Earlier quoted context omitted.
Last thing the CCP needs is martyrs against the state
Easily solved by turning him into a state hero.
A state hero that the state arrested and silence just weeks earlier? That would be transparent.
Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
281–290 of 316 posts
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#282Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, you misunderstood the parent, as well as the facts: experts are saying that the widely parroted “2%” number is an overestimate , and that the real infection rate is lower. Deaths are easy to count. Minor cases of the virus are likely the most common sort, and never show up in a hospital at all.
No, I didn’t misunderstand anything. The “real experts” are saying that the denominator (number of infected) is likely much higher than official numbers. But they are not saying that the numerator (deaths) is accurately represented by official figures. Deaths are easy to count if you only count deaths of confirmed infected people. There’s plenty of evidence that people are dying outside of the medical system, and tha…
Now the interesting question is which number is greater, unreported cases or unreported deaths. I'd say the number of unreported cases tends to be way higher than unreported deaths. Fits apparently epidemics in general. Also it is kind of logic. Severe cases have a bias to end up in hospitals, and to reported when they end deadly, only leaving the measuring error due to reporting issues.
Less severe cases on the other hand have a tendency to end up unreported, not in the hospital. Neither deadly. Still leaves a number of never reported cases. All in all, unreported cases are likely to be higher than unreported deaths. As a result, qualitatively speaking, mortality should be lower.
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#283Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Or is it because it is China that a lots of people prefer to not believe them? Jesus man this is a modern day authoritarian regime with a fully digitized social credit score and reeducation camps for dissidents. Yes, it is perfectly rational not to trust what Chinese people are saying. I can't believe how thoroughly the notion of culture has been wiped from the American psyche. People on average think and act diffe…
And you really do believe with all that international scrutiny China would get away with reporting false numbers? Come on. Also don't know what to make of your last sentence. Cultural differences being negative? What are you talking about?
The grasp of the party pervades Chinese culture - particularly because their communications are monitored. China is effectively a black box. They so tightly control information that there is little the international community can gain from scrutiny. You are underestimating the awesome power of a modern orewellian surveillance state, and party loyalty had been forced into the culture of the average person. They will put their country first, and that includes maintaining that nothing severe is going on in their Homeland while they are abroad. Try asking any recent Chinese immigrants/visa workers you know, and you'll see how they tell you everything is fine. Just be aware you're putting them on the spot. Gulags are a powerful motivator.
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#284Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, I didn’t misunderstand anything. The “real experts” are saying that the denominator (number of infected) is likely much higher than official numbers. But they are not saying that the numerator (deaths) is accurately represented by official figures. Deaths are easy to count if you only count deaths of confirmed infected people. There’s plenty of evidence that people are dying outside of the medical system, and tha…
Now the interesting question is which number is greater, unreported cases or unreported deaths. I'd say the number of unreported cases tends to be way higher than unreported deaths. Fits apparently epidemics in general. Also it is kind of logic. Severe cases have a bias to end up in hospitals, and to reported when they end deadly, only leaving the measuring error due to reporting issues. Less severe cases on the othe…
I'd say the number of unreported cases tends to be way higher than unreported deaths.
Of course, but that doesn’t mean that mortality will be lower. A much smaller number of unreported deaths can shift the rate upward. At a 2% mortality rate, you only need one unreported death for every 50 unreported infected to maintain the same rate. That might be laughably high or laughably low. We just don’t know.
But the people in the best position to know, the Chinese government, seem to be taking this pretty damn seriously.
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#285Earlier quoted context omitted.
>case fatality rate: the number of deaths due to a specific disease as compared to the total number of cases of the disease. [0] You can't take a case into account until you know its outcome. What am I missing? 0. https://medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/lethality+r...
Official mortality rate is 2.1%. Deaths per confirmed infections. And yes, the WHO isn't that stupid to count cases that aren't decided yet. And yes, they are smart enough to take the appr. three weeks it usually takes until death into account. No idea where you got that 30% from. Even in Wuhan, with its medical infrastructure close to the breaking point, we are talking about 4.9%.
