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Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

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61–70 of 316 posts

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#61

Honestly if there is truth to this article it is reassuring. I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. This doctor is working on the absolute worst of cases and even they, it seems, have a high overall probability of survival. Also good to see some figures on the p…

Isn’t Caixin Global a Chinese news source, almost certainly filtered? Do you have a reason to believe them more than the dark corners?

The WHO also announced 5-6 days average incubation with a mortality rate around 3%.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#62

Did you see Eric Raymond having a completely normal one about novel Coronavirus? http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=8587

Meanwhile ... the news on the Lieber story[0], which first appeared 5 weeks ago, has gone silent. Interesting coincidence. Of course, on Reddit it's been combined with Epstein. BTW, in case you run across it, here's what 'BSL-4' means.[1]

[0] https://www.npr.org/2020/01/28/800442646/acclaimed-harvard-s...

[1] https://consteril.com/biosafety-levels-difference/

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#63

Honestly if there is truth to this article it is reassuring. I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. This doctor is working on the absolute worst of cases and even they, it seems, have a high overall probability of survival. Also good to see some figures on the p…

> I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted.

I do the same. If you can read Chinese, I strongly recommend you read Sina Weibo, a micro-blogging social media in China, or Toutiao. Read them quickly before posts are inevitably deleted by the censors. There are some truly harrowing stories of ordinary people being refused treatment and left to die at home.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As others have alluded to, I think you are confusing flu with cold.

I agree with the others, but I think we should note that these sorts of illness are not divided neatly into two categories, cold and flu. Besides the many different viruses grouped under "the common cold", there is a whole spectrum of bacterial infections whose symptoms look similar to, and interpolate between, the cold and flu. So there are other things someone could get that are like less severe version of the flu,…

I believe pneumonia can be caused by a number of bacteria. These used to be very deadly before the advance of antibiotics, much worse than the flu or cold.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#65
post #48
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a something like 20% hospitalisation rate. That seems kind of scary compared to the flu which is "you have a sniffle, get over it."

Influenza is a serious disease that kills tens of thousands of people every year. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

The overwhelming majority of deaths are elderly people though. Then most of the rest are above middle aged. Only a tiny percentage of young healthy people die from the flu. One thing that's very different about some of these strains.

EDIT: not to minimize the flu though. Comparing a flu to a cold is like comparing a migraine to a tension headache.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#66

Honestly if there is truth to this article it is reassuring. I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. This doctor is working on the absolute worst of cases and even they, it seems, have a high overall probability of survival. Also good to see some figures on the p…

Isn’t Caixin Global a Chinese news source, almost certainly filtered? Do you have a reason to believe them more than the dark corners?

You're right, and this could very well be a propaganda piece, but it somehow comes off as genuine. There are activists in China who recognize the severity, understand the grasp of the party, and still desperately attempt to reach out - including the selfless doctor who died yesterday, and a number of activists who have already been disappeared. No doubt the number of such people has been increasing exponentially and the only antidote to authoritarian control is numbers. It's plausible that enough Chinese sympathetic to dissemination of such critical information have gathered such that an article like this may be genuine.

Moreover, while many terrible rumors ostensibly from educated and/or directly witnessing sources from the dregs of the web have turned out to be true, these sources are even less reliable than the CCP, given the propensity of netizens for exaggerating and/or deliberately spreading falsehoods. Which is to say reports out of China may not be that much less reliable than much of what is floating around and at this point, as ridiculous as I know it sounds, I'm almost willing to relax my suspicion and cling to slivers of hope.

The undesputed facts so far are grim. 80-90% of the Chinese GDP has been shut down, we still don't know with certainty just how contagious or dangerous the virus actually is, but it is obviously more virulent than any of the previous viruses from the Corona family, and if for whatever reason containment fails for an extended period of time in a region, you can expect severe social hardship. How long can China continue to operate at 10% capacity?

It is only prudent in my opinion to make at least minimal preparations now with 1-2 months of food and water before panic potentially sets in and stores are emptied. There is still a high probability that the virus will be sufficiently contained and minimally deadly, but this also is shaping up to possibly be the biggest threat faced by civilization in centuries, exceeding the Spanish Flu of the early 1900s. I'm about halfway through Gallaher's report linked in these comments (very thankful for it) and I hope I'm wrong, but even his numbers are understandably prefaced with uncertainty.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#67
post #63

Honestly if there is truth to this article it is reassuring. I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. This doctor is working on the absolute worst of cases and even they, it seems, have a high overall probability of survival. Also good to see some figures on the p…

> I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. I do the same. If you can read Chinese, I strongly recommend you read Sina Weibo, a micro-blogging social media in China, or Toutiao. Read them quickly before posts are inevitably deleted by the censors. There are some tr…

I don't but if you do you have a huge opportunity here to spread critical information to the world, if you are willing and able to post translations.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t Caixin Global a Chinese news source, almost certainly filtered? Do you have a reason to believe them more than the dark corners?

The WHO also announced 5-6 days average incubation with a mortality rate around 3%.

The WHO has been reporting numbers almost identical to those out of China, which are unquestionably and severely underreported and can only represent a distant lower bound. I don't think anything coming from the WHO can be trusted. I honestly think it hugely irresponsible for the WHO to report these numbers without clear disclaimers.

In fact, there are clear politics at play here, as the WHO has only come out with massive praise for China's response, making no mention of the CCP's clear attempt to keep knowledge of the virus from spreading and the silencing of activists and the medical community at large by charging them with spreading false rumors. If China had taken proactive measures months ago instead of initiating a campaign of suppression things would be different now.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#69

Honestly if there is truth to this article it is reassuring. I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. This doctor is working on the absolute worst of cases and even they, it seems, have a high overall probability of survival. Also good to see some figures on the p…

Regarding sources, I came across this article in the Sinocism newsletter from Bill Bishop. I only subscribe to the free version, but during the coronavirus crisis he's been making the full version free. It's a pretty broad survey of both Chinese and English language sources, usually with an economic and political focus. It's at sinocism.com.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#70

Honestly if there is truth to this article it is reassuring. I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. This doctor is working on the absolute worst of cases and even they, it seems, have a high overall probability of survival. Also good to see some figures on the p…

Isn’t Caixin Global a Chinese news source, almost certainly filtered? Do you have a reason to believe them more than the dark corners?

Even though this is true, Caixin has been allowed some leniency, especially in reporting this outbreak. Some reports have been very distinct from the official reporting, although it appears that some articles have also been retracted.

In times of a crisis like this, some signal will get through.

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