. Not everything of course or we'd all agree on everything! But I wish people would do this more often when they make arguments about rights and wrongs. Something like "I agree with X because it's a special case of Y which I hold as an axiomatic value". Instead, they just seemingly randomly decide which side their opinion falls on then try to make up random pot-shots of excuses to defend it.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#526
post #485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Affecting the seller's still creates a delta because the seller is also a buyer of wherever they're going to live next. Causing the new place to have much higher property tax than the existing place makes it harder to leave the existing place. And then fewer people do it, even if they e.g. don't need a place that big anymore.

That seems like a stretch, it doesn't increase the market price or the tax on the new property that the seller is acquiring, if anything it lets the owner save more money so they have more options to buy.

It does increase the tax on the new property that the seller is acquiring, because for a given level of government spending, if the government gets less tax revenue from long-term owners they have to get more from newer owners.

It also increases the minimum price the seller is willing to accept for the property, because they won't sell unless the buyer offers enough to compensate them for the higher tax rate they'll have to pay on the new property. It increases the bid/ask spread on long-held properties, so that more often no transaction takes place at all until e.g. the owner dies and the property is sold in an estate sale for less than the owner would have been willing to accept if they were still alive.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#527
post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I vigorously support more construction in the SF metro area, I think expectations need to be set correctly as to the amount of construction required to actually bring prices down, instead of just slowing their rate of increase. It's a lot . I don't recall all the numbers, but I believe I saw something suggesting that we need to increase the rate of housing starts by a factor of 4 just to stabilize prices. To ac…

This is definitely a fair point. There's also - in my mind, living in a smaller town - the idea that it'd be nice if everyone coordinated to catch up mostly at the same time, so that it's not just Portland or Seattle or Boulder or San Diego or wherever... but everywhere.

The bigger point is that today allowing housing construction is a burden for cities. You hint that it would be good if all cities shared that burden.

This is especially true in California, due to Prop 13.

If we reformed the relevant rules, so cities profited from allowing new housing, I think a lot would change in this area!

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#528

Housing: * European way - build centrally design urban cities, with infrastructure, schools, public transportation, community spaces, recreation/business spaces. * American way - let for-profit developers build luxury houses around enormous google/fb/other tech giant campuses, and let struggling communities to figure out how to live with it... Medical care: * European way - build an efficient medical system which is…

On healthcare, this isn't true simply because of how drastically different approaches are across Europe. There are countries there that have something a lot like ACA, just better implemented (Switzerland). There are countries with true single payer nationalized systems (UK). There are countries where healthcare is run by a bunch of private non-profit coops for most people, but those who want to can opt out into a fully private system (Germany). These all work much better than what US has, but not all of them are paid entirely or even mostly by taxes.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#529
post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demonizing landlords is not the answer. They did not get us into this mess. It's a distraction. Prices are set by the market.

In california, landlords largely did get us into this mess though. Like not on an individual scale, but as an organized political constituency they lobbied for the policies that have caused the problems we're experiencing and they're generally lobbying against the solutions.

It's a distraction in that it may lead to bad intuitions about what to do, like trying to "punish" landlords in some way will somehow make up for something.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#530
post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that if you're going to argue that supply and demand are not real for housing, you'd need to supply some good evidence of your own. There are a lot of ways to build more supply: https://www.sightline.org/2017/09/21/yes-you-can-build-your-... I find the 'Montreal' example the most compelling in that it's fairly "human scale", but tastes vary.

Rental housing has price floor that distorts the market. Once a property diverges from the requirements of housing subsidy programs, it usually gets abandoned. In most places new supply is high end and is making more housing available for people who don’t lack access.

New supply in housing shortage area is expensive, for the same reason old housing is expensive there: THERE IS A HOUSING SHORTAGE!

Therefore, if you say it's bad to build new housing if it will end up being expensive, you're really saying there should be no new housing built during a housing shortage...

I find it's often better to think it terms of number of homes and housed people than in prices. If 100 new apartments are built, it's hard to say what will happen to prices exactly. But it's undeniable that there will be 100 more homes, and 200-300 more people can live indoors in that city, than without the project.

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