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Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

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Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#841
post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This whole self driving, fully autonomous thing has become some sort of strange faux-religion. It's followers see no other possible solution as acceptable. Instead of putting our heads together to make really good driver assistance technologies and being satisfied, the darn thing needs to also drive itself everywhere otherwise we're leaving something on the table! Untill we have zero deaths, we cannot stop demanding…

> This whole self driving, fully autonomous thing has become some sort of strange faux-religion. What really bugs me, as someone working in consulting as a hands-on backend developer with a previous background in technical consulting at an accounting Big4 (student job), is the insane amount of PR, politics and marketing talk by people who have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA what they are talking about. I witnessed politicians an…

Five years ago or so, video from "DARPA robot challenge" type events would easily give the lie to "superb autonomy" claims. I just found this[1] more impressive, but at its 20x playback speed. I imagine that playback at 1x could still serve as a reality-check and counterexample.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6-heLIg85o

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#842
post #818

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This whole self driving, fully autonomous thing has become some sort of strange faux-religion. What really bugs me, as someone working in consulting as a hands-on backend developer with a previous background in technical consulting at an accounting Big4 (student job), is the insane amount of PR, politics and marketing talk by people who have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA what they are talking about. I witnessed politicians an…

Sorry for the out of the blue unrelated reply, but I am currently stuck working as a technical consultant at one of the Big4, how did you make your way out of this? I feel like I am learning about antiquated technologies, and that pivoting to a software engineering job more aligned with my interests, skills, and sanity feels harder every day. Even something like you describe you are doing now sounds much better than…

Some folks I know joined code camps/ lambda school like programs and got out. Alrernatively, if you work on clients, easy way is to accept a full time job at any of your clients you enjoy/tolerate working.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#843
post #785

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The NTSB report information is public, from the NTSB docket, https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Pages/HWY18FH011.aspx , he wasn't traveling at 71 miles per hour. "At 3 seconds prior to the crash and up to the time of impact with the crash attenuator, the Tesla’s speed increased from 62 to 70.8 mph, with no precrash braking or evasive steering movement detected." The autopilot accelerated into the barrier.

Could that be because it effectively registered a lane change by the car it was following and was accelerating to the requested speed? Or are you suggesting that the Autopilot accelerated beyond the top speed set by the driver?

You are right "traffic-aware cruise control speed was set to 75 mph". It was traveling slower due to traffic.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#844
post #574
post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SAE Level 5 is completely transformative, it will utterly change the market and the use of cars. Once you can conveniently call up an automated Uber the need, at least in cities, to buy your own car will effectively vanish. This is Uber's endgame - get humans out of the loop. As long as cars still need human drivers this cost savings can't be realized. > Forget better braking systems that apply themselves automatical…

Why is it transformative? Especially in cities. You have Ubers/taxis/private cars/etc. today. So you hypothetically cut the costs (maybe) in half of hailing a ride. Which is speculative. Does that really transform your use of transportation? I doubt it would change my use of cars one bit.

There are tipping points. If always taking the taxi everywhere is more expensive than the cost of owning your own car, then most people drive their own cars and taxis are for special occasions. If after a tech change always taking the taxi everywhere is less expensive than the cost of owning your own car, then most people would do just that, and only a minority would own a car.

A switch from 20/80 to 80/20 is transformative, changes the default attitude and has further societal effects.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#845
post #616
post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SAE Level 5 is completely transformative, it will utterly change the market and the use of cars. Once you can conveniently call up an automated Uber the need, at least in cities, to buy your own car will effectively vanish. This is Uber's endgame - get humans out of the loop. As long as cars still need human drivers this cost savings can't be realized. > Forget better braking systems that apply themselves automatical…

> Once you can conveniently call up an automated Uber the need, at least in cities, to buy your own car will effectively vanish. I doubt it. One of the biggest obstacles you have is families and the need for infant car and child booster seats. Car ownership is here to stay for a while.

What's the problem with families? My local Uber-equivalent will have and provide child booster seats if requested (as did many but not all "pre-app" taxi service providers), and for infants there are also a bunch of solutions depending on their age; one of them (perhaps not the best, just anecdotal example) is the combo carriage+car seat, where I can put the "carriage wheels" in the trunk and put the baby in the car safely without even waking them up, crucially, it can be done in any car or taxi, and I've taken taxi rides with a baby this way.

