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Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

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Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#671

Post by ghaff »

syshum wrote: post #642
aguyfromnb wrote: post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The standard should be fewer deaths than human-operated (or even auto assisted ) cars. How do we go about testing this? By tallying up autonomous deaths until there are fewer per year than human drivers? > We need to reduce those as much as possible but to demand ZERO before the technology can be used is just unrealistic Human driver skill varies immensely by person. The idea that anyone who is (or even considers t…

Everyone thinks they are "good" drivers, even the person weaving in out of lanes, even the person that has a car that has 500 dents all over it from previous impacts that were all caused by "other bad drivers not me" What will happen is human-controlled cars will become $$$$$$ to ensure once Level 5 is better than humans. At that point, if you can afford it sure you can reject it but get out your wallet

Why should insurance be more than today? Unless you're arguing that safety systems in other vehicles make you driving one without those systems more dangerous.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#672

Post by MereInterest »

amflare wrote: post #660
wbl wrote: post #650

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern cars are deadly to pedestrians, especially SUVs.

Most 1-3 ton objects moving with any sort of momentum are. What is your point?

70% more likely to be killed when struck by a larger car [1]. With a higher front face, pedestrians are struck in the chest, rather than the legs. Turns out, broken legs are a lot more survivable than damage to internal organs.

[1]: https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/oct/07/a-deadly-prob...

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#673

Post by smallcharleston »

neuronic wrote: post #441
Alupis wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This whole self driving, fully autonomous thing has become some sort of strange faux-religion. It's followers see no other possible solution as acceptable. Instead of putting our heads together to make really good driver assistance technologies and being satisfied, the darn thing needs to also drive itself everywhere otherwise we're leaving something on the table! Untill we have zero deaths, we cannot stop demanding…

> This whole self driving, fully autonomous thing has become some sort of strange faux-religion. What really bugs me, as someone working in consulting as a hands-on backend developer with a previous background in technical consulting at an accounting Big4 (student job), is the insane amount of PR, politics and marketing talk by people who have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA what they are talking about. I witnessed politicians an…

I wonder why the self-driving car hype folks don’t simply lobby to make more trains.

(I mean the ones who have been successfully marketed to here, not the marketers).

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#674

Post by jschwartzi »

ghaff wrote: post #638
vlozko wrote: post #616

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Once you can conveniently call up an automated Uber the need, at least in cities, to buy your own car will effectively vanish. I doubt it. One of the biggest obstacles you have is families and the need for infant car and child booster seats. Car ownership is here to stay for a while.

I suspect that most of the people ready to ditch car ownership don't actually use cars much. In addition to the families/kids gear, a lot of people I know have their cars/trucks setup for various types of outdoor activities such as carrying canoes.

How likely is Uber to kit their entire fleet out with snow tires in winter? That’s an easy example of something a lot of private owners do for safety during the winter. I did that so I could drive to snowed-in trailheads. What about chaining up? And how will the self-driving cab handle getting stuck in the snow? Will there be sand available?

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#675

Post by ezzzzz »

emiliobumachar wrote: post #508
Alupis wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This whole self driving, fully autonomous thing has become some sort of strange faux-religion. It's followers see no other possible solution as acceptable. Instead of putting our heads together to make really good driver assistance technologies and being satisfied, the darn thing needs to also drive itself everywhere otherwise we're leaving something on the table! Untill we have zero deaths, we cannot stop demanding…

Would Tesla be a heretic in this religion you just modeled? They're all about boring driver assistance, and acceptance of a low number of deaths. They don't even try Level 5 for now, and get a lot of criticism for requiring that the human pays attention at all times.

Even my engineer colleagues still operate under the impression that Tesla Autopilot == Self-Driving. One of the dangerous things, to me, is a combination of PR and user experience. The PR/advertisement creates the impression (directly or indirectly) that a Tesla drives itself, and the technology enforces the sentiment by working well 'most' of the time. This article just enforces this. The driver killed was an engineer, who noted that Tesla's auto-pilot would veer into danger (in the spot he was killed), filed a report/complaint, yet still, had enough confidence in the tech to read a quick text.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#676

Post by johnjungles »

maxaf wrote: post #452
johnjungles wrote: post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an oversimplification of Tesla’s technology, and they don’t use Tensorflow, other people’s pre-trained models, and computer vision isn’t the only thing that is a part of driving, they use radar and ultrasonics as well. I try new technologies all the time to get a sense of where it is in coming to fruition. I think what you mean is, you’re more skeptical of claims. The same way you claim you can’t learn anythi…

