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Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

bloomberg.com

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Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#41

Post by lllr_finger »

giarc wrote: post #29

If you are like me, you hate reading articles like this. You know there is a problem but you feel like you can't do anything about it. You recycle, you turn off lights, you have a programmable thermostat but you know it's a drop in the ocean. I finally decided to do something about it last fall. I researched and have committed to purchasing green power. Every month I purchase 850 kWh for $22 from Bullfrog Power (a Ca…

That's awesome and I'm right there with you on wanting to do more.

Have you considered your next step, and do you have any suggestions? Purchasing green power is such a minor sacrifice for my household, I'm still looking for something more.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#42

Post by DennisP »

lbsnake7 wrote: post #30

I’m a climate change skeptic almost entirely because I don’t trust models. I believe there are too many dynamic things happening in the world for anyone to be able to predict accurately say the next 100 years (solar, earthquakes, volcanoes etc). One way to make me a believer though is an experiment: if I were to give you a 100 year stretch of history and you were able to accurately predict with the models what exactl…

People use models to try to nail down the details, not to see whether climate change from CO2 emissions is a real thing. That's well established by physics and geological history. A good presentation of this evidence is in a couple chapters of Hansen's Storms of My Grandchildren.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#43

Post by pacala »

adrianN wrote: post #3

Well, politicians aren't doing anything anyway, whether the models predict catastrophe or CATASTROPHE. Already according to the 3° sensitivity predictions we would need an effort that rivals WW2 to stay below 1.5°. Yet major countries are led by climate denialists.

Major countries are led by popular demands. Minor countries as well.

Vast overuse of energy resources is a pattern intertwined with modern life, from housing to transportation to food to recreation. The people demand having a vehicle with more than 100hp at their whim. Now picture a herd of 100 horses for every person on Earth. It is political suicide to propose cutting down to ecological sustainable levels of 1 horse per person. That's before we take in account the population explosion of 5-10-20x compared to pre-industrial levels. Not sure where you even begin implementing policies to reduce the population levels to ecological sustainable levels.

As a species, we are simply incapable to comprehend that the way out of poverty is intelligent frugality. Instead, we attempt to brute force our way. The effort needed to fall back into an ecological sustainable band far surpasses WW2, and no one wants to hear about the actual costs. Nothing will change until mother Nature will do the change for us. The hard way.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#44

Post by Gravityloss »

giarc wrote: post #29

If you are like me, you hate reading articles like this. You know there is a problem but you feel like you can't do anything about it. You recycle, you turn off lights, you have a programmable thermostat but you know it's a drop in the ocean. I finally decided to do something about it last fall. I researched and have committed to purchasing green power. Every month I purchase 850 kWh for $22 from Bullfrog Power (a Ca…

This is why we have democracies, legislation and international treaties.

Trying to solve it on individual goodwill of course helps but is not enough by itself.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#46

Post by iongoatb »

screye wrote: post #27
iongoatb wrote: post #16

...

I don't see how you brought socialism into any of this. Ironically, socialism is being sold as a solution that you yourself make very clear. That, the pace of scientific progress is really fast ,and automation is going to make a lot of jobs obsolete. Socialism (in the nordic sense, ie. capitalism with social welfare) is being proposed as a solution to rising inequality and unregulated for-profit forces in the free ma…

Unbelievable that people believe that the Nordic model of capitalism is "socialism". Capitalism with social welfare is not socialism.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#47

Post by leifdenby »

There is a big observational campaign happening right now that is trying to get to the heart of this called EUREC4A (main website: http://eurec4a.eu and information sheet: http://eurec4a.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/eurec4a/2019/Press/E...). The key uncertainty between different climate models is whether shallow clouds in the tropics (which in general cool the Earth through radiation) will disappear or not and make our planet even warmer - some models predict this (!)

We are 100s of individuals from more than 30 national and international partner institutions with planes, drones, ships, ground stations and autonomous buoys trying to understand how and why these clouds form, how that links to their environment, dust from Africa, the ocean current, the jetstream aloft, etc. The positions of the different platforms can be seen live on the main website and the data we are producing is appearing on there too.

If you have any questions about what we're doing I'd be very happy to help or point you towards the right people :)

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#48

Post by oezi »

giarc wrote: post #29

If you are like me, you hate reading articles like this. You know there is a problem but you feel like you can't do anything about it. You recycle, you turn off lights, you have a programmable thermostat but you know it's a drop in the ocean. I finally decided to do something about it last fall. I researched and have committed to purchasing green power. Every month I purchase 850 kWh for $22 from Bullfrog Power (a Ca…

How about carbon offsetting your own life and that of your children?

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#49

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

giarc wrote: post #29

If you are like me, you hate reading articles like this. You know there is a problem but you feel like you can't do anything about it. You recycle, you turn off lights, you have a programmable thermostat but you know it's a drop in the ocean. I finally decided to do something about it last fall. I researched and have committed to purchasing green power. Every month I purchase 850 kWh for $22 from Bullfrog Power (a Ca…

> If in 40 years, my kids ask me what I did to prevent climate change, I feel like I'll have an answer I'll be proud of.

Doesn't it kind of feel like this is the equivalent of a kid in the 70's asking why their parents didn't stop World War 2? We absolutely need to be as vocal as possible, but as individuals, outside of trying to get people with power to affect the change we need, I don't know what we can expect to accomplish. You just can't do enough diet modifications, carbon footprint reduction, or recycling to have it matter on a global scale.

Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why

#50

Post by lazyjones »

jknoepfler wrote: post #35
lbsnake7 wrote: post #30

I’m a climate change skeptic almost entirely because I don’t trust models. I believe there are too many dynamic things happening in the world for anyone to be able to predict accurately say the next 100 years (solar, earthquakes, volcanoes etc). One way to make me a believer though is an experiment: if I were to give you a 100 year stretch of history and you were able to accurately predict with the models what exactl…

So if I asked you to bet at 50/50 odds that next year would be colder on average than this year, you'd take the bet?

That's not what climate is about. Also, it depends on location, in many places it was colder in 2019 than in 2018. If you're talking about some calculated "global" temperature, it doesn't exist in a valid form.
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