Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot • Hacker News Board

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#451

Post by dntbnmpls » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 10:32 AM UTC

Erlich_Bachman wrote: post #399

bananabreakfast wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autopilot is an appropriate term, taken from aviation. And no one calls it full self driving since that hasn't been released yet.

Seriously, what is people's problem with that word? Tesla actively explains how this works currently (both in person and also in bold font on their website) when anyone buys a car. There is no owner of this car that thinks that it has full self-driving capability. It is literally a non-existent problem.

> Seriously, what is people's problem with that word?

You see this with every thread about tsla. Some grasp at any nonsense to attack it. I used to think the haters were financially motivated "investors" shorting tsla and I'm sure it was true in the past. But now, I'm thinking it's just people who dislike elon for some reason since they also attack musk/SpaceX in spacex threads. I mean "criminally responsible" for the autopilot name? It's hard to take them seriously at this point.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#452

Post by maxaf » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 10:32 AM UTC

johnjungles wrote: post #442

fxtentacle wrote: post #187

I avoid new technology, exactly because I'm an engineer. I wonder if that is just me, but when new technology is introduced and hyped, I usually take a quick look at implementations, research, and talks just to get an idea of what the state of the art really is like. As a result, I have become the late adopter among my group of friends because the first iteration of any new technology usually just isn't worth the iss…

This is an oversimplification of Tesla’s technology, and they don’t use Tensorflow, other people’s pre-trained models, and computer vision isn’t the only thing that is a part of driving, they use radar and ultrasonics as well. I try new technologies all the time to get a sense of where it is in coming to fruition. I think what you mean is, you’re more skeptical of claims. The same way you claim you can’t learn anythi…

> You should at least test drive it under controlled conditions [...]

Who cares what the car does under controlled conditions? I'm sure the manufacturer did exactly that in their testing. Even when they test on public roads, there's a hands-off safety driver behind the wheel, who is paid to be on the lookout and sufficiently alert to take over in case of an unexpected excursion. (Unless the self-driving car under test is from Uber, in which case the safety driver simply watches video on their phone. Too soon?)

This is nowhere near how these cars are used in the real world. The real world is not a set of "controlled conditions", so any comfort one builds up in such a situation is merely a false sense of security.

> [...] where you feel comfortable before closing yourself off completely.

So, here's the thing: I'm comfortable driving myself. I don't get distracted, I use good judgment, I consistently prioritize the safety of my vehicle's occupants over everything else. I know exactly how flawed self-driving cars are, and how far behind the curve of my driving skill they will remain within my lifespan. That's the sum total of everything I need to know, and no amount of "controlled conditions" demos will change my mind.

P.S.: If you're from the future and you're reading this because I got mowed down by a self-driving car: ha ha! Joke's on me.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#453

Post by azernik » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 10:32 AM UTC

coldtea wrote: post #432

sam_goody wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO, flying cars will eventually arrive. Perhaps it will be limited to specific "lanes" (it will be much more palatable to the masses if it must (like cars) keep to a limited area). But it will not need to recognize pedestrians and bikers and human driven cars, and some standard will be introduced to allow all them self driving cars to talk to each other. At that point, Level 5 will be much easier, even obvious. All…

> IMO, flying cars will eventually arrive. Not so sure. I saw specific designs hyped in the 80s and 90s, and know of efforts hyped in the 70s as well. The reason they always fail is because constraints of designing a car to go on land and the constraints of designing a flying machine are different. You can sorta kinda build something that does both, and people have, time and again, but it will be good at neither of t…

Agreed on flying cars, but I wanted to point out a glaring inaccuracy in the opening that undercuts the author's broader argument:

"By 2000 or so that curve had flattened out in the usual way as PV cells became a mature technology, and almost two decades of further experience with them has sorted out what they can do and what they can’t."

In fact, PV prices have dropped DRAMATICALLY since 2000 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03014... looks at the different trends 1986-2001 and 2001-2012), as have the prices/performance of the energy storage systems needed to make them practical.

I agree that it's not a silver bullet that will solve the fossil fuel crisis all on its own (at least not in time), but it is in line with the broader improvement in renewable costs and efficiency.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#454

Post by arethuza » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 10:32 AM UTC

krzat wrote: post #428

sam_goody wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO, flying cars will eventually arrive. Perhaps it will be limited to specific "lanes" (it will be much more palatable to the masses if it must (like cars) keep to a limited area). But it will not need to recognize pedestrians and bikers and human driven cars, and some standard will be introduced to allow all them self driving cars to talk to each other. At that point, Level 5 will be much easier, even obvious. All…

I wonder if it's possible to solve noise problem with flying cars. Maybe use active noise cancellation at the source? No idea if it's even theoretically possible, but would be neat.

Aren't flying cars going to be much noisier than surface cars?

