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California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

nytimes.com

481–490 of 645 posts

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

BART ridership is currently maxed out in the peak direction at peak hour, and carries triple the design number of passengers. They don’t need to expand, they need to profit from the currently underused directions (eg berkeley to Fremont).

Transit reacts to changes in transportation demand, it doesn't set demand. How do you envision BART would profit from underused directions? Put out ads encouraging people to take these routes for fun? As I said, pointing out that transit systems are at capacity is not a valid reason to block development. Transit systems always try to operate at capacity because excess capacity means suboptimal allocation of resources…

> Transit reacts to changes in transportation demand, it doesn't set demand. How do you envision BART would profit from underused directions? Put out ads encouraging people to take these routes for fun?

BART could encourage commercial development, instead of residential development, on land it owns near transit stations.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#482
post #475
post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're absolutely right. People are rarely self-consciously irrationally opposed to any given proposal to build housing. In theory, it should be possible to address any given rational concern! Too tall? Make it shorter. Not enough public space? Make the area in front of it a parklet! Not enough subsidized housing? More BMR units and a donation to a neighborhood group will solve that one. Doesn't fit with the style or…

Well, I think that pretty much anything is more effective than calling people names. But rhetorically, it’s probably a lot more effective to just be honest about what you want: shared sacrifice for lower rents. It’s cynical to call it YIMBY, because a) it mirrors the name-calling, and b) anyone who is intellectually honest knows that YIMBY really means YIYBY for most people. So stop it. Own that you want something th…

That's a very helpful insight! Thank you for sharing. I appreciate your positivity and genuineness.

In my personal experience, I've often found it to be extremely difficult to sell shared sacrifice to people who are empowered to refuse to share. After all, why can't this building go in some other neighborhood? Away from them? If you're being honest, it probably can. The next neighborhood over will probably have the same question.

Also, SF has the wrinkle that a lot of people see building housing as pushing up rents, making the framing you suggest very difficult on multiple counts. Attempting to discuss this with people seldom goes as well as could be hoped. This belief seems to have become totemic, making it functionally impossible to discuss.

Perhaps you've had different results than I. I sincerely hope so.

I have found name-calling and coherent branding to be pretty effective at providing people a banner to gather under. It doesn't do anything for those it makes into enemies, but it does something for people who might be your allies. When the NIMBYs are already well organized and Californians For Lowering Rent Through Shared Sacrifice isn't, I can see where someone might make that calculation.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#483
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We have the tracks, we have the train... the train just does not go this route on weekends. This is the easy one to fix — when there is demand, they can just run more trains. Much harder is the transbay commute at rush hours. There is almost no spare capacity, and it’s not clear how those extra thousands of people in Lafayette will make it in to SF every morning before we build a second transbay tube for Bart — and…

The problem is they need to create the demand. Anybody who wants to get around and checks transit knows it isn't an option so they find an alternative. If CalTran wants to be useful transit for more than commuters (My understanding as someone not in the area is CalTran runs only a few trips during rush hour - if I'm wrong that invalidates some of my reply...) they need to run more service for a while so people start…

Lots of people take Caltrain to commute, and commute trains are often standing room only.

But almost no one takes Caltrain at non-commute hours.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ahead of most of this, you probably need to remove or heavily adjust Prop 13. The primary problem, as detailed in the article, is that homeowners have every incentive to be against new construction and no incentives to be for it. If property taxes rose appropriately with property values, homeowners would have an interest in maintaining housing prices rather than doing everything they can to keep them rising. There's…

I don't know a single long time home owner that is NIMBY because they want their house's value to rise. They're NIMBY because they want their neighborhood to stay the same. > For example, I've talked to retired folks that have considered leaving the bay due to the increased cost of living. But because they have owned their house for decades + P13, if they bought a _cheaper_ house elsewhere in CA to downsize, they'd b…

I've been wondering about Prop 13 and I've come to the conclusion it's made california into a big ponzi scheme.

Basically, the new arrivals pay for everything. And new taxes added (such as school taxes) follow the same scheme so that long-time residents pay less there too.

That said, the TRUE beneficiaries of prop 13 are corporations anyway.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#485
post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does Prop 13 make it hard to sell your home? It only affects the owners property taxes but not the property buyer's. At the time of purchase, there's no delta to the buyers taxes vs a property that was taxed at a full market rate assessment the whole time.

Affecting the seller's still creates a delta because the seller is also a buyer of wherever they're going to live next. Causing the new place to have much higher property tax than the existing place makes it harder to leave the existing place. And then fewer people do it, even if they e.g. don't need a place that big anymore.

That seems like a stretch, it doesn't increase the market price or the tax on the new property that the seller is acquiring, if anything it lets the owner save more money so they have more options to buy.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GP could likely have replaced "mostly old white people" with "mostly the same demographic", but it doesn't convey the same information, even if you don't assume implied racism as you did. The important thing being conveyed is lack of diversity, not whiteness. In the United States, saying something is "mostly white people" conveys that other ethnic groups are not present for some reason (whether it be them self-select…

To value diversity of ethnicity or race, you must believe there are intrinsic differences between people which are determined by their ethnicity. That's one of the definitions of racism. A non-racist wouldn't be bothered what race their neighbors were just as most people aren't bothered by the color of their carpets. In the candy example, you would believe the color is an important determinant of some quality of the…

> To value diversity of ethnicity or race, you must believe there are intrinsic differences between people which are determined by their ethnicity.

