Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

131–140 of 332 posts

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#131

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

chipsa wrote: post #123
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If in 40 years, my kids ask me what I did to prevent climate change, I feel like I'll have an answer I'll be proud of. Doesn't it kind of feel like this is the equivalent of a kid in the 70's asking why their parents didn't stop World War 2? We absolutely need to be as vocal as possible, but as individuals, outside of trying to get people with power to affect the change we need, I don't know what we can expect to a…

Why would we have wanted to stop WW2? WW2 was an objectively good war for the Allies to fight (not that the Allies had a choice, as it only takes 1 side to start a war).

I feel like you're missing my point, but I'll concede it may have been a bad example, even though I find it hard to argue that it was good that all those people died, which would be a child's understanding of the event.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#132

Post by freeflight »

Angostura wrote: post #101
justadudeama wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are valid points, and it is important to figure out what changes in the model is causing such a dramatic change and scrutinize it more. > The ability for science to change and adapt is what makes it so strong To me this article is them _resisting_ change, looking for a reason NOT to accept it, because it goes against what they previously said. Maybe this is all to early, and in a year or so we will be seeing 4…

Again, that's the way that science tends to operate - a la Kuhn and his Structure of Scientific Revolutions. You have some novel research that seems to contradict well-established consenus. It comes under close scrutiny, because science tends to be conservative. If after giving it a good kicking, its clear that the old consensus is wrong, science takes the wrecking ball to it. But it prefers not to get the wrecking b…

> You have some novel research that seems to contradict well-established consenus. It comes under close scrutiny, because science tends to be conservative.

Indeed, even people we nowadays consider brilliant minds of their time, encountered plenty of resistance [0] during these very same times because their proposed ideas just seemed too outrageous.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_theory_of_rel...

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#133

Post by microtonal »

HenryKissinger wrote: post #93
jokoon wrote: post #90

I live in a small, old apartment in the EU, without proper AC. I'm pretty worried about the next summer. I can crash at a friend where the temperature never went above 26C last summer, despite a heatwave. I always hope that if heatwaves keep coming summer after summer, governments/the UN will take tough decisions. If nothing is done and summers are too hot, I clearly see people protesting/striking/blocking roads/etc…

You should get an AC unit. A window one if you have the right kind of window, or a larger, mobile one.

More AC units are going to make the problem worse as long as we are not using solar/wind/hydro/nuclear-power.

Last summer when there was a heat wave here, lot of people bought ACs. Next year, they are also switching them on when it's 30 degrees Celsius outside.

The irony.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#134

Post by lbsnake7 »

anonuser123456 wrote: post #103
lbsnake7 wrote: post #30

I’m a climate change skeptic almost entirely because I don’t trust models. I believe there are too many dynamic things happening in the world for anyone to be able to predict accurately say the next 100 years (solar, earthquakes, volcanoes etc). One way to make me a believer though is an experiment: if I were to give you a 100 year stretch of history and you were able to accurately predict with the models what exactl…

>I’m a climate change skeptic almost entirely because I don’t trust models. You don't have to believe the models: https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf

My argument to this would be that changing our world because of a faulty model system would be disastrous. Because of the advancements of the last two centuries more people have had food and water and basic necessities being met then at any time in history (and yet we still have billions suffering). Worsening their lives over something that might not happen is not a good way to run the world. The models being accurate is important so that if we do implement policy that end up worsening people’s lives we have proof that it is worth it.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#135

Post by hannob »

lbsnake7 wrote: post #30

I’m a climate change skeptic almost entirely because I don’t trust models. I believe there are too many dynamic things happening in the world for anyone to be able to predict accurately say the next 100 years (solar, earthquakes, volcanoes etc). One way to make me a believer though is an experiment: if I were to give you a 100 year stretch of history and you were able to accurately predict with the models what exactl…

The best thing we can do to see if the models work is to look how they performed compared to reality in the decades since we have climate models. Turns out: They worked really, really well. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/201...

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#136

Post by zyxzevn »

fabian2k wrote: post #10

The title seems like clickbait, and the last part of the article does explain that the scientists actually know that new cloud models are mostly responsible for the change. The big question is then of course whether the new cloud model is wrong and the temperature increase therefore as well, or whether the new cloud model is more accurate than previous ones and the temperature increase is a real effect. I found anoth…

Shock: Climate science is not settled.

Currently studying solar energy transfers via hot solar particles, latest hot topic.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#137

Post by giarc »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #49
giarc wrote: post #29

If you are like me, you hate reading articles like this. You know there is a problem but you feel like you can't do anything about it. You recycle, you turn off lights, you have a programmable thermostat but you know it's a drop in the ocean. I finally decided to do something about it last fall. I researched and have committed to purchasing green power. Every month I purchase 850 kWh for $22 from Bullfrog Power (a Ca…

> If in 40 years, my kids ask me what I did to prevent climate change, I feel like I'll have an answer I'll be proud of. Doesn't it kind of feel like this is the equivalent of a kid in the 70's asking why their parents didn't stop World War 2? We absolutely need to be as vocal as possible, but as individuals, outside of trying to get people with power to affect the change we need, I don't know what we can expect to a…

>You just can't do enough diet modifications, carbon footprint reduction, or recycling to have it matter on a global scale.

I used to think like that. I used to think "There's nothing I can do, why do anything." Then I had kids and I realized that I need to be able to tell them I did something. Our world might be a wasteland of burnt forests and flooded cities, but at least I will be able to look my children in the eye and say "I tried."

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#138

Post by protanopia »

lucisferre wrote: post #87
protanopia wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It certainly does hurt the credibility of people saying we need drastic changes now based upon the models. If the answer might change next year, then making a drastic change based upon the current projections seems foolhardy.

Yes it would be terribly foolhardy for us to stop polluting the atmosphere prematurely.

Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#139

Post by mondoshawan »

leifdenby wrote: post #47

There is a big observational campaign happening right now that is trying to get to the heart of this called EUREC4A (main website: http://eurec4a.eu and information sheet: http://eurec4a.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/eurec4a/2019/Press/E... ). The key uncertainty between different climate models is whether shallow clouds in the tropics (which in general cool the Earth through radiation) will disappear or not and make our…

Can we get the source for the models?
Post reply on HN