If you get sick with 2019-nCoV, and recover, do we know if You have developed immunity against it at that point?
I’ve seen studies indicating that reinfection with SARS was possible. It’s not unlikely.
Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
301–310 of 316 posts
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#302Earlier quoted context omitted.
Correct. Generally in China you buy your way into a hospital bed if it's busy. And "Big Sickness" (the Chinese term for cancer and heart surgery) ruins family finances, similar to the USA.
Jeeze dude. There are millions of Americans who weather cancer and heart surgery just fine without ruining their finances.
70 y.o: $2k social security check, $2k insurance costs, no savings
(This is my dad’s case...)
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#303Earlier quoted context omitted.
He's the expert, and I'm not. But I can do math. Influenza this year in the US: 19M infected and 10K fatalities. If you posit 1% mortality rate for coronavirus like he argues, that's 20 times more deadly. And it's twice that in China, it's unclear if that's a statistical anomaly or a structural feature of some difference in how things are tested/reported in China. So I'm not going to just shrug and say it's no big de…
If you want to protect your loved ones then maybe it is better to stay where you are? Traveling will increase the risk to become in contact with somebody who is infected. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51425702 Four adults and a child were diagnosed with the virus after coming into contact with a British national who recently returned from Singapore. The five Britons, who stayed in the same ski chalet, were not in a ser…
You're assuming I'm not already in Panama at the time.
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#304Earlier quoted context omitted.
He's the expert, and I'm not. But I can do math. Influenza this year in the US: 19M infected and 10K fatalities. If you posit 1% mortality rate for coronavirus like he argues, that's 20 times more deadly. And it's twice that in China, it's unclear if that's a statistical anomaly or a structural feature of some difference in how things are tested/reported in China. So I'm not going to just shrug and say it's no big de…
> We're at 2^15 and doubling every 5 days. If that keeps up for a month we'll be at 1M infected and 16K dead. From there it's another 50 days to 1B infected and 1-2M dead. You may be a programmer, but certainly not a virologist. That’s not how that works.
I stated as much in my comment. You can't just take an exponential trendline and plot it out and make predictions from it. But at what point does it start to slow down? Before a million infected - not a virologist, probably, but by how much?
Before a billion infected, well obviously. Flu infects about 9-45 million people a year, so there's a ballpark model. If we take 45M and 2% mortality as the worst case scenario - and really, it could be worse than that even. It's still a million deaths. That hasn't been seen since the Spanish flu at the end of World War I.
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#305Earlier quoted context omitted.
He's the expert, and I'm not. But I can do math. Influenza this year in the US: 19M infected and 10K fatalities. If you posit 1% mortality rate for coronavirus like he argues, that's 20 times more deadly. And it's twice that in China, it's unclear if that's a statistical anomaly or a structural feature of some difference in how things are tested/reported in China. So I'm not going to just shrug and say it's no big de…
So you are programmer and no epidemiologist. I would believe the true experts get their models and math right. And I believe them to have correct data base, plus the experience to read and interpret the data they get from the ground. The fact that you are already planning to bug out, despite being on a different continent is also a little bit telling.
I said I'm watching it and have planned for a worst-case eventuality. That's telling of what? My paranoia? Or just that I like plan things more than you do? I wouldn't read too much into that, it's not charitable. I'm probably a couple standard deviations smarter than you would guess, maybe smarter than you. Don't be dismissive.
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#306Earlier quoted context omitted.
He's the expert, and I'm not. But I can do math. Influenza this year in the US: 19M infected and 10K fatalities. If you posit 1% mortality rate for coronavirus like he argues, that's 20 times more deadly. And it's twice that in China, it's unclear if that's a statistical anomaly or a structural feature of some difference in how things are tested/reported in China. So I'm not going to just shrug and say it's no big de…
https://i.redd.it/88osl54prjf41.png What are your thoughts on this?
Strongly skeptical of claims like that.
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#307Earlier quoted context omitted.
He's the expert, and I'm not. But I can do math. Influenza this year in the US: 19M infected and 10K fatalities. If you posit 1% mortality rate for coronavirus like he argues, that's 20 times more deadly. And it's twice that in China, it's unclear if that's a statistical anomaly or a structural feature of some difference in how things are tested/reported in China. So I'm not going to just shrug and say it's no big de…
> But I can do math. > We're at 2^15 and doubling every 5 days. If that keeps up for a month we'll be at 1M infected and 16K dead. Obligatory: https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png This is also math. But it’s not the way things work.
Did you read my whole comment?
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#308Earlier quoted context omitted.
The disease takes about 2-3 weeks to run its course through each patient. It’s slow burning and mildly yet unpredictably lethal. That sounds innocuous but it is a recipe for disaster.
Transmission seems clearly far less bad than initially thought. If it were exponential we should be at millions infected right now.
China only has capacity to test a few thousand patients per day...
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#309Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can you grab and translate and share some of these please? Also, do you have any opinion on this: https://i.redd.it/88osl54prjf41.png
According to Wikipedia SO2 comes from fossil fuels so let's cross our fingers and pray they're just bringing a power plant online or something.
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#310Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is that "easy" to hide such big number of deaths in China?
Sure, you know because of China. And the internet says so. I always shocked when someone, especially on this forum, brings up stuff like that.