I think that's easily proven false. I value diversity of ethnicity and race because I think it's statistically more likely that it results in diversity of culture, and I think that's the real useful thing to be aiming for.

In the United States "white" isn't a race any more than "black" is. It's a short-hand for a cultural identity that our society foists upon you, and it comes with a mostly shared set of experiences and understanding.

A "black" person (which could be historically from Africa, Asia, South America or elsewhere) will likely face some shared set of experiences, as will a "white" person, or an "asian" person, or a "latino" person. The same could be said for a U.S. citizen or a European.

If you think "white" was used as shorthand for "the largest and most dominant cultural identity in America" as I do, then you think that diversity in that brings different perspectives and cultural norms, and some people find that refreshing and interesting (as well as there being some evidence that it provides many other benefits and detriments to various degrees).

So, do I think skin color is an important determinant of some quality in this discussion? Yes. In the case where you're looking at a mostly homogeneous group based on age and likely cultural identity, I think encouraging differences in both age and that cultural identity are likely to introduce more cultural diversity than some other options, and that's based on sociological and statistical beliefs. You may or may not think that qualifies as racism, but I don't, and part of that is because I don't think the result is based on actual skin color, just skin color in a geographic region (that is, a country with a different cultural and ethnic makeup may not see similar results). That means skin color is little other than a statistical marker for other, more useful attributes in this case.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For clarity the people voting for policies to restrict housing are not the people moving away because they can't afford housing. There's a class of people that own housing that pay very little property tax because they bought years ago and are protected by Prop 13. These people vote to prevent building anything because they benefit both from insane house prices and property tax protection. All the new people live wit…

Fuck Prop 13. It blows my mind how many long time California people don't even realize prop 13 covers many business properties.

For me the individual housing protection is worse than business.

Primarily because the individual housing protection is what causes the incentive problem where people prevent housing from being built.

Companies would benefit from more plentiful inexpensive housing.

My dream bill would be a prop that requires local communities to build X amount of housing (where X is some large number possibly determined in part by the spread between property tax payment and property FMV) every year.

Failure to meet X means that all property owners see a 10% increase in their property tax.

This happens every year with an upper bound on the property tax being the current tax for the FMV of their property.

This is basically impossible to actually pass, but it's what I would do if I was king of Palo Alto, either build the housing or pay the actual cost of your policy.

Maybe one day SB50 will pass - at least that'd be something.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think he means that taxes are indirectly passed to renters in form of a higher rent.

Correct, also in the places that the market does not bear it. If your only concept of renting is in the Bay Area or Brooklyn or some high end captive market, you don't really get that you can't always just raise rent until costs are covered. Most of the country won't bear it so the landlord eats it. I have rentals, I know this first hand.

Real estate is one of the most efficient markets. Landlords all over make approximately the same returns as one another, outside of a handful of places where where people are making (or losing) money from speculation.

What happens when you increase property taxes is that property values go down to compensate; it's less valuable to own when you have to pay more to do it. So in the short term the property tax increase hits whoever owned the property when the rate change was announced. But then it becomes less profitable to own property in that area, so people invest less in building new housing there, or even in maintaining the existing housing. That tends to constrain supply and cause rents to increase until you're back at equilibrium. The long-term equilibrium is based on the relationship between rents and total costs. Property tax is a cost so in the long-term higher property taxes result in higher rents. (This isn't counting the pathological cases where higher property taxes reduce property values and investment and the government responds by further raising property taxes until the locality is in a death spiral. Naturally rents in dying localities tend to go down.)

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#489
In this future, is there nowhere for those of us who just want to some damned trees and nature and quiet and dark where we live? You buy a quiet place where you can see they sky, but it gets expensive so newcomers replace it with what you left originally, so you leave again to a quiet place where you can see the sky, but it gets expensive so newcomers replace it with what you left originally, so this time you wise up and move somewhere with likeminded people who zone it for trees and quiet and dark, but then that gets expensive too, so newcomers rally for zoning reform before tearing it all down again...

Different people value density differently, but apparently my willingness to pay a premium to live somewhere with lower density makes me an evil NIMBY.

Re: California’s housing crisis: how a bureaucrat pushed to build

#490
post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The house that the owner lives in is not an asset. It's a durable consumer good. Wanting your home to appreciate in value forever is like expecting your 20-year-old car to sell for more than its sticker price. It really only works for art installations, created by a collaboration of architect, engineer, and builder, with some living space inside. Framed in these terms, most families do not have any significant assets…

I think it's silly to try to separate the home from the land it sits on, unless you're suggesting that people buy homes with nothing beneath them.

"Do you get to the Cloud District very often? Oh, what am I saying, of course you don't."
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