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Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

citylab.com

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Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#51

Post by baq »

IanDrake wrote: post #41
hfdh434535 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buyers and Lenders are in fact, colossal fools. People build in floodplains all the time.

Obama only ran the country for 8 years, but hfdh434535 knows better. Real estate is about the closest thing to putting your money where your mouth is as far as climate change goes and the people have spoken - the coasts are still the most valuable and desirable places to live.

That is true, always has been and always will be true, regardless of where the coastline happens to be at the time :)

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#52

Post by dflock »

smooth_remmy wrote: post #47
FooHentai wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a major research initiative taking place right now into Thwaites Glacier, as unexpectedly fast melting is occurring. It's thought this is due to warm saltwater penetration underneath the glacier but other factors are being considered. The issue with Thwaites Glacier is it has a tapered edge that generally resists thawing, but that widens out to a huge contact surface area once erosion by salt water progresses…

> This glacier alone will cause a global sea level rise of three feet. Where did you get that information? This source from Wikipedia says it would cause a rise of 4 inches: At the beginning of 2020, researchers from the ITGC took measurements to develop scenarios for the future of the glacier and to predict the time frame for a possible collapse: The erosion of the glacier by warmed ocean water seems to be stronger…

What?

Your quote says 4% of global sea level rise from this one glacier, not 4" - it says 25" at the end there.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#53

Post by Animats »

mc32 wrote: post #2

The map is very rough and relies on counties affected, rather than topography (elevation and closeness to bodies of water and waterways) so some counties can have coastal exposure but also have shelter (high elevation). King county WA for example or Los Angeles co. CA So it presents a more alarming picture than one would imagine.

Yes. That map shows entire counties in blue if any point in the county would be flooded.

For almost all of coastal California, you don't have to go very far inland until you're way above sea level. LA looks flat, but go three blocks inland from the beach in Venice and you're up a few meters. The California coast is the shelf of a mountain range.

Florida, though, does have real problems. Most of the state is barely above sea level. And Miami is on permeable rock; sea walls won't help.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#54

Post by jellicle »

goodcanadian wrote: post #31
Tarragon wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the map shades of red indicate above average immigration. White is unspecified so some meaning of avaerage; not none, but average. That said I have basically the same question. Why are cities not getting above average immigration? You noticed Chicago, I noticed Buffalo and Rochester, which are the #2 and #3 largest cities in NY.

It appears that the colours have more to do with migration compared to historic trends: Many may end up moving to the suburbs in the Midwest, where the model shows a larger-than-average influx of migrants compared to historic trends. So, it is really showing places that have not historically had a lot of people moving in.

Right. The complaints seem largely about being unable to understand the map.

If rural western Kentucky gets 2 climate migrants and Chicago gets 100, this may represent a much greater increase in Kentucky migration rates than Chicago migration rates.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#55

Post by whatsmyusername »

agumonkey wrote: post #44

I had this wonky idea that maybe buildings in these area should be adapted to have their first floors underwater yet still usable in some ways.

No because you'll get black mold growing that will spread throughout the structure.

Maybe in otherwise dry areas, but I doubt it.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#56

Post by qroshan »

mc32 wrote: post #2

The map is very rough and relies on counties affected, rather than topography (elevation and closeness to bodies of water and waterways) so some counties can have coastal exposure but also have shelter (high elevation). King county WA for example or Los Angeles co. CA So it presents a more alarming picture than one would imagine.

This analysis is also garbage and is typical what comes out of clueless single-dimensional thinking. This 'research' doesn't take into account technological advances, human responses, infrastructure innovation that can happen while the oceans are slowly rising at 0.01 mm per day

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#57

Post by keanzu »

In 1903 humans first achieved heavier than air powered flight. Less than 60 years later, in 1959, man landed on the moon.

I feel confident that in the next 80 years we'll manage to figure out how to build some 6ft tall levees.

There will be little climate migration. People like living near the coast.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#58

Post by yongjik »

ash wrote: post #12

> In the worst-case scenario, in which sea levels rise by six feet by 2100, ... Where does six feet come from? It seems very suspicious. It contradicts NOAA Sea Level Trends data of tide gauge measurements, going back to 1930 and sometimes earlier. According to the map, in almost all places in US the projected sea level trend is no more than 1-1.5 feet by 2100: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html…

Well, considering that global CO2 emission has been steadily increasing [1], and sea level rise tends to follow CO2 level, it's very unlikely that it will continue to increase linearly...

[1] https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emiss...

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#59

Post by dkarras »

IanDrake wrote: post #39
lxcfan wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Real estate prices are priced by mostly by current demand, not future oncoming disasters. Much waterfront property is _already_ vulnerable (and expensive to insure) today, regardless of whether you believe in consensus climate science, due to storms and flooding in current climatic conditions. That house by the ocean is going to destroyed at some point, the only question is when and how.

Well, I don't believe in "consensus" [insert field] science because that's an oxymoron. If you still believed what was once the consensus, you would believe in some crazy stuff. Science is skeptism of the consensus, not the other way around.

>Science is skeptism of the consensus

As long as the skepticism is evidence based, of course.

Re: Where America's climate migrants will go as sea level rises

#60

Post by trcarney »

slg wrote: post #38

This seems to only be factoring in oceans. Won't the sea level rising have a huge impact on the rivers and floodplains in the middle of the country that this predicts will see a big influx of people? There is plenty of high elevation coastal land that I would expect to be safer than land on the banks of the Mississippi River.

Rivers and floodplains wouldn't be effected by the rising sea level. River systems get their water from precipitation not the sea. The only effect a sea level rise would have on a river system is the delta of the river would move further inland with the coast line.

However, one could argue there would be an increase in precipitation as less water is trapped in ice but that doesn't seem to be what many people are predicting. I say all this with the caveat that I am not very well read up on the science of all of this, I'm just going by what I have read in articles and what not.

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