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Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

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Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#161

Post by ydb »

dghughes wrote: post #37

I'm certainly on the climate change team (if that's what you call it). But are articles like this good or bad? When confronting climate change deniers the standard response is "weather is not climate". Saying it's hot today or cold today isn't an indication of climate change. It's what occurs over hundreds of years but especially the last 150 years. It seems we are sending mixed signals saying that one day or a decad…

> But are articles like this good or bad?

Articles like this make me want to sniff glue. What should be written — and disseminated widely — is the truth that climate catastrophe is on our doorstep.

Who gives a shit if Norway is warmer and warmer, or if some other place is colder due to the chaotic nature of weather? The point is, "global warming" is rapidly destabilizing — no, destroying — ecosystems that we depend upon for our survival, and unleashing feedback loops that we are helpless to stop.

It's only going to get worse. Most articles don't go far enough in explaining the severity of the situation, because it'll frighten the neoliberals and trigger the neocons.

If Hacker News is still around in the next decade, I can't wait to read all the comments by the people here who love to bikeshed about "optics" and bullshit when actual widespread famine is beginning to rear its ugly head. I'm afraid most of you will turn inside out with all that navel-gazing.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#163

Post by koheripbal »

leto_ii wrote: post #114
koheripbal wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a more useful metric is per unit of GDP . ...because then it becomes an efficiency metric. "How much wealth can we create with X amount of CO2".

I really don't see how this would be a good idea. First of all it suggests that wealth is the be-all and end-all of human progress. It also implies that wealth creation is equivalent wherever it happens - that somehow if a place is more efficient at creating wealth than it should be privileged. Finally, of course, this means that poorer countries that produce less wealth will almost certainly be less efficient by thi…

> it suggests that wealth is the be-all and end-all of human progress

You misunderstand. The point is to quantify economic power. ...because economic power is the ONLY way fix global warming.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#164

Post by wott »

paulintrognon wrote: post #39

I live in France next to the Alpes and climate change is really real here. Next week it's expecting to rain on the ski slopes. In the middle of February! Lots of glaciers are gone. Many of my mountain climbing friends say they can't do the runs they used to because the terrain is getting too unpredictable. It's quite scary.

In the centre of the Pyrenees, my local ski resort will not open for skiing holidays, for the first time ever (the resort is just a bit older than I am, and I am nearing 45 years old). Not opening for Christmas is not unusual, snow is often lacking then, but for February, that's a first... There is no snow, most of the time it doesn't even freeze at night. It is also pretty dry. Down in the valley, we didn't have a single strong frost night since the beginning of the autumn and winter, just some 0/-1/-2/-3°C.

It comes after an incredibly hot and dry summer. My place is supposed to be very green and wet: this year it rained only twice in 3 months! And those were not even summer rains, those two rainy days looked like small November rainfalls. When I was a kid we had short summer storms several times a week (in the end of afternoon / early evening), especially in August (less so in July, but still there were a few). The system has completely changed over the last 2 decades.

And then the autumn was dry too, except for 1 month. And now the winter is warm and dry.

And that comes after a similar year the year before, which was just a little bit softer.

--------

That's not just anecdotal: the long term measurements show huge changes, and acceleration. Short term measurements too: monthly records get beaten all the time those last 5 years.

Wetter and colder places have been impacted more by the warming, apparently.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#165

Post by koheripbal »

skybrian wrote: post #156
koheripbal wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only way to combat a Tragedy of the Commons problem is through collective action. Unilateral changes actually have a net negative impact because other parties simply consume more (CO2 in this case).

How do you know there is a negative effect? I can see some people buying more because something is on sale, but that's temporary and overall a smaller market should consume less.

Because there is a cost to not using that common good and pursuing an alternative energy source.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#166

Post by distances »

CuriousSkeptic wrote: post #100
deanclatworthy wrote: post #69

What I have found more frustrating than those in denial of climate change lately, is those who deny responsibility. That the real problem is in other countries. India. China. America. Little old X in Europe can't possible be the ones that need to sort it out. Therefore there's no point changing our habits. I feel a little hopeless in these discussions. I have little hope for change. I cannot argue against the fact th…

One way to approach this perhaps is to look at emissions per capita. Norway, as an example, is a way bigger offender (or at least has been, haven’t check recent data) than China by this metric. And it _is_ a political problem at this point. You cant really demand change from people around you if you’re not prepared to do the same yourself.

