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Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

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Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#101

Post by manfredo »

CuriousSkeptic wrote: post #100
deanclatworthy wrote: post #69

What I have found more frustrating than those in denial of climate change lately, is those who deny responsibility. That the real problem is in other countries. India. China. America. Little old X in Europe can't possible be the ones that need to sort it out. Therefore there's no point changing our habits. I feel a little hopeless in these discussions. I have little hope for change. I cannot argue against the fact th…

One way to approach this perhaps is to look at emissions per capita. Norway, as an example, is a way bigger offender (or at least has been, haven’t check recent data) than China by this metric. And it _is_ a political problem at this point. You cant really demand change from people around you if you’re not prepared to do the same yourself.

It largely depends on how you count emissions. Norway has very low emissions per capita, as they have the right geography for hydroelectric power (with which they generate >95% of their electricity). On the other hand, they have a large industry of exporting oil to other countries.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#102

Post by koheripbal »

deanclatworthy wrote: post #69

What I have found more frustrating than those in denial of climate change lately, is those who deny responsibility. That the real problem is in other countries. India. China. America. Little old X in Europe can't possible be the ones that need to sort it out. Therefore there's no point changing our habits. I feel a little hopeless in these discussions. I have little hope for change. I cannot argue against the fact th…

The only way to combat a Tragedy of the Commons problem is through collective action.

Unilateral changes actually have a net negative impact because other parties simply consume more (CO2 in this case).

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#103

Post by keanzu »

mariushn wrote: post #98

Nice visuals/UX, contributing to a better understanding of changes. FYI, happened last year: Norway refuses to drill for billions of barrels of oil in Arctic, leaving ‘whole industry surprised and disappointed’. Government made the right choice, but a few (prosperous already) affected by making less money complained: https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/norway-oil-drillin...

The 2010s oil glut is a considerable surplus of crude oil that started in 2014–2015 and accelerated in 2016, with multiple causes. U.S. oil production nearly doubled from 2008 levels, due to substantial improvements in shale "fracking" technology.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010s_oil_glut

There are economic reasons as to why drilling for oil isn't a good idea right now.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#104

Post by koheripbal »

CuriousSkeptic wrote: post #100
deanclatworthy wrote: post #69

What I have found more frustrating than those in denial of climate change lately, is those who deny responsibility. That the real problem is in other countries. India. China. America. Little old X in Europe can't possible be the ones that need to sort it out. Therefore there's no point changing our habits. I feel a little hopeless in these discussions. I have little hope for change. I cannot argue against the fact th…

One way to approach this perhaps is to look at emissions per capita. Norway, as an example, is a way bigger offender (or at least has been, haven’t check recent data) than China by this metric. And it _is_ a political problem at this point. You cant really demand change from people around you if you’re not prepared to do the same yourself.

I think a more useful metric is per unit of GDP. ...because then it becomes an efficiency metric. "How much wealth can we create with X amount of CO2".

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#105

Post by manfredo »

bett3513 wrote: post #66
dghughes wrote: post #37

I'm certainly on the climate change team (if that's what you call it). But are articles like this good or bad? When confronting climate change deniers the standard response is "weather is not climate". Saying it's hot today or cold today isn't an indication of climate change. It's what occurs over hundreds of years but especially the last 150 years. It seems we are sending mixed signals saying that one day or a decad…

I disagree, I live in Southeast Australia and have never seen so many people accept climate change as real as this past summer. If it takes a slight misunderstanding about weather relating to climate change to get immediate action, isn’t that a good thing?

> If it takes a slight misunderstanding about weather relating to climate change to get immediate action, isn’t that a good thing?

Probably not, since people will point out that this call to action is based in falsehood and the credibility of the movement will be compromised.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#106

Post by leto_ii »

dghughes wrote: post #37

I'm certainly on the climate change team (if that's what you call it). But are articles like this good or bad? When confronting climate change deniers the standard response is "weather is not climate". Saying it's hot today or cold today isn't an indication of climate change. It's what occurs over hundreds of years but especially the last 150 years. It seems we are sending mixed signals saying that one day or a decad…

> Anecdotal evidence isn't very reliable.

