Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

Post by jshaqaw » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 2:12 AM UTC

dcolkitt wrote: post #51

pjkundert wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Won’t help, if response is infinite QE and monetization of government debt: Dow 1,000,000, here we come! I was thinking deep out of the money gold calls...

QE and monetary stimulus is primarily effective at counteracting demand shocks. For example productive capacity, like empty storefront or unemployed workers, sits unused because liquidity has dried up. A worldwide pandemic would primarily exert its economic effect through supply shocks. The productive capacity of the economy genuinely shrinks. Stores can't open during a quarantine. Sick workers can't show up at the o…

Post by GuiA » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 2:18 AM UTC

thom wrote: post #43

devit wrote: post #20

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

If you can put aside morals for a moment, you could make a killing just buying and selling face masks for the next few months.

Post by kk58 » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 2:20 AM UTC

totalZero wrote: post #61

foota wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't worry, it wasn't anything I wasn't okay losing :)

Depending on your strike and maturity, you may not lose anything. If the entire market sells off hard, correlation will go to 1 in the slide. Index options tend to price in some expectation of this (it's called "correlation skew") for downside options. So you'll make money on three things in a slide: * delta, ie the slide itself, * vega, ie the increased expectation of volatility for the remaining duration of the opt…

Post by matt_the_bass » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 2:29 AM UTC

Xamayon wrote: post #81

Zenst wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That would be the Housing Market. However, the biggest impact may very well be the reaction in the public towards this and that in itself would cause more avenues of betting. Like facemask filters, only so many get made, so whatever companies make that will see a share price increase, if…

The problem with face mask filter stocks (like 3m) in this case seems to be that while demand has hugely increased, ability to deliver has actually gone down. The supply is constrained by just in time delivery/minimal stockpiling, and the fact that 99% of them are made in china which has basically shut down all nonessential factories. 3m also re-brands many chinese mfg's face masks/filters, and the local chinese dema…

Post by mrfusion » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 2:32 AM UTC

gniv wrote: post #58

Fomite wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A couple notes on this: - Right now, there's some ongoing research about R0 relative to humidity, and it's not promising. This includes Singapore, but it should also be noted that Singapore has an amazing public health system that will confound using it as an example in both directions. - Having written a review on the seasonality of influenza, the fact of the matter is we have very little notion of why it's seasonal…

> Having written a review on the seasonality of influenza Is one of the theories lack of Vitamin D?