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Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#141

Post by remote_phone »

eyegor wrote: post #126
viraptor wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you got a link for the 24 days? The best I could find is that we're totally guessing things at this point. CDC says: > CDC believes at this time that symptoms of 2019-nCoV may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 after exposure. This is based on what has been seen previously as the incubation period of MERS viruses.

Apologies, I'm not sure if I misremembered, misattributed, or if that was an actual previous estimate from WHO. Everything I can find now seems to be around 14 days, with the Japanese govt using 16 as a lower bound for the cruise ship. I swear WHO was publishing 24 in a sitrep last week, maybe I just haven't found it yet. From the WHO Q&A page, > Current estimates of the incubation period range from 1-12.5 days with…

WHO never reported a 24 day incubation period.

There was a paper that talked about 24 days but that was a single patient and the more likely scenario is that the person was wrong about the timing or got infected at a later time period.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#142

Post by ars »

Fomite wrote: post #92
jerf wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you do find yourself or someone you love infected with corvids, I can, if nothing else, guarantee a very high karma HN post for you if nothing else. HN loves corvids.

Mostly I don't want people blaming corvids for this. They've already got enough trouble with West Nile.

I suspect that anyone who knows the scientific term "corvid" would know enough not to be confused.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#144

Post by samatman »

kragen wrote: post #129
bdcravens wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For purposes of discussion, I think they consider 102 years outside the range of “modern times”

Really? Early modern Britain is roughly the 16th to 18th century. Postmodernism and Other Essays was published in 1926. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_era is 1500 CE and later. If they intended to refer to such a nonstandard definition, don't you think they'd have been explicit about it rather than leaving readers to argue about it? Either they meant specifically that pandemic or they were just bullshitting w…

Alternately, when they said "worst flu season in modern times", they said it specifically to exclude the Spanish Flu.

It's not a well-defined phrase, I think this is the more likely interpretation.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#145

Post by dghughes »

>But there is some evidence — and we’re working on quantifying it — that coronaviruses do transmit less efficiently in the warmer weather. So it’s possible that we will get some help from that, but I don’t think that will solve the problem, as evidenced by the fact that there’s transmission in Singapore, on the equator.

The temperature of a human body is 37ºC it's odd a virus would be incapacitated or slowed by "warmer" weather. I know to kill viruses a fever is what our bodies use along with the immune system. And I know this is referring to it outside a body but it seems odd. I would have expected warm, moist weather to make transmission easier like an incubator.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#146

Post by inferiorhuman »

robjan wrote: post #135
mrfusion wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone could do a study of schools with broken ACs. That might be an easy way to study it.

I don't think a school would operate with broken AC

At least in the US plenty of schools in hot climates do not have A/C.

https://www.the74million.org/article/exclusive-too-hot-to-le...

Even those that do have A/C don't cancel class when it breaks.

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/education/2019/09/11...

The real takeaway from the 74 Million piece is that information about HVAC in American schools is difficult to come by. It would certainly be interesting to look at COVID-19 in schools vis-a-vis A/C, but good luck prying information from the school districts about either infections or air conditioning. Perhaps it would be easier in a tropical country like SG where A/C is more of a necessity than a luxury.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#147

Post by foota »

wtvanhest wrote: post #103
kk58 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you recommend a good source to learn more about how options trading works in real life? Id like to know how you guys generate trading ideas, come up with bet size, study market sentiments etc

I'm going to jump in here. Trading options is extremely risky and a lot of people teaching it, teach it because doing it is normally not profitable and they have already lost their money. Unless you have some huge edge, which no one does, options are the last place to spend your time and blow your money.

There's an article I read a few years ago talking about the possible outcomes from startup equity, using the analogy of a 99 sided die.

It's something like:

1-50: nothing

51-70: a little

70-90: what you would get from a FAANG

90-99: millionaire

100: you're a billionaire

And then goes on to note that there is no 100 on a 99 sided die, seems like options are similar :) I have no belief in my ability to beat the market and treat them like a fun thing to spend some money on, not like an investment.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#148

Post by AnotherGoodName »

dghughes wrote: post #145

>But there is some evidence — and we’re working on quantifying it — that coronaviruses do transmit less efficiently in the warmer weather. So it’s possible that we will get some help from that, but I don’t think that will solve the problem, as evidenced by the fact that there’s transmission in Singapore, on the equator. The temperature of a human body is 37ºC it's odd a virus would be incapacitated or slowed by "warm…

Viruses don't survive at all in open air due to uv. They need some protection, usually in the form of a water droplet. If that evaporates sunlight will kill it.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#149

Post by mandelbrotwurst »

crazygringo wrote: post #114
teeray wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Despite that, I think it’s too late to rename this virus. People have called it “coronavirus” for weeks now and the name will likely stick, correct or not.

What's super-weird in all that coronaviruses are already an entire class of viruses that are the second most popular cause of the common cold , behind rhinoviruses: > "The common cold is a viral infection of the upper respiratory tract. The most commonly implicated virus is a rhinovirus (30–80%), a type of picornavirus with 99 known serotypes. Other commonly implicated viruses include human coronavirus (≈ 15%), influ…

Well, sure, except for the fact that we all know what soup is and a miniscule fraction of us had ever heard the word coronavirus a month ago.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#150

Post by JohnJamesRambo »

dghughes wrote: post #145

>But there is some evidence — and we’re working on quantifying it — that coronaviruses do transmit less efficiently in the warmer weather. So it’s possible that we will get some help from that, but I don’t think that will solve the problem, as evidenced by the fact that there’s transmission in Singapore, on the equator. The temperature of a human body is 37ºC it's odd a virus would be incapacitated or slowed by "warm…

Viruses in general are propagated more efficiently in cooler drier conditions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season

The causes section lists many potential explanations.

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