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A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

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Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#191
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Even"? China has never been a space exploration powerhouse.

They are in the process of becoming one, and they have a bit more focus than the US.

They do develop but they are on the spacefaring level of 1969 USSR at the moment. Still an enormous way to catch up.

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#192
> A moon landing in 2024 would mean a triumph during the last year of President Trump's second term, if he gets reelected in November.

Yeah, sounds just like Trump to rush this program (and endanger lives while doing it) just so he can bask in its (hopeful) success...

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#193
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to mention SLS which is just nonsense at this point. As well as the numerous delays on the demo missions to the ISS. This feels to me like an ultimatum to NASA... move the ball forward or get out of the game. I get the sense there is real fear we could lose the idea of ‘space’ if we don’t start showing some progress. As it stands now there isn’t a platform for the moon and there’s not going to be a platform by 20…

NASA is going to end up being the label on the shipping crate. They don't have a funding model sufficiently detached from political actors trying to sell the sizzle and uninterested in somebody else's steak.

They seem competent to me at preventing disastrous mishaps and making discoveries past Moon/Mars colonizations

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#194

No chance. This isn't the 1950s. We don't just throw people atop rockets anymore. These are vehicles, aircraft. There is absolutely no way any of the current crop of space vehicles could be made ready for a trip to the moon anytime before 2024. Going beyond low orbit, away from the sub-45min return time, is something we haven't done in generations. The craft need to be tested, repeatedly. Each test flight then has to…

even the Russian rocket thrusting nozzle tech that NASA dusted off to use was several years of integrated testing before a full booster test.

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#196
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>almost anything a human being can do, a robotic probe can do far cheaper ... and far more inefficiently. I can't find the article right now, but a while back there was a submission on here which argued that sending robots into space instead of humans is a bit of a fallacy. Because the state of robotics and their capabilities is far from what could be achieved by sending a human. There were comparisons like the Apoll…

You are right but it's comparing apples to oranges. If you compared missions of comparable weight you would find that capability of robotic missions increased many times over current missions, reason is that any human mission would be much more massive than current unmanned missions. This is especially true for long range manned missions where crew needs food, water, shielding and space to survive long term in space,…

I'm not sure what the net tonnage of robot missions we've sent to mars to date is but that level of knowledge we've acquired is on the same order as what we'd get from a couple humans spending a week there with a bunch of tools and scientific instruments. Humans ability to improvise lets us quickly identify what is of interest and study it saving us from having to send multiple iterations of robots.

For any given fixed distance (e.g. mars) at some point there's a crossover where sending some people up there to go kick rocks is actually cheaper than sending a series of robots that kick rocks in progressively more detail. I'm not sure if we've reached that technology point yet but as space flight gets cheaper and cheaper it will eventually happen for the moon and then for mars.

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did we throw away everything we learned in the apollo program? They won’t be starting from scratch on the design.

I have a friend who ordered the mechanical drawings for a P-51, intending to make P-51 assemblies. In investigating this, he talked to some P-51 experts who told him that the drawings were nearly useless. The real specification of the airplane was the tools and jigs created to make and assemble the parts. Those are long gone. The mechanical drawings were made after the fact to satisfy some DoD requirement.

This. I used to work in automotive engineering. I marveled at the lack of security around drawings for mechanical components. Ford, GM, and Chrysler all used the same design shops to create blueprints. When I went to get the latest drawings they would be sitting out on a big table in the lobby. The rolled up blueprint on top of the 9"mag tape that contained the CAD files. They were clearly marked with the car's model year and the part name and number. Anyone could grab it off the table. Only later in my career did I understand that the drawing for a component, while necessary, was more of a record, not an actual representation of the final component. The final part was a product of a tool that had been crafted to produce it. Die barbers had polished a stamping tool to get a wrinkle out. Someone in manufacturing had changed the melt time for a casting. The slump temperature for a windshield glass had been adjusted. A spray pattern for body paint was manually plugged into a robot arm and adjusted until the desired results were obtained.

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#198
post #138

No chance. This isn't the 1950s. We don't just throw people atop rockets anymore. These are vehicles, aircraft. There is absolutely no way any of the current crop of space vehicles could be made ready for a trip to the moon anytime before 2024. Going beyond low orbit, away from the sub-45min return time, is something we haven't done in generations. The craft need to be tested, repeatedly. Each test flight then has to…

We launch people on rockets every year to the ISS.

Launching people into space is one thing, but to land them on the moon and get them back safely is infinately harder. 2024? Not going to happen, it's impossible.

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#199

I hope not. I like telling old people that nobody has been to the moon in my lifetime. Last moon landing was December 1972, which puts bounds on my age and what I consider old people...

Old person here. I was 13 in December 1972 when NASA talked abut a permanent colony on the Moon by 1984. That drove me to graduate college with a BS in aerospace engineering. I attended one of the top three universities for aerospace. In order to study rockets I had to do it via "independent study" because all of the classes had been removed from the curriculum by 1979.

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#200
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It needs more than just the rocket. You also need a lunar lander, and all we have right now are paper sketches of designs that would take more than four years to finish and build, on conventional timelines. (One wild card is the SpaceX Starship, which Elon is talking about having some lunar capability for, on extremely aggressive timelines. But Starship is a risky project in all sorts of ways -- besides which, before…

> One wild card is the SpaceX Starship, which Elon is talking about having some lunar capability for, “Some lunar capability” is an understatement. If high elliptical orbital refuelling of Starship works it will completely change the game - eliminating the need for a lander & service module. Instead of delivering a 25-30 ton lander, they’ll land the entire second stage, with 100 tons of cargo (or dozens of passengers…

Lucky there isn't any wind on the moon to blow it over.
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