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#455

Post by CPLX » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 10:36 AM UTC

thaumasiotes wrote: post #396

notahacker wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gross human fatal accident rate is ~7 accidents per billion miles in the US, including fatalities caused by incompetent or irresponsible drivers, and substantially lower in Europe. But humans drive a lot of miles Based on Tesla's safety report, 'more than 1 billion' miles have been driven using autopilot. Given the small data sample and the fatalities already attributed to autopilot, I think we're some way from p…

Marginal Revolution just highlighted an interesting detailed look at US car (driver) fatalities. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/02/wh... >> After accounting for freeways (18%) and intersections and junctions (20%), we’re still left with more than 60% of drivers killed in automotive accidents left accounted for. >> It turns out that drivers killed on rural roads with 2 lanes (i.e., one lane in…

You’re committing a logical fallacy here. Avoiding driving on those roads is only a mitigation if the accident rate is highly disproportional to their usage.

If half of all driving occurs on highways and half doesn’t, and half of all accidents are on highways, then avoiding highways will have absolutely no effect on your accident rate.

It’s possible that driving on these roads leads to a disproportionate accident rate, but you haven’t actually said that.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#456

Post by cjhopman » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 10:37 AM UTC

s_y_n_t_a_x wrote: post #288

js2 wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most drivers aren't pilots. They don't know what autopilot actually does. They expect it to drive the car for them, and they probably think autopilot does the same on planes. It was a mistake for Tesla to borrow the term.

You're purely speculating on people's knowledge: > They don't know > They expect > they probably think The alternative is some people are terrible and there will always be people that abuse nice things on purpose. They know what they are doing, that's why they are trying to trick the warning systems. These are the same people on the phones and merging without looking in normal cars. All of that is speculation, but im…

There's no need to speculate.

IIHS did a survey of 2000 people and a driver assistance system named "Autopilot" received the most responses that overestimated the system's capabilities. For example, "Nearly half — 48% — thought it would be safe to take hands off the steering wheel when using the system." In general, about 50% more people overestimated the capabilities of Autopilot compared to the names used by industry leaders (ex. SuperCruise, ProPilot Assist). Other things users were more likely to think they could do with "AutoPilot" included texting and watching a video.

See https://www.iihs.org/news/detail/new-studies-highlight-drive...

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#457

Post by gertrunde » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 10:37 AM UTC

Erlich_Bachman wrote: post #406

hvidgaard wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That squarely puts Autopilot in the "Driver Aid" category. That is fine, just don't go telling people that it can drive unassisted.

> just don't go telling people that it can drive unassisted. No one does. Literally no one. No owner, not Tesla themselves, not their website, not their sellers. Why do people keep bringing this up. Everybody knows it is not full self-driving, yes we all know, yes and? Where does this zealotry come from?

Unfortunately, it's probably down to the choice of name "Autopilot", that leads folk to make assumptions.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#458

Post by cjhopman » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 10:39 AM UTC

bananabreakfast wrote: post #255

salimmadjd wrote: post #12

This is sad and tragic. I remember going with a friend on a Tesla test drive. He was eager to try the Autopilot system. And within a few minutes we got freaked out with what seem to us as unpredictable action and we turned it off. I think the engineer should have never relied on it. Especially if he had concerns with the system. At the same time, "Autopilot" is misleading and Tesla does own responsibility here. Even…

"Autopilot" is not misleading. You just don't know what autopilot means. Autopilot on planes does not mean the plane is self-flying and the pilot doesn't have to pay attention anymore to take over at a moment's notice. Why would you think it's suddenly different in a car?

Speak for yourself. In general, "Autopilot" is misleading. There's no need to just guess about how people interpret it, we know how they do. See https://www.iihs.org/news/detail/new-studies-highlight-drive...

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#459

Post by gertrunde » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 10:40 AM UTC

Erlich_Bachman wrote: post #399

bananabreakfast wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autopilot is an appropriate term, taken from aviation. And no one calls it full self driving since that hasn't been released yet.

Seriously, what is people's problem with that word? Tesla actively explains how this works currently (both in person and also in bold font on their website) when anyone buys a car. There is no owner of this car that thinks that it has full self-driving capability. It is literally a non-existent problem.

While that is my view as well, the behaviour of some Tesla drivers indicates that their view is different, and they use the autopilot in a different manner, which is a problem.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#460

Post by tim333 » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 10:41 AM UTC

neuronic wrote: post #441

Alupis wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This whole self driving, fully autonomous thing has become some sort of strange faux-religion. It's followers see no other possible solution as acceptable. Instead of putting our heads together to make really good driver assistance technologies and being satisfied, the darn thing needs to also drive itself everywhere otherwise we're leaving something on the table! Untill we have zero deaths, we cannot stop demanding…

> This whole self driving, fully autonomous thing has become some sort of strange faux-religion. What really bugs me, as someone working in consulting as a hands-on backend developer with a previous background in technical consulting at an accounting Big4 (student job), is the insane amount of PR, politics and marketing talk by people who have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA what they are talking about. I witnessed politicians an…

Yeah but speaking as someone kinda on the other side there are things like this 'actual Level 4' delivering stuff for real in Wuhan https://kr-asia.com/jd-com-uses-l4-autonomous-driving-soluti...

Fair enough it's not very good - that one just went 600m - but it's hard to argue it won't exist for decades when it exists now.

And historically going form sorta works but is rubbish in info tech eg. early cellphones, internet and so on - to works well doesn't seem to take that long. Five to ten years perhaps typically.