It does require some planning (and some support from the service providers) but it's definitely a solvable issue, if the people would want to do that, then it can be arranged.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#846
post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Marginal Revolution just highlighted an interesting detailed look at US car (driver) fatalities. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/02/wh... >> After accounting for freeways (18%) and intersections and junctions (20%), we’re still left with more than 60% of drivers killed in automotive accidents left accounted for. >> It turns out that drivers killed on rural roads with 2 lanes (i.e., one lane in…

You’re committing a logical fallacy here. Avoiding driving on those roads is only a mitigation if the accident rate is highly disproportional to their usage. If half of all driving occurs on highways and half doesn’t, and half of all accidents are on highways, then avoiding highways will have absolutely no effect on your accident rate. It’s possible that driving on these roads leads to a disproportionate accident rat…

> You’re committing a logical fallacy here. Avoiding driving on those roads is only a mitigation if the accident rate is highly disproportional to their usage.

You're right in spirit. I actually addressed this in passing in the comment "an incredibly simple mitigation you're probably already doing". Rural roads carry less traffic than non-rural roads for the very obvious reason that most people don't live in rural areas. The disparity is documented: https://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/traffic-safety-...

We can also note that freeway vehicle-miles (excluded from this rural roads statistic) are going to be an inflated share of driven miles precisely because the purpose of the freeway is to cover long distances.

But as to the specific number I provided ("more than a third"), you're on target in accusing me of a fallacy.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#847
post #574

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it transformative? Especially in cities. You have Ubers/taxis/private cars/etc. today. So you hypothetically cut the costs (maybe) in half of hailing a ride. Which is speculative. Does that really transform your use of transportation? I doubt it would change my use of cars one bit.

There are tipping points. If always taking the taxi everywhere is more expensive than the cost of owning your own car, then most people drive their own cars and taxis are for special occasions. If after a tech change always taking the taxi everywhere is less expensive than the cost of owning your own car, then most people would do just that, and only a minority would own a car. A switch from 20/80 to 80/20 is transfo…

> has further societal effects

Like parking or more specifically - not parking. Here's an example development: "And parking clocks in at a full 29% of the developed land here, taking up twice as much total space as the actual buildings."

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2020/2/6/movie-set-urban...

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#848

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has been my takeaway from the whole situation. It says something about the exactly how safe this stuff needs to be for it to be considered reliable.

My impression is that it's already more reliable than humans. Not perfect, but it probably averages better than all the crashes humans are causing.

> it's already more reliable than humans

Only when comparing aggregate statistics. Not all humans are equally (un)safe drivers; insurance rates vary based on driving record for good reason.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#849

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is zero proof that autonomous vehicles can be safer than human drivers. There’s lots of proof that autonomous vehicles are technically possible, but the leap to “definitely better than humans” is a very big one and it’s really being taken on faith right now. In contrast, treating disease directly affect the incidence of that disease.

Auto breaking technology deployed in japan has already started affecting insurance because so many vehicles have it that the accident rate has fallen significantly. This is one facet of autonomous decision making.

I mean fully autonomous AKA Level 5. I agree that there is plenty of proof that driver-assist safety technologies can prevent accidents.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#850
post #776

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s the part I don’t get either. The only thing I can come up with is he wasn’t paying attention to the drive up to that point and didn’t notice he was in a problem area. I have a Tesla and there are definitely problem areas. You learn them fairly quickly when you are taking the same route all the time and you’re trained to either turn off autopilot or at least be alert when going through those areas. Or maybe you…

> Or maybe you test it out with your hands on the wheel ready to take over to see if they fixed the bug. Isn't holding the wheel always required now in Tesla's autopilot?

You have some flexibility to take your hands off the wheel for a bit. It nags you after a little bit and then gives you some more time to hold the wheel. If you keep your hands off for too long it will disengage and you can’t put autopilot back on until you put the car in park. You can satisfy the sensors by softly resting one hand on the wheel.
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