True. Yet, as climate change accelerates it's absolutely reasonable to expect that we will be able to sense its effects in our daily lives.

I also have quite a number of personal observations that point to the idea that the planet is warming up. On the one hand I try to remain rational and say that this is a long-term trend, but on the other I'm thinking: holy crap, things are happening so fast that I now have memories from when the world was noticeably cooler.

I think therefore that over the next decades we should start accepting anecdotal evidence as real evidence, as global warming starts having a real impact on our lives.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#107

Post by aksss »

floren wrote: post #73
andrewla wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are also generally not that easily tricked. If you play up the "bring global warming home with anecdotes" game, then you're equally vulnerable to "hey, sure is cold today, what now, Al Gore?" Nobody will be convinced of anything by this sort of nonsense. Weather is not climate. Even when it supports climate change.

> Weather is not climate. Even when it supports climate change. It's certainly been quite a shift to watch. 10 years ago, you'd hear "Sure is cold today, so much for global warming eh?" followed by cries that weather is not climate. Today, it seems that a hot summer day, or a cool summer day, or a warm winter day, or a particularly cold winter day, is just more proof of climate change. I say this as someone who think…

Somebody was saying last year that climate alarmists do more damage than climate deniers. I think this is true. All the prognostications sound a bit like a death cult telling us the world will end on July 15, 20xx or the Mayan calendar or the comet will signal the end and people just tune that noise out. They can smell hysteria. Part of the problem is co-opting celebrities or personalities that are louder than their understanding of the science, and make very loud and visible statements that tarnish the science and policy discussion. We'd probably all be better off if the messaging was a little more sober about what the real risk levels are and timeframes, trusting the people in time to come around. The idea of doing massive economic policy change overnight was/is a doomed proposition. It's self-defeating to try and scare people off drugs by overstating the risk, so too with scaring people into climate policy.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#108

Post by sorenjan »

paulintrognon wrote: post #39

I live in France next to the Alpes and climate change is really real here. Next week it's expecting to rain on the ski slopes. In the middle of February! Lots of glaciers are gone. Many of my mountain climbing friends say they can't do the runs they used to because the terrain is getting too unpredictable. It's quite scary.

I live in Sweden. A few days ago, we got the first snow of the season here, and most of it has already melted away. Several ski slopes has decided to not open this season, since there's no chance of making any snow even if it would get cold, because the ground is too warm. It's been approximately 5-10° C warmer than usual, with the warmest January day ever.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#109

Post by serpix »

yakshaving_jgt wrote: post #81
blobs wrote: post #62

While economy and consumerism are destroying our planet, we are complaining about the UX of an emergency call.. In other news stories I see participants of Extinction Rebellion being arrested by police as if they were criminals, while temperatures world wide are breaking all records and the ramifications are clearly seen almost anywhere on the planet. It just renders me speechless.

Can you explain to me how yoga and drum circles in the streets of London helps combat climate change?

Sure as hell beats the alternative of driving to work everyday and eating meat as usual.

Re: Global warming has begun to make Norway warmer and wetter

#110

Post by MR4D »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #79
xkemp wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We know the historic average, but also variability, and I'm pretty sure that data just so happens to be a standard example of what is specifically called the "normal distribution". So I don't see what the problem is with charting, say, the 98% confidence interval, calling it normal, and stating that values outside that range are 1-in-50 year events.

The problem is is that the average is presented without the range and called normal or typical. you may live your life and never experience an average day.

Thank you !

Most people never understand this aspect of statistics. Living in Houston, and having survived 3 out of 4 years with an above-100-year floods, I understand firsthand the clumping of events. But the "typical" guy on the street (oops, now I just violated my own rule!) has no clue what a distribution is.

Not sure how to solve this problem. Teaching statistics to everyone in not a solution (see the Monty Hall Problem [0] ).

[0] - https://statisticsbyjim.com/fun/monty-hall-problem/

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