> You should at least test drive it under controlled conditions [...] Who cares what the car does under controlled conditions? I'm sure the manufacturer did exactly that in their testing. Even when they test on public roads, there's a hands-off safety driver behind the wheel, who is paid to be on the lookout and sufficiently alert to take over in case of an unexpected excursion. (Unless the self-driving car under tes…

My comment about controlled conditions was about making you feel comfortable and give yourself a safe to try it out to get an understanding of when it. It wasn’t to say to believe in self driving, I agree it’s a long way out. Understanding the technology is more important than dismissing it altogether is what I was simply trying to point out. I think you can at the least try it, understand it, then have an opinion about it.. (which I respect). There seems to be a lot of negative comments from people who have never sat in a Tesla or have gone through a test drive.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#677

Post by jschwartzi »

lovehashbrowns wrote: post #652
snowwrestler wrote: post #605

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is zero proof that autonomous vehicles can be safer than human drivers. There’s lots of proof that autonomous vehicles are technically possible, but the leap to “definitely better than humans” is a very big one and it’s really being taken on faith right now. In contrast, treating disease directly affect the incidence of that disease.

There's "proof" that computers can be safer than humans. Faster reaction times, don't get tired, don't lose focus, can perform computations much faster than humans.

All that goes to show that a computer can make mistakes much faster than humans. You didn’t say anything about how that guarantees the computer only makes safe decisions.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#678

Post by gdulli »

contravariant wrote: post #625
syshum wrote: post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually one of the biggest obstacles to Level 5 is expectation of Zero Deaths for Level 5 autonomous operations. The standard should be fewer deaths than human-operated (or even auto assisted ) cars. When you have thousands of machines traveling in close proximity at speeds exceeding 50mph there will be deaths, this is unavoidable. We need to reduce those as much as possible but to demand ZERO before the technology…

One of the problems with merely fewer deaths than a human operated car is that technology tends to fail in 'silly' ways. Also at the very least an self-driving car should reach the level of a good driver, having self-driving cars cause as many deaths as drunk or inattentive drivers do nowadays isn't defensible. Especially since there's usually no explanation and nobody to hold accountable.

> technology tends to fail in 'silly' ways

And a scenario we can easily imagine is that a buggy update goes out to the whole fleet overnight that starts killing people all over the place.

The common case of accidents being on par with manual human driving goes out the window until the software is rolled back and for 12 hours, 24 hours, however long, we get a number of deaths that far outpaces what humans are capable of. The "worst case" would never apply to a manual/human population as a whole, at once.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#679

Post by ghaff »

jschwartzi wrote: post #674
ghaff wrote: post #638

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect that most of the people ready to ditch car ownership don't actually use cars much. In addition to the families/kids gear, a lot of people I know have their cars/trucks setup for various types of outdoor activities such as carrying canoes.

How likely is Uber to kit their entire fleet out with snow tires in winter? That’s an easy example of something a lot of private owners do for safety during the winter. I did that so I could drive to snowed-in trailheads. What about chaining up? And how will the self-driving cab handle getting stuck in the snow? Will there be sand available?

Even without doing any real off-roading, it's one of the things I always feel a bit uncomfortable with when I take rentals to relatively remote areas out West. If it were my own vehicle I'd carry a lot more gear to handle potential problems than I realistically can carry on a plane and throw in a rental.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#680

Post by johnjungles »

neotek wrote: post #486
johnjungles wrote: post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an oversimplification of Tesla’s technology, and they don’t use Tensorflow, other people’s pre-trained models, and computer vision isn’t the only thing that is a part of driving, they use radar and ultrasonics as well. I try new technologies all the time to get a sense of where it is in coming to fruition. I think what you mean is, you’re more skeptical of claims. The same way you claim you can’t learn anythi…

I've driven a Model 3 over the course of a few days, maybe a handful of hours in total, and based on that experience I absolutely do not feel comfortable using Auto Pilot and would not buy a Tesla at the moment. It's far more janky and susceptible to confusion than Tesla makes it out to be in its marketing, and the reality is that people simply do not pay as much attention as they are required to when using it becaus…

Thank you for having actually tried it then having a real opinion about it.

I have a Tesla, I usually use autopilot for highway traffic only, summon it like a valet to where I am in my parking lot, and not have to idle in hot and cold weather.

I agree, I wouldn’t use it for local roads and unclear highways, but isn’t this what they tell you? I don’t think they ever tell you that it’s full self driving right now. Also, I’ve experienced it being janky but over time it’s improved dramatically.

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