Can we have prosperity without growth? No. Can we have sustainability with growth? No. Then we can not have prosperity and sustainability. Can we afford not having sustainability? No. Then we can not afford prosperity.
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Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?
71–80 of 343 posts
Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?
#72Cue to a physicists view on this subject (starting from basic termodynamic principles): https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist...
You also have the club of rome that used system theory and arrive the conclusion that growth have phisical limits [1].
We can also see the work of Vaclav Smil [2]
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7Z6h-U4CmI&t=187s [2] https://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/Growth
Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?
#73It’s fascinating how the reality of Earth being embedded in a vast ocean of resource is completely lost on so many. Human ingenuity is key. With every step we unlock another level of resource utilization driving prosperity. If anything social organization and financial frameworks need to support the unfolding of our technology tree. As humanity we just woke up. Enlightenment now.
Embedded in a vast ocean of mostly unattainable resources, pipe dreams of "conquering the universe" aside.
Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
Malthus was proven wrong by productivity gains. England did not starve due to a rising population, but went on to become an industrialized nation. Increased population allows for greater specialization. This only holds true as long as free markets are allowed to operate somewhat unimpeded. Typically the Malthusian position is one that advocates excessive government intervention. When taken to an extreme this can make…
> Increased population allows for greater specialization Can you elaborate on this point w.r.t the OP you’re discussing?
IMO, he puts forward a purely economic approach about how to produce enough to ensure a growing population remains materially prosperous.
This blissfully ignores the key issue under discussion: Our impact on the planet in doing so.
Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?
#75But why? The universe is so vast and under-populated it's hard to make a case why growth would be constrained.
We don't live in the universe at large, we live on Earth. Until someone takes us there or shows us how to go practically, and bring stuff back practically (not with e.g. "generation ships" and not with hand-waving about what we could or could not do with "ingenuity" in 100 years), we should not use a mere wish as a permission to not respect the hard present limits.
(That's not something said against the idea of space exploration. In the contrary, not respecting those limits might be the very reason why we never reach the universe -- e.g. because we collapse before we have a chance. Same in this regard as our playing with nukes and other careless follies).
Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Increased population allows for greater specialization Can you elaborate on this point w.r.t the OP you’re discussing?
His point is that you need less human labor to produce the same amount of stuff. Thus with a growing population you have ever increasing productivity, helping you offset potential negative effects of population. That is just one of the effect that work together to over and over again prove the 'over-population' crowd wrong.
> Thus with a growing population you have ever increasing productivity, helping you offset potential negative effects of population.
I’m not sure I follow. How will we prevent over-fishing for example? Traffic? Deforestation? I think you can blunt the effects of overpopulation for humans (we probably won’t starve) but at what cost?
How will specialization affect human health and happiness? Are people who specialize in a very specific thing more happpy (or less) than people who do general tasks?
I would argue even right now we have plenty of people without meaningful work - how will increases in population improve that?
Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
> fewer babies That is happening. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#growthrate
Yes but is it happening fast enough, and at what level does the population stabilize at?
Current forecasts are than we'll add about 3 billion human beings before population stabilises.
If you also take into account that the majority of human beings are poor by Western standards you can see that, IMO, sustainable global prosperity is likely impossible with these numbers, not least if we want to keep at least some wilderness on this planet.
Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
The way I think of it is that in order for debt to exist, interest on the debt must be paid. But to pay interest, you must create more value than the debt you incurred, otherwise you'd not have enough to pay the interest! But the other side of debt is somebody's deposit. So if you summed the debt, it must be equal to all deposit. So from where would the interest come from? It must come from new production. But intere…
I think there is something wrong with your premises. There is no rule of law nor nature that interest must be paid. Negative or zero interest are completely possible.
but if someone loaned out money to somebody else, you'd expect that they'd ask for interest payment.
negative interest rates seems like it's an impossibility (in the sense that only a central bank is willing and able to charge negative rates) for normal commercial loans. And if a bank charged negative rates on deposits (higher than it costs to keep cash safe in a secure safe!), then i suspect people will just withdraw their cash, unless something forces them to keep it in (like the abolishment of cash by central authorities).
Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?
#79Cue to a physicists view on this subject (starting from basic termodynamic principles): https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist...
Do the Math is one of my favorite sites on the internet for the value and perspective it brings. I had a few great conversations with its author on my podcast http://joshuaspodek.com/guests/tom-murphy.
I found this report valuable too: Decoupling debunked – Evidence and arguments against green growth as a sole strategy for sustainability: https://eeb.org/library/decoupling-debunked.
Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?
#80It’s fascinating how the reality of Earth being embedded in a vast ocean of resource is completely lost on so many. Human ingenuity is key. With every step we unlock another level of resource utilization driving prosperity. If anything social organization and financial frameworks need to support the unfolding of our technology tree. As humanity we just woke up. Enlightenment now.
> Human ingenuity is key
That's a bet that many of us are not willing to take. Sure, you can imagine that a future technology we haven't thought of yet will save growth, but I think it's very important to think about scenarios when that won't happen. Are we really wanting to bet humanity's future on just "technology"?
If you read Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed[1], you'll realize that socities that did collapse were over confident. Let's no repeat that mistake.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse%3A_How_Societies_Choo...