>where you got that 30% from
According to https://coronavirus.app/ we have 34955 infected, 726 dead, 2287 recovered as of now. Total resolved cases are dead + recovered, which is 3013. Fatality rate is 726 / 3013 = 24.1%. At the time of my original post it was 30%.
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#286Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm reminded of the people who went into Chernobyl to begin containment. Hard to call them anything but heroes.
In the 2019 television series, they were miners conscripted into service on the disaster. And in the show they actually did work literally naked due to the heat.
Back in those days we were all drafted to the army and everyone ended up a reservist and therefore technically obligated to follow orders
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#287Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#288Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not too much, no. But we will know who is right in just a few weeks, so we’ll see.
Fast quarantine for example is one big difference. People with symptoms that could be Corona related going to hospitals is another big difference. Tests being developed. Hospitals being on alert. But believe whatever you want.
That certainly helped with SARS. But nCov appears to be transmissible at the time symptoms appear or even earlier. That is a big difference from SARS and makes self-isolation and quarantine significantly less effective.
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#289Earlier quoted context omitted.
I believe it goes further than this. WHO and China are both trying to downplay the severity of the pandemic because they know if they publish more accurate estimates, it will cause mass panic. Panic is not helpful in any situation, and leads to an unstable society, hoarding, and destructive behaviors.
And what makes you believe that to be true? Have any WHO numbers been proven wrong in the past for, say, ebola? SARS? Or any other epidemic or disease? Or is it because it is China that a lots of people prefer to not believe them? Because that is how you spread panic if you ask me.
It's widely reported that the confirmed case count published by China is far below the actual case count. This is due to several factors, including:
* A high percentage of asymptomatic carriers (WHO est. 82%), who have mild symptoms and no need to go to the hospital. These victims are still able to transmit the virus to others.
* Reporting the cause of death for suspected but not confirmed cases as "viral pneumonia". Doing so does not increase the coronavirus case count. https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-american-citizen-diagnosed-w...
* A lack of supply of testing kits. https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-china-shor...
* Turning away and not testing suspected patients due to lack of hospital beds. https://www.wsj.com/articles/united-american-airlines-suspen...
* A high false-negative rate on testing kits, estimated as high as 30-50%. https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-08/key-diagnostic-test-...
Read that China and WHO are not "wrong" about the reported case numbers. They do not reflect how widespread the virus is. I've read reports that the true case count is 5-10x higher.
Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU
#290Earlier quoted context omitted.
You really should read up again on that...
>case fatality rate: the number of deaths due to a specific disease as compared to the total number of cases of the disease. [0] You can't take a case into account until you know its outcome. What am I missing? 0. https://medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/lethality+r...
Take a hypothetical disease A that started spreading on Jan 1st. It takes a patient 1 month to recover from A, while it only takes 7 days for A to kill. We perform a calculation on Feb 9th to determine A's case fatality rate.
The correct way to calculate A's case fatality rate would be to select a cohort, Group B, for example: everyone infected in the first week. And calculate:
(deaths in Group B by Feb 9th) / (deaths in Group B by Feb 9th + recovered in Group B by Feb 9th)
An incorrect way to calculate A's case fatality rate would be:
(deaths by Feb 9th) / (deaths by Feb 9th + recovered by Feb 9th)
This is incorrect because "deaths by Feb 9th" includes all deaths from people infected between Jan 1st and Feb 2nd, while "recovered by Feb 9th" only counts the recovered patients who were infected between Jan 1st and Jan 9th. The above equation basically expands to:
(deaths in Group C by Feb 9th) / (deaths in Group C by Feb 9th + recovered in Group D by Feb 9th)
Where:
Group C: infected between Jan 1st and Feb 2nd
Group D: infected between Jan 1st and Jan 9th
Since disease A is spreading exponentially, it's clear that Group C is a few orders of magnitude larger than Group D.