People on denial will always find a viewpoint that suits them. I've witnessed discussions demanding emission limits per square kilometer of land. Unsurprisingly by people from sparsely populated areas.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#167

Post by koheripbal »

eloff wrote: post #129
koheripbal wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only way to combat a Tragedy of the Commons problem is through collective action. Unilateral changes actually have a net negative impact because other parties simply consume more (CO2 in this case).

> Unilateral changes actually have a net negative impact because other parties simply consume more (CO2 in this case). I fail to see your logic. If many people consume less petroleum maybe the price goes down and others consume more, but I don't see how they're going to consume more than what was the state of things in the first place. Honestly it seems like a shallow rationalization to avoid taking personal responsi…

It's very simple. If Country A reduces CO2 production by closing a few factories, and Country B increases CO2 production to replace that market demand, Country A will have spent economic resources in making that change, and Country B would simply be producing what A+B produced before.

It's a net negative for the world.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#168

Post by darkmighty »

euix wrote: post #134

The thing about climate change is that some small proportion of the population, probably elites, farsighted and lucky will likely benefit from it, in the form of profiting off the weakest and more vulnerable by providing some sort of assistance or accommodation, from new industries that will arise to accommodate or from arbitrage on land that will become uninhabitable versus that which will become newly inhabitable.…

This is too contrived an explanation (for the general climate change denialism), I think. I think there are two facets to it:

1) Some industries refuse to even consider it because it means they're effectively dead -- coal, oil, and a few other industries. They fuel propaganda because of this

2) Sheer ignorance

I say because it's very difficult and fragile to try and profit off a genuine catastrophe. We are indeed heading for a disaster (2C warming) even under quite optimistic assumptions about world politics and people accepting climate change and whatnot; if there is not enough action, if some technologies are not developed quickly enough, we are facing genuine catastrophe (I think there's far too much faith in a magical technological solution (rapid carbon capture) in current scenarios) -- 3 or 4C warming, where you start to talk about civilization collapse. This seems like a very weird thing to gamble with, specially since gambles require long term payoffs. If the economy and politics is a mess and there's general instability, how can you guarantee ability to monetize your bets?

No, I think most people are just genuinely not aware, willfully ignorant, don't believe humans could alter the climate, etc.

In a way it's good, because it means you can fight it to an extent with information.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#169

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

lopmotr wrote: post #133
leto_ii wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Anecdotal evidence isn't very reliable. True. Yet, as climate change accelerates it's absolutely reasonable to expect that we will be able to sense its effects in our daily lives. I also have quite a number of personal observations that point to the idea that the planet is warming up. On the one hand I try to remain rational and say that this is a long-term trend, but on the other I'm thinking: holy crap, things ar…

No we shouldn't! You don't give up the principles of science just to expedite your political ideals. If you were going to do that, why bother with science in the first place? Just declare it so and shout it until everyone believes you! I have memories of world 30 years ago being hotter than it is today. I don't credit it to "global cooling" because I'm not that silly. You shouldn't be either. You'll never notice a de…

If you understood science you'd understand why "you'll never notice a degree C of average temperature change" is wholly, irrevocably, unarguably, objectively, and absolutely scientifically incorrect.

The scientific reality is that climate models have made decently accurate predictions so far. The whole point of the models is that 1C or 2C of change is not just about your own personal subjective experience of how warm it is.

The predictions are about everyone's personal subjective experience of having their home flooded, or destroyed in a fire, tornado or hurricane - all of which become more likely as temperatures rise.

This has literally been understood for decades now - by climate scientists, by the fossil fuel industry, and also by insurers.

Those are the obvious first order effects. The longer term second order effects - water shortages, crop failure, economic instability - are at least as important, if harder to model. And the third order consequences - homelessness, resource wars, mass migration - even more so.

Just because you have failed to educate yourself properly, while persuading yourself that your subjective opinion about "clothing and heating" is as credible scientifically as that of thousands of climate science PhDs working full-time on modelling, and don't understand that these are specific, actionable predictions doesn't mean they won't affect you personally.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#170

Post by skybrian »

koheripbal wrote: post #165
skybrian wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know there is a negative effect? I can see some people buying more because something is on sale, but that's temporary and overall a smaller market should consume less.

Because there is a cost to not using that common good and pursuing an alternative energy source.

Even for the cheapest approach, there is still a cost to consuming more rather than less. Energy isn't free.
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