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Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

citylab.com

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Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#81

Post by MR4D »

FooHentai wrote: post #33
ash wrote: post #12

> In the worst-case scenario, in which sea levels rise by six feet by 2100, ... Where does six feet come from? It seems very suspicious. It contradicts NOAA Sea Level Trends data of tide gauge measurements, going back to 1930 and sometimes earlier. According to the map, in almost all places in US the projected sea level trend is no more than 1-1.5 feet by 2100: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html…

There's a major research initiative taking place right now into Thwaites Glacier, as unexpectedly fast melting is occurring. It's thought this is due to warm saltwater penetration underneath the glacier but other factors are being considered. The issue with Thwaites Glacier is it has a tapered edge that generally resists thawing, but that widens out to a huge contact surface area once erosion by salt water progresses…

And right next door is a nice mantle plume heating things up. [0] You may have the causality wrong - mantle heats water melts ice - might be the more accurate causal links.

[0] - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/201...

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#82

Post by cbHXBY1D »

wenc wrote: post #42
rilindo wrote: post #3

I find it hilarious that even in a worse scenario with the climate crisis, Chicago somehow did not get any migrants .

Hilarious and wrong headed. Chicago is the largest city stateside (Toronto on the Canadian side) next to a Great Lake with the infrastructure and hinterland to support a large population. Fresh water supply is going to be critical in a climate crisis.

Yep the Great Lake region is probably the best situated to weather the storm of climate change.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#84

Post by axaxs »

keanzu wrote: post #57

In 1903 humans first achieved heavier than air powered flight. Less than 60 years later, in 1959, man landed on the moon. I feel confident that in the next 80 years we'll manage to figure out how to build some 6ft tall levees. There will be little climate migration. People like living near the coast.

I'm in full agreement, but that idea isn't popular here, where I find folks a bit fatalistic. I understand why of course, assuming 'someone will solve it' takes the urgency out of the problem. We do need to take action, absolutely. But am I worried about sea level rise here in Florida? Not at all. There's just too much money at stake to throw our hands up and run. And I don't mean just here, or even the US... most of the world's wealth is on the coast.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#85

Post by A_Parr »

cbHXBY1D wrote: post #82
wenc wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hilarious and wrong headed. Chicago is the largest city stateside (Toronto on the Canadian side) next to a Great Lake with the infrastructure and hinterland to support a large population. Fresh water supply is going to be critical in a climate crisis.

Yep the Great Lake region is probably the best situated to weather the storm of climate change.

The irony is that it used to be an ocean before climate change covered everything in glaciers.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#86

Post by keanzu »

axaxs wrote: post #84
keanzu wrote: post #57

In 1903 humans first achieved heavier than air powered flight. Less than 60 years later, in 1959, man landed on the moon. I feel confident that in the next 80 years we'll manage to figure out how to build some 6ft tall levees. There will be little climate migration. People like living near the coast.

I'm in full agreement, but that idea isn't popular here, where I find folks a bit fatalistic. I understand why of course, assuming 'someone will solve it' takes the urgency out of the problem. We do need to take action, absolutely. But am I worried about sea level rise here in Florida? Not at all. There's just too much money at stake to throw our hands up and run. And I don't mean just here, or even the US... most of…

A third of the country will be underwater sounds a lot more scary than we'll have to build some small walls, about 1ft per decade, in some areas.

About one third of the Netherlands lies below sea level, with the lowest point being 22 feet (6.7 meters) below sea level. Doesn't make for much of a post-apocalyptic visual - act now or end up like the Netherlands.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#87

Post by IanDrake »

dkarras wrote: post #61
IanDrake wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obama only ran the country for 8 years, but hfdh434535 knows better. Real estate is about the closest thing to putting your money where your mouth is as far as climate change goes and the people have spoken - the coasts are still the most valuable and desirable places to live.

>Real estate is about the closest thing to putting your money where your mouth is as far as climate change goes and the people have spoken I would definitely buy coast property today because this won't be a significant problem in my lifetime. I'd buy from coast again when it becomes a significant problem, just that the coast location would be different of course.

You're re missing the point. Look at the map, the blue region is the extent in 100 years.

What do you think happens in that 100 years? I assume this would be a near linear progression. That means current waterfront has about 10-20 years, not 100.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#88

Post by dkarras »

IanDrake wrote: post #87
dkarras wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Real estate is about the closest thing to putting your money where your mouth is as far as climate change goes and the people have spoken I would definitely buy coast property today because this won't be a significant problem in my lifetime. I'd buy from coast again when it becomes a significant problem, just that the coast location would be different of course.

You're re missing the point. Look at the map, the blue region is the extent in 100 years. What do you think happens in that 100 years? I assume this would be a near linear progression. That means current waterfront has about 10-20 years, not 100.

The blue region will not be totally underwater. The most pessimistic estimate is a 6 feet rise by 2100. A coast property, if you are inclined, can deal with that.

The note under map says: Blue indicates counties where flooding will displace residents if sea levels rise by six feet by 2100. Counties in shades of pink and red will see higher-than-average migration, with the darker shades representing larger population increases.

So it only means people will likely migrate to other areas, not that the blue places will be totally underwater by 2100.

Got me wondering though, are you really a climate change skeptic? I mean climate change is something as obvious as gravity, we have all the data to support it, we can directly observe it etc. I find it hard for a sane people to question it, really. I mean I understand how someone can be skeptical about "man made climate change" which is something open to debate, but climate change itself isn't really open to debate.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#89

Post by whatsmyusername »

Izkata wrote: post #79
whatsmyusername wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No because you'll get black mold growing that will spread throughout the structure. Maybe in otherwise dry areas, but I doubt it.

Depends on how you go about it. In the 1800s, Chicago was lifted up from nearly being at the same level as Lake Michigan: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raising_of_Chicago

On a small scale sure, there's always exceptions.

I don't see this happening across the entire coastline of the US or (even less likely) along the shores of affected tributaries.

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